Friday, September 21, 2012

NFL Week 3 Picks: Smokin' Jay & The Nigerian Nightmare

So, were you victimized last night by someone in your fantasy league that started Andre Brown or Ramses Barden? No? Well, neither was I. And while I may have volunteered that "no" for the vast majority, I'm sure there are still plenty of you out there that are damming your bad luck and could use a boost to you're suddenly bleak weekend outlook. Well, I'm here to abide. I may have told you the wrong Giants running back to draft for your fantasy squad (damn you, David Wilson), but there's nothing Tom Coughlin can do to prevent me from picking winners. At least not yet. So let's take advantage of that together, and add a 3rd straight winning weekend to what's already been an extremely profitable campaign...


Week 3 Picks

San Francisco (-7) @ Minnesota Vikings

It's weird. We're 3 weeks in, and there's only really one team that's solidified itself as a favorite to reach this year's Super Bowl. That team, is the San Francisco 49ers. I'll admit I didn't entirely see this coming, but their well balanced offensive attack and league leading defense put them more than a little bit ahead of their nearest competitor. That doesn't mean they cant lose on "any given Sunday", but it does mean that I'll be taking them to win and cover on every given Sunday until they show me that it's a bad investment. On the road laying more than a touchdown? Not the best scenario. But one that I'm willing to chance based on the 49ers impressive start... 

New Orleans Saints (-9) vs Kansas City Chiefs

An 0-2 team giving 9 points? Looks like a sucker bet to me. The question becomes, which side is the sucker going to bet? You would think the Saints, because even with the NFL's last ranked defense through 2 weeks, they're known as an explosive team and they're playing what's viewed as a hapless opponent. But I think it's KC. Why? Because they're God awful. And while giving points to an 0-2 team may seem like pure betting madness, betting on one that's lost by an average of 17 through their first 2 weeks doesn't exactly come off as sane...

This should be a shoot out, with each defense yielding more than 37 points per game, but I'm betting New Orleans will come out fast enough to keep the game in their control. Get up 14-0, and all of a sudden your defense won't look nearly as bad. That's what the Saints will do. And while I'm not convinced a win here will right their ship, I am convinced that the only sucker bets  being placed on this one will be placed by the guys in the vintage Christian Okoye jerseys. "The Nigerian Nightmare". Such a great freakin' nickname. That might be the worst sports card I've ever seen, but great freakin' nickname...

Arizona Cardinals (+4) vs Philadelphia Eagles

They may have marched into Gillette and beaten the Patriots, but Vegas still isn't giving the Arizona Cardinals any respect. Hell, then I'll give it to them. Their offense is still shady as all Hell, with no distinguishable running OR passing game. But their defense is as athletic as they come. Something I don't think bodes well for a team like Philly, whose QB still thinks he can outrun all 11 guys that are trying to chase him. But match ups aside, there are 3 main reasons why I'm a big fan of this pick. Arizona's hot (won 9 of their last 11). They're getting points. And they're at home. I don't know about you, but I'm taking that combination every day of the week. Maybe even twice on Sunday...

St. Louis Rams (+7.5) @ Chicago Bears

With "Smokin' Jay Cutler" rapidly becoming my favorite "meme", and Jeff Fischer always having been one of my favorite coaches, this pick more or less made itself. Fine, it's really more that I think the Rams are underrated and the Bears are overrated, but any justification that can involve a cig being hilariously dangled from a massive Ted's mouth is good enough for me. And besides, I'm sure "Smokin' Jay" will play as if he just "smoked a J" for at least a good enough chunk of this game for the Rams to sneak in a backdoor cover... 

Baltimore Ravens (-3) vs New England Patriots

Ah, yes. This is where I pick against the Patriots and get labeled a reactionary Judas. But what can I say? I think they're going to lose this game. And oddly enough, by more than 3 points. It's not that I think they suddenly suck because Aaron Hernandez went down and they lost at home to the Cardinals, but those two things have made it a much more difficult prospect to beat a team like the Ravens on their own turf. Hernandez figured to be a larger part of this year's offense, if not it's most pivotal player, and while his loss can be at least mostly compensated for, his absence from the field may just remove the Patriots from that very top tier of NFL teams. And even if it doesn't, and the Patriots don't miss a stride, this is still the Ravens. Not only are they good, but they've given New England plenty of problems in the past. They'll do it again, and next week I'll be telling not to worry just because the Patriots are 1-2...

Notes on the rest of the slate: I expect a bounce back win for Peyton and the Broncos, I like Chargers holding serve against an Atlanta team that's just not as good as their results, and I'm rolling with Tampa thanks to some helpful advice from Nazi Bill Simmons. Yeah, that's right. Nazi Bill Simmons. Never have 2 terrible nouns been put next to each other and ended up sounding so right. I also like the Browns getting their first win over a Buffalo team that's dropped 8 straight on the road. A pick I hear Kim Jong Simmons actually made his "Nuclear Lock of the Week"...

Cleveland Browns (+3) vs Buffalo Bills

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) @ Dallas Cowboys

Tennessee Titans (+3.5) vs Detroit Lions

Indianapolis Colts (-3) vs Jacksonville Jaguars

New York Jets (-2.5) @ Miami Dolphins

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) @ Washington Redskins

San Diego Chargers (-3) vs Atlanta Falcons

Denver Broncos (+2) vs Houston Texans

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) @ Oakland Raiders

Monday Night

Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) vs Green Bay Packers

After last week's lecture, and not to mention the ultimate result, you better believe I'm again taking advantage of the Seahawks getting points at home. Again, I don't pretend to understand why they're able to defy the odds at home, but I don't care. Petey C and the boys cover, and usually win, when they're spotted points at home. This Monday Night should be no different...

Last Week: 10-7-1

Overall: 20-14-2 (.586)

If it ain't broke, don't fix it. And when it's broke, well then go back to putting the picture of those hot LSU coeds at the top of your college picks. And throw in a picture of John Goodman wearing an LSU t-shirt just for good measure...

NCAA Top 25 Picks
(2) LSU (-20.5) @ Auburn

(3) Oregon (-22.5) vs (22) Arizona

(4) Florida St. (-14) vs (10) Clemson

(5) Georgia (-16) vs Vanderbilt

(15) Kansas St. (+14) @ (6) Oklahoma

(7) South Carolina (-10) vs Missouri

(8) West Virginia (-26.5) vs Maryland

(18) Michigan (+6) @ (11) Notre Dame

(13) USC (-16) vs California

(17) TCU (-17.5) vs Virginia

Oregon St. (+9.5) @ (19) UCLA

Last Week: 4-6-0

Overall: 11-11-0 (.500)

Good luck this weekend, friends. And I'll catch you on Wednesday...

Teddy Williams...



Anonymous said...

Judas..Pats don't lose simply because when is the last time they lost two straight. Not to mention Flacco sucks, and will probably end up throwin 3 picks.

Brett Ferruccio said...

Last time they lost 2 in a row? 10/30/11 and 11/6/11. So in other words, less than a year PinkHat bastard.

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