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Friday, September 19, 2014

Week 3 Picks: The Bad News Buffet...


"You only find out who was swimming naked when the tide rolls out."
That's one of my favorite quotes, right there. One I've heard attributed to legendary investor, Warren Buffett. Though I've also been told it's a reworked piece of scripture from the Bible. Now, I tend to think that everyone was swimming naked back in the Bible days, so I'm a little skeptical. And speaking of the Bible days, how terrible must it have been to go to the bathroom back then? Yeah, I'm imagining it was unpleasant at best. Probably bad enough to drive anyone to wish that they were left to die hanging from a piece of wood rather than having to put up with using your sand covered hand to cleanse digested goat chunks from your undoubtedly sand covered annus. Not sure why I felt the need to mention that, but here we are...

Well, disgusting and nonsensical segues aside. That quote really nails what's at the heart of this NFL domestic violence debacle. Which is the fact that the NFL (namely Roger Goodell) wasn't prepared for any of this, and is ill equipped to deal with anything other than blindly signing the multi-billion dollar TV deals that are carried to its doorstep. Case in point, this sketchy press release that tries to sound proactive, but is really just a smokescreen meant to put the public at ease while the league continues to weather the storm...
This guy gets it...

Yep, Commissioner Goodell and the powers that be were caught skinny dipping, and now they're left with their limp, and undoubtedly wrinkled dongs just flappin' in the breeze for all the world to see. And needless to say, the public hasn't particularly enjoyed the free show (we're notorious sticklers for unsoliciTed male nudity)...

Now, lucky for the pantless emperors, they still happen to be the only slangers in town that provide us with our drug of choice (pro football), and we're all too weak/apathetically indifferent to quit cold turkey. So they should still be able to ultimately brush this dirt off their collective shoulders (you KNOW you saw what I just did there, too), and continue raking in the cakes without any major impunity. At least for the foreseeable future...

But the infallible illusion that was "the shield" has been forever tarnished, and only time will tell if this is all a mere bump in the road to continued prosperity, or the start of a slippery slope that ends with the downfall of the NFL as we know it. I'd bet on the former, and you should too. As all of these bluffs disguised as ACTION! from their major sponsors should ultimately prove to be exactly that, and the public will quickly move on from feeling outraged, and move onto the next cause du jour. But hey, stranger things have happened. Like say, the rise of a generally complex and powerful culture that is still frighteningly unsure about how to react to the public beatings of it's women and children. So I suppose anything is possible...

Oh, and while you're betting on the demise of our society and it's principles, feel free to bet on a few actual games this weekend as well. I know I took it on the chin, last week. But considering I didn't take a tree branch to the junk from one of my parents, I figure I got off pretty easy. So I got that goin' for me, which is nice...

Enjoy..


Week 3 Picks

New England Patriots (-14.5) vs Oakland Raiders

Per usual, I'll start with the Patriots. And yes, I'll submit that 14 is too many points for any team to be reasonably spotted. But Tom Brady is pissed. And it's the kind of "we may have won by 30 last week but we're still not up to my lofty standards" pissed that makes everyone outside of New England hate his gorgeous guts. Lucky for bettors, it's the same kind of pissed that tends to  Tommy B and the boys running up the score on their next opponent...

So, yeah. Good luck Oakland. Because you're gonna need it. Because HELL KNOWS NO WRATH LIKE AN ENTITLED PRETTY BOY WITH INCREDIBLY LOFTY STANDARDS!...


Cincinnati Bengals (-6) vs Tennessee Titans

I heard someone say that Andy Dalton had yet to be sacked this season. I didn't bother to look up if that were true or not, but it certainly sounds like something that could be true. And if he can stay upright for a 3rd straight game, there's no reason his more talented Bengals squad shouldn't find themselves in position to cover what would otherwise be a rather generous number...


Green Bay Packers (+2.5) @ Detroit Lions + OVER 52

San Diego Chargers (+2) @ Buffalo Bills

Dancing with the ROAD DOG can often be a dangerous proposition, but these two spots just offer too much value to pass up. Besides, who's really gonna turn down a dance with a dangerous dog? I know I wouldn't. And you best not be turnin' down no road dog dance in Adrian Peterson's house, lest you want to get the switch!

And, yeah. I know beating your kids isn't anything to joke or laugh about. But it's just so absurd a notion to me that I really can't help myself at laugh at the situation. Not the victims, the situation. It probably isn't helping that every time I picture Adrian Peterson getting a "switch" I imagine him as "Powder", the pimp from Method Man and Redman's How High. "COME WIT IT!!"...

Too soon, I know. But I'VE BEEN PIMPIN' SINCE BEEN PIMPIN' SINCE BEEN PIMPIN'. So it can't be helped. Sorry...(nah)


Cleveland Browns (+2.5) vs Baltimore Ravens

OK, back to the positive vibes. And there aren't any more positive vibes in the league than those emanating off the dome of that guy from Pawn Stars, up there. Who seems to now be coaching his own professional football team. Which makes sense to me. I mean, I know I'd have pawned the Browns long ago for a vintage gumball machine or Heisnberg's original hat. I probably wouldn't have gone to a bunch of desert dwelling mouth breathers on the verge of diabetes to do so. But it would have gotten done...


Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) vs Denver Broncos

In the Super Bowl rematch, you've gotta like the Seahawks to hold court. If for no other reason than that they continue to look unbeatable in their own building. Ojh, right. And WEED WEED, BOTH OF THESE TEAMS COME FROM STATES WHERE YOU CAN LEGALLY BUY WEED! OMG!


Carolina Panthers (-3.5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Finishing off the Sunday slate, I'll take "toned down" Cam Newton and the Panthers to win a game that will likely evoke the words "sandlot" and "pickup game". Mostly because every game the Steelers play in these days tends to evoke those words (probably due to Big Ben's penchant for leaving the pocket), and justifiably so. Win or lose, they just always seem to be playing by the seat of their pants over the last few seasons. And I expect this game to be no different...



As for some of the less appealing games on the slate, here you are. And, yes. I'm all in on Kirk Cousins. I mean, I'm pretty sure the Eagles are due to smoke somebody. And the Tedskins more than fit that bill. But this whole Cousins/Griffin thing has legs. And you KNOW it has legs. So  if that's really the case, then Cousins is going to have to put on a show in order to keep this a relevant story. And I've already said it has legs, which means at the very least a backdoor cover should be in the offing...


San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals

Dallas Cowboys (-1) @ St. Louis Rams

Washington Tedskins (+6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles

Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

New Orleans Saints (-9.5) vs Minnesota Vikings

New York Giants (+3) vs Houston Texans

Miami Dolphins (-4) vs Kansas City Chiefs + UNDER 44


Monday Night

Chicago Bears (+2.5) @ New York Jets

So last week, I talked about trap spreads. I also ignored my own advice in taking Atlanta (+5.5) @ Cincy even though I told you it reeked of deceit. And I'm gonna do that again with this pick, taking the Bears as a road dog against a clearly inferior opponent. Probably means that Jay Cutler is going to wet himself this week instead of last, when he ruined my betting card. But I'm not nearly confident enough in my ability to control the world with my whims where I can justify passing up what otherwise looks like a pretty tasty spot. And, besides. You know what they say. DANCE WIT THE ROAD DOG THAT BRUNG YA! At least I'm sure they say that somewhere. Probably the same places where they continue to pick sand from their battered goat holes...


Last Week: 6-10-0

Overall: 18-17-0 (.514)*

*includes Thursday Night Twitter picks


Rounding out my selections this week, I've decided to go with my all time favorite co-ed shot to help sway the karma back in my general direction. Probably doesn't help that I'm picking against Oklahoma while posting this picture. But rare is the time that I'd pass on the Fighting Pittsnogle's at home when they're getting points. Even if it means running the risk of disappointing the nation's best cleavage...

Oh, and Jameis Winston is a Ted. That is all...


NCAA Top 25 Picks
(22) Clemson (+20) @ (1) Florida St.

(3) Alabama (-14.5) vs Florida

West Virginia (+7.5) vs (4) Oklahoma

(6) Texas A&M (-32) @ SMU

Mississippi St. (+9.5) @ (8) LSU

Bowling Green (+29) @ (17) Wisconsin

(21) BYU (-14) vs Virginia

(24) Nebraska (-7.5) @ Miami


Last Week: 4-4-0

Overall: 7-8-0 (.467)


And that's all for me, friends. I hope I've aided in your degeneracy, and I'll catch you next time...

Oh, and don't abuse your kids. Not cool, America. NOT COOL!

Be good...


#BAGSMUNMAN

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