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Wednesday, March 16, 2016

2016 NCAA Tournament Preview: V is For Value...


OK, friends. So I gave it a think, and I figured that this was the best way to go about preparing you for the all important filling out of your NCAA tourney pool brackets. It's simple, it's easy, and best of all, it's quick! So, without further dudes. Here's your primer:

Step 1: Go to KenPom.com, and check for value. Ken Pomeroy's (that's Ken up there grinning like a serial killer) "tempo-free" statistical breakdown is the most comprehensive thing going. And you can quickly find said value amongst his plethora of information by simply comparing his overall ranking and the team's seed in the big dance.

Example: Wichita St. is his 12th rated team, yet the tournament committee only saw fit to judge them as the 41st to 44th best squad.

So, yeah. That would be perceived as potential value. And it doesn't hurt my process that Wichita St. just won their play in game by 20 over KenPom's 29th ranked Vanderbilt Commodores. So, yeah. Sometimes things work. Now let's just hope that this tournament is one of those times...

And that's it! BOOM! Step 1, and step DONE! See? Nice and easy, just like I promised. Oh, and as I promised last week, here's my Final Four. See? I'm just one of those ultimate promise keepers. That, or I'm an attention seeking degnerati. But that's for you to judge. As are these:


SOUTH: Kansas
WEST: Oregon
EAST: North Carolina
MIDWEST: Michigan St.

I don't trust (KenPom's #1 rated) Kansas further than I could throw Villanova (KP's #5, whom I also don't usually trust come tourney time). But the Jayhawks will be the most popular pick as champion. Therefore, there really isn't any value in picking against (or 'fading') them. At least not until the Final Four. That's not always the strategy, mind you. But I think it's a good one to utilize this time around. Then again, I've had that squad donkey punch my brackets into oblivion more times than I'd like to admit. So there's always that, too...

And while Oregon is the worst KenPom rated team (#9) to ever be granted a #1 seed by the selection committee in the 15 years of his ratings, they've got 2 things going for them which I really like. Besides the already beneficial facts that they're one of the hotter teams in the country, that they're well equipped (see: depth and versatility) for an extended run, and that they're largely unknown due to the fact that they play when most of the "experts" (see: east coasters) are already asleep (see: cruising PornHub). And those things are:


1. The only other KenPom Top 10 team in the West is #8 Oklahoma

AND

2. #3 seeded Texas A&M (#17 in KenPom) is likely to be a very trendy pick, after nearly beating Kentucky in the SEC final. Meaning Oregon could be the 3rd most popular pick from the region, despite being it's #1 seed.

Now it's not that there's anything wrong with either Oklahoma or A&M. They're both very capable of making deep runs. But it's not as if Oregon, who probably shouldn't have been given a #1 seed, is in a particularly stacked region, either. Hell, there's just a lot of value there, OK?! For like the half-a-dozen reasons I just listed. And there are few things that excite me more than finding value spots in games of chance, and rooting for a team with an arsenal of dangerously colorful uniforms...

So sign me up, Teds! Because it's time to FORM THE V!!!! Or maybe it's "knucklepuck time"? I often have trouble differentiating between the two. Either way. Oregon. They could be a in a good spot to help you rake in that sweet, sweet casheesh. OR they could lose to St. Joe's in Rd 2, and completely bust your bracket. In which case you'll blame me on your private social media account, and I won't ever see it. So, yeah. Either way...


And there you have it. I gave you a method, threw in some of my own prophetic thoughts, and even managed make an appropriate reference that helped legitimize the title of my post. All in all, I'd say that this has been a pretty successful venture. Something you'll hopefully be able to say when all of the dust has settled, and you're left with nothing but positive memories and a fist full of cash...

So good luck, my damies. And I'll catch you next week. When we'll analyze the fallout, and curse the day on which Ken Pomeroy was born. Probably...

Enjoy the games, Teds. And be good...


#BAGSMUNMAN

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