Friday, September 05, 2014

Week 1 Picks: Let's Roll...

Well, my friends. Are you ready to roll? Because the NFL season is already poppin' off. And if you follow my advice, you and your bankroll will be in pure ecstasy before the weekend is through...

And seeing those are all of the Molly puns I seem to be able to muster, let's get right down to business...



Week 1 Picks

New England Patriots (-4.5) @ Miami Dolphins

I'll start the week where I always start, with the Patriots. And despite their historic struggles in Miami, I'll lean on New England's improved defense and the fact that they haven't lost a season opener since 2003. GranTed, this REEKS of a game that the Patriots will only manage to win by a field goal, there's no way I'm starting my season off by siding with such a decided underdog in what's more or less a very thin spot...

Chicago Bears (-7) vs Buffalo Bills

Next up, we have the Bears. Who, like the Patriots, should have no problem overwhelming their AFC East foe with a far superior offense. IT doesn't hurt that the Bills have been a mess all preseason, and are still led by both an inexperienced head coach and QB. But this is mostly about the Bears being at home, and having what should be one of the best offenses in the NFL...

Atlanta Falcons (+3) vs New Orleans Saints + OVER 51

OK, so you got me. I fell for the oldest joke in the book. AKA watching Hard Knocks, and promptly giving the featured team more credit than it deserves. But, whatever. Bryan Cox is hilarious, and the fact that he allegedly started having sex at 10 years old is enough for me. OK, I like the spot at home, too. And the fact that the Falcons likely sport the best WR corps in the league. But having a serial fornicator with a penchant for cigars on your headlines doesn't hurt, either...

Minnesota Vikings (+4) @ St. Louis Rams

I'm higher on the Vikings this season than most. And while I don't consider them world beaters or contenders by any stretch, I'll gladly take them getting spotted 4 points against a team that's seemingly without any sort of offensive identity. Especially when that team is already down to their 2nd string QB...

San Francisco 49ers (-5) @ Dallas Cowboys

In Dallas, you can count me amongst the masses that are predicting (and looking forward to) the Dallas Cowboys finally falling completely apart. Mostly because I don't think their defense is healthy or talented enough, and their offensive stars are too oft injured. But mostly because I can't wait for the talking Teds and their hot takes on the Big D's demise. "OMG I CAN'T BELIEVE THE COWBOYS PASSED ON MANZIEL!! JERRY JONES IS SLIPPIN', GUY! FIRE THE GINGAHHHHH!!!"

Oh, that's right. I won't even be listening to or watching those Teds and their takes. Meh, either way. Predictability can be a comforting thing. And I for one expect to be very comfortable in watching Dallas' latest attempt at underachievement...

As for the rest of the slate. I like Tampa much the same way I like the Vikings, though if Cam Newton plays I'd take those points. I'm also not sure why the betting public is so down on the Chiefs (or high on the Titans), but that looks like a particularly tasty spot as well...

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) vs Tennessee Titans

New York Jets (-5.5) vs Oakland Raiders

Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Cleveland Browns (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens

Houston Texans (-3) vs Washington Tedskins

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2) vs Carolina Panthers

Denver Broncos (-7.5) vs Indianapolis Colts

Monday Night

San Diego Chargers (+3) @ Arizona Cardinals

Detroit Lions (-5) vs New York Giants

Rounding out week 1, we have a pair of games that only a mother (or a fantasy player...or someone on "a Molly") could love...

I like the Chargers, because I think they're offense is shadily going to be one of the best in the league (new OC, Ryan Mathews contract year, etc.). And going against an already dinged up Arizona defense shouldn't hurt...

In the nightcap, I'm not really sure why I like the Lions. But I do. Probably because the Giants shit the bed out of the gate last season, and I still don't have a handle on their offense. OR at least that's what I'll claim I used as logic if the Lions should actually cover the number. But this is more me turning a jaundiced eye to the Giants than buying into the notion that the Lions are finally going to live up expectations...

Last Year: 153-134-10 (.532)
Overall: 1114-743-67 (.596)

Finishing up, we have the picks to click in college football's Top 25. Picks even shorter on hard analysis than the ones lisTed above. But, you know what? I always say it's better off to trust a successful man's gut than it is to make your own uninformed decisions based on numbers and trends you don't completely understand. And if nothing else, I'm good at picking college winners. So, I'm going with my gut, and you should too. Between those, and the guy of the lovely tented Wolverine, up there. I figure that should be plenty of guts to churn out the first of many profitable weeks to come...

NCAA Top 25 Picks
(7) Michigan St. (+12) @ (3) Oregon

(8) Ohio St. (-11) vs Virginia Tech

(14) USC (+3) @ (13) Stanford

(15) Ole Miss (-20) @ Vanderbilt

Michigan (+4) @ (16) Notre Dame

Iowa St. (+12) vs (20) Kansas St.

(21) South Carolina (-16.5) vs East Carolina

Last Year: 73-60-4 (.547)
Overall: 607-400-26 (.600)

And that's it for me, friends. A little light on the wit this week, I must admit. But I promise to make up for it next week. Besides, I'm sure my prophetic picks will more than make up for the lack of dick jokes and drug cracks, anyway...


Be good, my damies. And here's to a profitable weekend...



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