Friday, September 14, 2012

NFL Week 2 Picks: RG-Double D

So, did you follow me on Twitter and get last night's picks? No? Well then you missed out on me suggesting you take the Packers (-5) and the UNDER (51). You also missed me passing on solid information as to why the NHL fans are that league's own biggest enemy and my cracking wise about Jon Hamm and Larry David at the Red Sox game. Yup, that twitter is a magical place. And at the risk of spoiling that magical playground, I still suggest you get on board...

Now, let's get back to regular Interweb for a minute or two, and get to the business of breaking down what should predictably be another fantastic weekend full of football action...

Oh, and as for the busty Redskins cheerleader? She's just a busty Redskins cheerleader. My gift to you. It also provided for my lazily appropriate title. Two birds with one stone, baby. Or, as the case may be. Two massive stones that are apparently struggling for air...

Week 2 Picks

New England Patriots (-13.5) vs Arizona Cardinals

Bill Belichick may have made the Cardinals sound like football's version of the '27 Yankees during his weekly press conference, as is his wont. But that didn't prevent me from laying this hefty total when deciding to take the Pats. Bill did make a lot of good points, though. How Arizona has won 8 of their last 10, and how they have a lot of athletic play makers on both sides of the ball. Those are aspects of this one that just can't be ignored...

What you also can't ignore, is the fact the the Patriots are at home, and have one of the best records in the league of not only winning at home, but covering the spread. So much so that a Pittsburgh Steeler fan wrote a book about it, saying the Pats unbelievable home mark can only be a result of Belichick's insistence on cheating in a SpyGate like fashion. Hey, even if he's right (impossible, he's from Shattsburgh), that doesn't mean we as bettors can't use that information to our advantage. Yes, 13.5 is a lot of points. But between the Pats being the better team, the West to East @ 1 pm factor, and my belief that most teams perform at a higher than expected level at their home opener. I feel comfortable installing the Patriots as one of my more confident picks of the week...

Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles

Sticking with the theme of taking teams that proved their perceived worth in week 1, I'm leaping at the chance to take the Ravens laying any points. I am a bit concerned that with both Maclin and Desean feeling the ills of week 1 injuries that the Eagles will decide to run more. Thus making them more effective. But I'll take my chances with the Ravens. They proved in week 1 that they are indeed one of the NFL's best, so there's no reason not to ride them against a team that almost lost in week 1 to Brandon Weeden and the Browns...

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) @ New York Giants

New York Jets (+5.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Are the Jets for real? This week in Pittsburgh should definitely give us a good indication. And while I'd normally lay those points and take the Steelers, the fact that NY's strength (it's DBs) lines right up with Pittsburgh's new strength (it's WRs) gives me pause to take them over a team like New York with a spread any bigger than 3. Granted, I could also see James Harrison going all 'Mo Lewis V Drew Bledsoe' on Mark Sanchez, paving not only the way for a big Pittsburgh win, but likely a full blown NY QB controversy. But I'll take the chance that Sanchez stays in tact, and the Jets find a way to keep this one close...

As for their Meadowland brethren, I'll continue to stick to my pre season guns. I think the Giants will start slow, and so far they have. I also think the Bucs will continue to be undervalued, just as they were last week when they won outright as an underdog against the much heralded Carolina Panthers. I'm by no means some closet Tampa fan, but I'm a bigger fan than the betting public. The value is there, at least for now. And I say take it...

Washington Redskins (-3) @ St. Louis Rams

Robert Griffin may fancy himself a Superman, but I'm of the belief that Batman is a better comparison. Mostly because Batman always had Alfred by his side, and, well so does Bobby G. Yup, I'm riding this Alfred Morris wave until it sends me crashing into the rough shore that is the Mike Shannahan running back brigade. I know Peter Garcons is a little banged up this week, too. Which should make things more difficult for the rookie QB on the road. But I'm riding this horse until it bucks me. I owe them that much after they made me look so good with last week. OK, I don't owe them shit. I just think they're gonna win. That's right. Again...

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) @ Carolina Panthers

As for RGII, AKA Cam Newton. I don't like his squads chances any more this week than last. Much like the Packers last night, the Saints should bounce back, with the Panthers conveniently serving as their trampoline. Both teams are likely much better than they showed in week 1, but with the Saints still being the better team, I give them the better shot at being the first of these NFC South foes to make it into the win column. Even on the road...

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) vs Detroit Lions

You tend to tread on shaky ground when you use this kind of logic, but I'm gonna go ahead and use it anyway. San Francisco won last week @ Green Bay, and the Lions needed every second, and a few good breaks, to win @ home last week against St. Louis. I do that math, and I really like the 49ers chances of knocking off their second NFC North opponent in as many weeks. I was worried before the season that San Fran would take a giant step back, but week 1's performance showed me that likely isn't the case. And in front of a home crowd that hasn't seen them since a debilitating defeat in the NFC Title game, the Niners should once again prove that even with Alex Smith at QB, they're one of the NFL's elite clubs...

As for the rest of the slate, I like the Bills, Bengals and Colts to bounce back after week 1 losses with home meetings against less than stellar foes, and I ended up taking the Seahawks and the points. Mostly because I always take the Seahawks and the points when they're at home. Not sure why it works, but it does. And if it doesn't work this time, it'll work next time. That's why I stick with it. It's a golden goose, of sorts. And apparently even Pete Carroll hasn't been able to kill it...

Buffalo Bills (-3) vs Kansas City Chiefs

Cincinnati Bengals (-7) vs Cleveland Browns

Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) vs Minnesota Vikings

Oakland Raiders (-2.5) @ Miami Dolphins

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) vs Houston Texans

Seattle Seahawks (+3) vs Dallas Cowboys

San Diego Chargers (-6) vs Tennessee Titans

Monday Night

Denver Broncos (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons

Like the Ravens and Patriots before them, I'm sticking with the Broncos for at least one more week. The falcons were impressive in week 1, too. Don't get me wrong. But Peyton's return to the playing "shorter" week courtesy of Sunday Night Football...

Oh and I'll take the UNDER for whatever time frame you set before the phrase "possible Super Bowl match up" comes up on the National telecast. Yeah, week 2. That's a good time to start making Super Bowl predictions. Because those usually work out so well...

Last Week: 11-6-1 (.639)

The cleavage says it all. This week, the Gators will get busted. And since last week I did so well posting a picture of a girl representing a team that I was picking against (Notre Dame). I'm doing it again. Besides, I like the odds that Methy McMethBoobs up there (look at those cracked out eyes) will keep enough of the Florida players up past curfew. Something that should definitely end up working to my advantage...

NCAA Top 25 Picks
(1) Alabama (-21) @ Arkansas

(2) USC (-8) @ (21) Stanford

Wake Forest (+28) @ (3) Florida St.

(10) Michigan St. (-6) vs (20) Notre Dame

(12) Ohio St. (-17) vs California

(13) Virginia Tech (-10) @ Pittsburgh

Mississippi (+10) vs (14) Texas

(23) Tennessee (-3) vs (18) Florida

(19) Louisville (-3) vs North Carolina

Utah (+4) @ (25) BYU

Last Week: 7-5-0 (.583)

Before I go, congrats to my good friends Derek Michel and Kristina Powers, who will be tying the knot later on this afternoon. I wish you both nothing but the best, and look forward to being a part of your special day. And by "being part of your special day", I mostly mean I hope I don't have too many beverages and start hurling questionable humor at your unsuspecting relatives. Congrats!

As for the rest of you, I'll catch you next week. And Good luck...

Teddy Williams...



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