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Friday, September 07, 2012

NFL Week 1 Picks: There's No Crying in Football!


Boy am I glad that I apologized in advance for whatever fantasy football agony I may cause you this season by listening to my advice. Otherwise, I'd have to use the first portion of this post to explain not only how the late round RB I suggested you snipe ended up in the doghouse after just his second career carry, but also how that same RB was then spotted literally crying on the sidelines after being benched...

Yeah, all of those things happened to Giants' running back, David Wilson, on Wednesday night, and I'm already feeling that my fantasy football woes might be destined to live on for another year. Feel free to call me paranoid, if you must, but when the guy you draft ends up crying on the sideline, I tend to look at that as a sign that at the very least, things aren't going to run as smoothly as I would have hoped...

Lucky for you, I've got another area of expertise that has yeah yet to tarnished by the Gods of sport, or whomever it is that's seen it as their duty to consistently throw a major wrench into my money making venture of choice. That area, is picking games. So take advantage while you can, friends. Because it's only a matter of time before whatever force is at play here discovers my last remaining gold mine goes to work. I'm thinking it's the work of the ghost of Lance Armstrong, but seeing as he's not dead yet, I'm also looking into other possibilities...

Either way, it's time to get to work. Football, my friends. It's finally here. Now let's make that money. Ya know, before the un-dead zombie ghost of a disgraced cyclist decides to destroy our world...

Week 1 Picks

New England Patriots (-5.5) @ Tennessee Titans

Expectations are high again in New England, and for good reason. They're higher than normal in Tennessee, too. Thanks to the highly anticipated arrival of QB Jake Locker and the return to "health" of RB Chris Johnson and a good chunk of their defense. There are concerns that the New England O-Line might not be a good as it was in the past, potentially taking a toll on their always lethal passing attack, but that's something I'll have to see in a real game situation before I pick them not to cover less than a touchdown spread on the road...


Washington Redskins (+7) @ New Orleans Saints

Big things tend to happen on opening weekends in New Orleans, but that doesn't mean they necessarily need to happen for the Saints. Yup, I'm hitching my star to RG3, at least for this one. Between the losses on defense, and the sanctions thrown down against their coaching staff, the Saints won't be the world beaters they've been in years past. That should allow Washington to keep it close, even if Mike Shannahan suffers from personality disorder when it comes to deciding on any given day who he actually wants to run the bean. He's got the right guy passing it, though, and that should be enough for the new look Skins to hang...

Buffalo Bills (+2.5) @ New York Jets

Make no mistake. I am not picking the Bills because of all the hype surrounding their new look defense and I am not picking against the Jets because of some sort of inherent New England hatred. Nope. I'm picking against the Jets because they can't score, and I'm picking the Bills because they're the team that the Jets happen to be playing. And they're getting points. Bonus...

Green Bay Packers (-5) vs San Francisco 49ers

One thing the "experts" and I can agree on this year is that the 49ers are destined to take at step or two backward after last year's near Super Bowl campaign. Green Bay, on the other hand, figures to be on a mission after fumbling away their chance at a Super Bowl birth at home. I'm not insinuating that San Fran will be some sort of pushover, but I don't like the chances of their offense going score for score with Aaron Rodgers. At least not in September @ Lambeau Field...


Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5) @ Cleveland Browns

Art Modell may be dead, but that doesn't mean the dark clouds have cleared from above one of the NFL's most miserable franchises. Hmm. Or maybe it has. That could be a story this year. Art Modell dies, and all of a sudden the Browns become relevant again. Right? Yeah, probably not. But either way, I'm taking the Eagles to roll, and I'll be picking against the Browns until I see some of this dead owner voodoo magic start to take place. Should be around the same time you see the "SMOKE WEEDEDN EVERYDAY" memes starting to pop up...


Denver Broncos (-1.5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers

I don't know about you, but I'm a believer in Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. A big time believer. Like, a "by the end of the year it'll be just like the Pats/Colts battles of old" type believer. Pittsburgh will probably figure in to those battles too, as they usually do. But just as I'd probably do in December in Denver should these two eventually meet, I'll take the Broncos and lay the points. They already had a very good defense, and now they've got at least 80% of an elite QB to run their offense. That should make them better than they were last year, which in my book puts them right at the top of the AFC...

Houston Texans (-11) vs Miami Dolphins

If you watched Hard Knocks, then this pick shouldn't need any explanation. Even still, you're probably convinced that the Dolphins are garb, and don't figure to make it out of the AFC East cellar unless the Jets really do give Tebow the reigns. Still, 12 is a lot of points to lay. I just can't in good conscience take Miami only to watch the Texans roll them up to the tune of 28-0. Houston will probably suffer a myriad of key injuries that will again derail their season, but as long as if doesn't happen this week, they should be fine...


As for the rest of this week's slate, here's my take. I like the games above more than I like the games below, but we both know that's not gonna stop you from reading into each set of picks as the same set of advice. And yes, I'm one of those "crazy bastards" that doesn't think that just because Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler are back together that all of a sudden the Bears are going to become world beaters. Case in point...

Indianapolis Colts (+10) @ Chicago Bears

Detroit Lions (-7) vs St. Louis Rams

Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs

Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Arizona Cardinals (+3) vs Seattle Seahawks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) vs Carolina Panthers


Monday Night

Baltimore Ravens (-6) vs Cincinnati Bengals

Oakland Raiders (-1) vs San Diego Chargers

Tough games to pick for Monday night, and not particularly for any reason that would make a coach proud. San Diego and Oakland have been woefully inconsistent, and after a breakthrough year last year, a sputtering pre season has left many wondering if the Bengals are due for a step back rather than a leap forward. That's why I'm just rolling with the home teams. Baltimore is still a true contender, and while the divisional familiarity could easily keep that one closer than the 6 points, I'll take the title minded Ravens in enough scenarios to make laying the number a sound selection...


On to the college ranks, and for those that may be new here, allow me to divulge my strategy. OR maybe not so much my strategy, but my preferred method of delivery. I put just as much thought into thee picks as I do with the NFL, except in lieu of any sort of analysis, I simply provide the picks accompanied by at least one scantily clad NCAA themed vixen. My sexy record? Feel free to scroll to the bottom. It speaks for it's sexy self. The definition of win-win if I've ever seen one. Which I haven't, because the 2nd win almost always turns out to be a scam...

This week, the pin up nod goes to the Fightin Irish of Notre Dame, even though I don't like their chances to cover this week playing at home against Purdue. Yeah, no real method there. But I do love me some Jaime Edmondson themed football picks. You may remember her from such well liked NFL underboobs as the ones pictured below...



Oh, and yes. Syracuse is going to get lit up by USC. And no, I probably won't be watching it unless I get a text late in the 2nd half saying "wtf? are you watchin this?!" At which point I will likely turn the TV on only to watch them grasp defeat from the jaws of victory. Kind of like what happened this week...

NCAA Top 25 Picks
(2) USC (-26) vs Syracuse

(3) LSU (-23.5) vs Washington

Fresno St. (+34.5) @ (4) Oregon

Missouri (+3.5) vs (7) Georgia

(13) Wisconsin (-8) @ Oregon St.

UCLA (+5) vs (16) Nebraska

(18) Oklahoma St. (-10) @ Arizona

(19) Michigan (-21) vs Air Force

Miami (+7) @ (21) Kansas St.

Purdue (+14.5) @ (22) Notre Dame

Texas A&M (-1.5) vs (24) Florida

(25) Stanford (-15) vs Duke


Last Year: 99-53-3 (.649)

ALL TIME: 454-284-19 (.613)


Good luck to you this week, friends. And remember. Don't cry if you lose. Especially if you're on TV. Which you won't be. So just don't cry. That way we can all still remain friends. And I'd like that. I'd like that a lot...


Teddy Williams...
100...

#$>

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