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Friday, January 31, 2014

Super Bowl Picks: Rock, Prop, Seahawk?


HEY THERE SUPER BOWL!

Yep, the "big game" is finally here. Much to the delight of all the local establishments offering "big game" deals. How funny is that shit? And it gets me every year. Freakin' NFL. Won't even freely license a name that was thought of by a little girl whilst playing with her Super Ball. But, whatever. Rampant capitalism aside, I'm extremely excited for this game. Hell, I've even found myself forgetting about Syracuse and Duke on Saturday night, from time to time. I've always remembered, which is what's great about memories. But there's just something about actually having the league's two best teams battle it out, with the world's greatest city serving as the backdrop, that's got me unusually pumped. That, and all the money that I'm going to make on all these prop bets! And it's mostly that. So, yeah. Let's get to those...

Enjoy...

Super Bowl Pick

Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) vs Denver Broncos + OVER 46.5

First things first, let's get to the game. I've liked the Seahawks in this spot since the line opened, mostly because I actually like them to win. Which is pretty much the only reason you ever should be picking a team to cover that's only being spotted 2 and a half points...

And, per usual, it's a combination of factors that I've led me to my selection. Most notably the physicality of the Seattle defense, and the officials' willingness to let them to continue to grab and hold in the manner in which they've become accustomed. Should the flags suddenly begin to rain? Well, then you can throw your betting slip right out the window. Right? Wrong. Because even if the game opens up, Denver's penchant for giving up the big play on defense should still allow Russell Wilson and his gaggle of "no name" receivers to keep pace with Peyton Manning's record setting offense. And keep an eye on the one Seattle receiver whose name you actually know (Percy Harvin). But we'll get to him later...

As for the game total, it's been shooting up since I locked in at 46.5, and all the value is now likely all but gone. That being said, I'd recommend taking any OVER in a cross-conference game after the incredible tear that trend went on in the second half of the regular season...

In the end, I see this coming down to something that Patriots' fans have seen many times before. A kicker, from Massachusetts, breaking a tie score as time expires to give his team the championship. OK, maybe Vinatieri wasn't from Massachusetts and only played for a team from Massachusetts. But Seattle's Steven Hauschka is from Needham. He didn't play football there, he played soccer (barf). But I'll still be proud to claim him as our own if he's able to come through in the clutch and make me look prophetic. Despite his faux-Euro, orange slice eating past...

Should be a great game, though. Even if it somehow doesn't work out exactly as I've predicted. But if I'm betting, I'm taking Seattle. And, as fate would have it, I am betting. And I'm actually taking Seattle! So there's that, too. Feel free to incorporate that jinx/mush factor accordingly...


Seattle Seahawks 27 Denver Broncos 24


2013-2014 Picks: 151-134-10 (.529)

CAREER: 1102-740-66 (.595)


Now, it's on to the props...

Prop Bets

Obligatory Rick & Morty photo...

OK, quick prop bet primer. If there's a (-) in front of a number, then that's how much you would have to bet in order to win $100 should your side win. Therefore the (+) means that's how much you would win if you laid down $100. Simple enough, right? And what I'll be giving you are 3 "parlays", meaning that all of the bets within the parlay will need to hit in order for the bet to be considered a winner. It helps to juice the odds, ideally turning your small investment into a very big one. I've even got the parlay payout listed after each bet, thanks to this parlay calculator. Oh, and I got all my prop odds from Bovada. They've got plenty more where these came from, so go check those out when we're done here. But let's get started...

And where better to start, than by betting on our Nation's most sacred song? And no, I'm not talking about "Your Love" by The Outfield. Although I think we can all agree that would be a far superior song for which to pledge our allegiance. Agreed? Agreed. OK. Let's GO!

Anthem Parlay

Color of Renee Flemming's gloves during National Anthem: BLACK (EVEN)

Tempting to go WHITE @ +275, but this bare backed woman strikes me as a "don't wear white after Labor Day" type of gal. You know, a stuck up socialite bitch. What? Isn't that like a prerequisite to becoming an opera singer? Wasn't meant as an insult. It's just society, man. The parlance of our times, and whatnot...

National Anthem Over/Under 2:25: OVER (+120)

She's known as "America's Diva", so you know she'll be stretching notes. And she's backed by the New Jersey Orchestra, or some nonsense. So you can take solace in the fact that even if she somehow speeds through it, that a rogue note or two from the woodwinds could help push you past the 2:25. You know how those woodwinds can be. It's like a "last clap" contest with those arrogant bastards. Or so I've heard...

Will Fleming omit at least one word?: NO (-500)

Presuming she's smart, which is probably a mistake on my part. Now I'm convinced this bitch is gonna "wash" a rampart and we're all gonna be fucked. DAMMIT!

Will Knowshon Moreno cry during the anthem?: YES (+170)

He's going to have a lot of family at the game, so this seems like a gimmie given his propensity for tears. Then again, maybe because of that, he'll already be all cried out before Ms. Fleming starts to sing. Meh, either way. NO is (-250), making YES too good a value to pass up...

Parlay Total: (+613)

Halftime Parlay



What Will Bruno Mars be wearing on his head to start the halftime show?: NO HAT (+250)

I wouldn't know Bruno Mars if he walked in here and shot me, but that's not gonna stop me from betting on his actions. It will stop me from watching the halftime show, however. Especially if he comes strolling out with a hat on his head. A hat he seems to have on his head in every result for his name in Google Images. Hmmm...

Will halftime show break record for most watched ever (Madonna in 2012/114 million)?: NO (-300)

It takes a cross-generational draw like that withered old fish wife up there to draw the really big numbers, and the Ted Hot Chili Peppers are just not gonna get it done...

Will any member of the Red Hot Chili Peppers be shirtless during their performance?: NO (+135)

Well, let's see. Flea already asked his Twitter followers he they wanted him to whip out his cock during their performance. A tweet that was immediately taken down, likely at the behest of the NFL and it's sponsors. SO, yeah. I like my odds that, combined with the cold, the establishment will have come down hard enough on the one time punk icons that they'll be on their best behavior. Either that, or Flea will whip his cock out. A prop I would bet YES on if I see it offered...

Parlay Total: (+997)

In Game Parlay



Will Wes Welker score a TD?: NO (-135)

Where can I bet on whether or not he'll drop a crucial pass? Nowhere? Oh, OK. Well this works, too...

Will the announcers refer to Russell Wilson being drafted in the MLB?: YES (+135)

Announcers love to tell you how smart and well informed they are. Even more so than over zealous bloggers. It'll take one shot of him wearing a baseball cap on the the sidelines to cash this in. That is, if FOX doesn't already have an entire segment worked up on it. DID YOU KNOW?!?! OMG!!! NOW HERE'S TIME MACCARVER AND FLIPPY THE FOOTBALL TO TELL YOU MORE!!! (kills self and others)

Will Pass Interference be called against Richard Sherman?: YES (+150)

In the same vane as the broadcasters, the referees are also eager to show and tell you what they know. And, more importantly, they want to LET IT BE KNOWN that they have complete control of the game. That'll result in at least one call against the highly polarizing Sherman. That, and they probably have a bounty pool on his ass. That's right, NFL. Your underpaid refs are likely gambling among themselves on the games they're officiating. And when I say likely, I mean they are. I don't have any evidence, but I didn't have Lance Armstrong's blood test results, either. So, yeah. Think about that!...

Will Erin Andrews interview Richard Sherman LIVE on air after the game?: NO (-400)

If FOX were smart, they would MAKE this happen regardless of the game's result. But these are the same folks that thought "Sons of Tucson" was a good idea. So, yeah...

Now stay tuned for "Shovin' Buddies"...

Parlay Total: (+1180)

MVP



Russell Wilson/Marshawn Lynch (15/4)

Percy Harvin (16/1)

Champ Bailey/Kam Chancellor (75/1)

At 11/10, Manning is priced out. Leaving Seattle's top two offensive stars as the best bets. I wouldn't rule out a Terrell Owens like Super Bowl return for Percy Harvin, either. Even if he did look a little skittish his last time out. Not a great bet, because it's unlikely he could have a great game and outshine Wilson. But he's definitely a wild card, and priced well enough where I'd consider him worth the risk...

As for the two defensive backs, think Larry Brown (Dallas) and Dexter Jackson (Tampa). Who? Exactly. Both DBs won the Super Bowl MVP for their respective teams, while never being anything close to resembling their team's best player. Not even at their own position. Chancellor and Bailey fit that mold, here. While Sherman, at 20/1, just isn't giving me enough bang for my buck...


And there you have it. Hope you enjoyed my thoughts, musings, and baseless accusations. And I hope you enjoy the game. Catch you next week...


#BEATDUKE

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