Friday, October 19, 2012

NFL Week 7 Picks: Back To Basics...

You would think I'd be overjoyed. The NHL is still locked out, looking every bit the inept fools that I've long  accused them of being. And Lance Armstrong is finally getting some sort of  legitimate comeuppance, nearly a decade after I became sure that he was more a greedy cheater than a noble and charitable champion. But I'm not overjoyed. Sure, I'm somewhat relishing in my Nostrdamus like success. But with the Patriots toiling at 3-3 and my NFL picks getting dangerously close to heading into the red, it's tough for me to find much joy...

That's why this week, I'm going to back to some of my old handicapping standbys to help me right the ship, and help bring some joy back into my life. And by joy, I obviously mean money. Because Lord knows I haven't seen dollar one from being right about the unitard wearing blood doper...

Let's go!

Week 7 Picks

New England Patriots (-10.5) vs New York Jets

Let's start off with a handicapping tactic that I never seem to able to follow. The bigger the spread for the Patriots, the more likely they are to cover. OK, maybe this one isn't steeped in statistics, but I often find myself betting against the Pats whenever it looks like they aren't worthy of the spread. In most of those instances, as was the case last week with Denver, I take the underdog with the points, and end up on the losing end. Well, not this time...

Nope, this time I'm taking the Pats and the points. Doesn't hurt that they'll be wearing the same throwback uniforms that they wore nearly 3 years ago to the day when they laid that legendary 59-0 beat down on the Tennessee Titans, either. Just something about those uniforms, am I right? Yeah, I'm right...

All uniforms and betting strategies aside, I like the Pats in this game simply because they've shown the ability to bounce back in big home spots like this under Bill Belichick. Just when it appears they're losing some of their polish, they turn around and crack somebody in the face. It's not to say they'll rebound to run the table or anything like that. But at least for one week, they'll get back to at least looking like the world beaters that many of us thought they would be...    

Cleveland Browns (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts

Another strategy that has been kind to me applies here. When two crap teams are playing, always take the crappy team that's getting the points. That crap team in this instance, being the Cleveland Browns. Indy has proven that they're decent at home, but they've also shown to be woefully inconsistent. But again, I don't want to pretend like I really used any analysis to make this pick. I'm takin' the crap team with the points. That's the proven strategy. Gotta stick with it...

Oh, and as for Republican VP candidate, Paul Ryan, confusing Brandon Weeden and Colt McCoy? Good for him. I had totally forgotten Colt McCoy was even still on a team...

Carolina Panthers (+2) vs Dallas Cowboys

Arguably the technique I've had the most success with applies here. And that is: If multiple people bitch to you all season long about a particular fantasy player, it is inevitable that said player will have his game of the year when he eventually faces you. Well, I've heard from everyone and their mother this year about the struggles of Cam Newton (who I warned people not to draft, but let's not let any details get in the way), and now I finally come to face him. In two leagues at once, no less. That's why I'm confident that in week 7 against Dallas, "Big Fig" will riiiiiise again. He'll show the flash and the play making ability that made him a sensation in 2011, a high fantasy pick in 2012, and he'll do it all much to my dismay. Unless I get in on the action by taking Carolina and the points...

OK, so this is really just me hedging my bets. So sue me. But I know of what I speak. Cam Newton is due for a big game, if nothing else. And the mercurial Cowboys are just the team to accommodate him...

New York Giants (-5.5) vs Washington Redskins

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) @ St. Louis Rams

Were the New York/Washington game in prime time, I'd be opting for my "big players in big games" technique, and rolling with the Skins. But it's not, so I'm taking the Giants for the same reason I'm taking the Packers. Which is that they're both clearly playing some of the best football in the league. Sure, The G-Men are playing against a confident divisional foe and Green Bay is on the road coming off a short week, but both teams are playing at such a high level that I think those usual stumbling blocks won't serve as anything more than minor speed bumps...

You know what? I just read over all of that, and it sounds so much like sucker talk that now I want to pick the Rams and the Redskins. But I won't. Because that #1 rule is to always stick with your first instinct. Unless you're instincts suck. Mine obviously don't. Need I remind you. Lance Armstrong? Yeah, I didn't think so. Lay those points...    

Here's the rest of the slate. Never thought I'd be taking the Raiders as a favorite, but here we are...

Minnesota Vikings (-6) vs Arizona Cardinals

Buffalo Bills (-3) vs Tennessee Titans

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) vs New Orleans Saints

Baltimore Ravens (+6.5) @ Houston Texans

Oakland Raiders (-3.5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Monday Night

Chicago Bears (-6) vs Detroit Lions

The rule here is simple. Take the dominant defense against the struggling offense. Even if that dominant defense is accompanied by Smokin' Jay Cutler...

Last Week: 6-9-1

Overall: 58-48-4 (.545)

Twitter Picks: 12-5-0 (.706)

And since we're going old school this week, falling back on the rules and what not. I figured why not go with some vintage college tail, as well? Yep, that's Jenn Sterger. She of 'Brett Favre's wang' fame. And she arrives just in time for Florida St. to underwhelm against in state rival Miami. That's a good rule of thumb, too. Whenever there's anything on the line. Even if it's only Floridian pride. Pick against the Noles. Just make sure you tune in early enough to see their buxom fans in good spirits. Once they get sad they just look like strippers that are wishing they had their ticket money back so they could score an 8-ball. And nobody wants to see a sad girl thinking about coke. Unless of course you're a coke dealer. In which case, good for you. Somebody needs to be in charge of cheerin' those flesh farmers up...

NCAA Top 25 Picks
(1) Alabama (-20) @ Tennessee

(3) Florida (-3) vs (9) South Carolina

(17) West Virginia (-2) vs (4) Kansas St.

BYU (+14) @ (5) Notre Dame

(10) USC (-40) vs Colorado

Miami (+21.5) vs (12) Florida St.

(14) Clemson (-8.5) vs Virginia Tech

(18) Texas Tech (-2) @ TCU

Toledo (+7.5) vs (21) Cincinnati

(22) Stanford (-2.5) @ California

(23) Michigan (-10) vs Michigan St.

Last Week: 8-1-1

Overall: 36-26-2 (.578)

Before I go, a few congratulations are in order. I'd like to congratulate my older sister, Lisa, on her recent engagement, and I'd like to congratulate my friends Alexandra Routenberg and Tom DeBourcy on their upcoming wedding. See? Good things happen to good people. At least, sometimes they do. Best of luck to you all, and I'm so glad to see my good friends and family being able to fulfill their lifelong dreams. It really is a beautiful thing. Not as beautiful as an undefeated week would be, but you take what you can get. Mazel tov, my damies! And best wishes...

Teddy Williams...



Frosco said...

Suck it with your Nole talk!

Brett Ferruccio said...

Shouldn't you be a in a Google hangout discussing what you're going to do when you lose the game on a missed field goal?

PS - I advise your plan involve scoring some blow, and hitting the stadium parking lot.

Anonymous said...

Well played good sir and back to my weekly question. Except I'll ask you to give me the two picks of the week. Congrats to Lisa and before yes I'd like to be your plus one. Oppppen bar dude

Beware of Heap.....if you can't take the heap stay out of the kitchen

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