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Friday, February 03, 2012

Super Bowl XLVI: The Polish Patriots & The Case of the TYREEVENGE


Four years ago, before making my prediction for Super Bowl XLII, I wrote down 2 things to take into consideration when picking the winner. Hell, I then went on to publish those things in this very same web space. Here they were:

1) The Patriots win big games

2) The Patriots win big games, by small margins



Then, I proceeded to pick the Patriots to win and cover, as 12.5 point favorites. So much for listening to my own advice. Would have still had the winner wrong, but at least I would have made some money. Oh well, let's see if I've learned anything over the past 4 years, and if I've learned to actually start listening to my own advice. My guess is no...

IT's the Super Bowl, friends. And after two long weeks, and 4 long years, it's finally here. Now let's see if we can't make some money, and the Patriots can't score themselves some TYREEVENGE...

Should be a good one. Let's go...


Usually, I give you my pick against the spread right off the top, but in proper journalistic form, I'm gonna wait to give you that until I listen to what I have to say...

Going into Championship Weekend, I felt if there were a rematch of the 2008 Super Bowl, the Giants would have the edge. Hell, I thought that when I originally predicted this would be the Super Bowl match up before the start of the playoffs. They have the superior defense, a comparable but arguably more "explosive" offense, and they're the hottest team in the game. Not to mention they beat the Patriots at Gillette earlier this year, and I'm always a big fan of team's winning on a neutral field after they've already beaten someone in their own joint. So, that means I must be taking the Giants, right? IF I'm going to be listening to my own advice? Eh, not so much...

See, a little bit of this layoff got to me. I mean come on, it was inevitable. And the more I got to thinking about this one, the more I began to think that while all the things I thought about the Giants were still true, I hadn't been giving the Patriots enough credit. I mean, they may not have had to win tough road playoff games like the Giants have, but their still a very worthy team that has it's own strengths that they've helped ride to Indy. Ya know, like a certain QB and coach that have already combined for 3 Super Bowls and the most dynamic tight end combination the NFL has probably ever seen. Oh, and then there's that future Hall of Famer in the middle of the only defense in history that I can remember that's been simultaneously under and overrated for the entire season. Hey, the Pats have a lot going for them, too, or they probably wouldn't be here. The question for me is whether or not their seemingly less physical style of ball will allow them to win in what will undoubtedly be the toughest game they've had all season. A statement that's not necessarily true if your the New York Giants. I'm sorry, but beating Green Bay and San Fran in their own joints is probably a taller order than beating the Patriots, a team you've already beaten on the road this season, at a neutral site...

Say, you ever hear the one about the
man of the Polish persuasion?
So, what was the end result? Did I let all of the warm memories of Patriot Super Bowls' past and all the talk of the Patriots acting relaxed and professional during the two week layoff sway my thinking? Or am I sticking with the Giants, whom I've had pegged as 2012 Super Bowl champs for nearly 2 months now? Well, needless to say I'll be picking splinters out of my ass for weeks after this one, because I'll be riding the fence. I've got the Giants +3, but I've got the Patriots winning the game. Some TYREEVENGE served up Polish style, with Gronkowski as the MVP, and Gostkowski with the winning kick. And I'm not sure if either of them are actually Polish, but that's really not the point. Either way, as long as they don't decide to travel to the game together in their submarine with the screen door, then this prediction should be good as gold. Or at least as good as the value of gold on the market that could fetch you a healthy white baby, and/or "a negro with his heart born on the out-side..."


Final score Patriots 31 Giants 30. After a late Eli Manning touchdown pass puts the Giants up 2, Brady works his magic one more time, aided greatly by some freak play by the now one-legged Rob Gronkowski (I presuming his ankle will bother him so much that he will just cut it off himself during that extended halftime. That's the real reason Belichick gave them that extra 31 minutes at practice the other day. To prepare for that). He leads the Patriots down the field, moves them right into Steve Gostkowski's wheelhouse, and the rest will be history. As if Adam Vinatieri drew it up himself. And from the way I just described it, probably the most watched and likely most talked about piece of football history since the inception of the game. Yeah, it could be that good. I expect big plays on both sides of the ball, and I expect the lead to change sides multiple times before the night is through. Basically, I think both offenses will be effective, and both defenses will come up with enough big plays to keep momentum in the balance until the very end. It should be as good as advertised and close as the point spread predicts. Just a great football game and dare I say, one that will almost instantly turn into an "instant classic". I know I'd buy a ticket...


In the end, while it may not seem like it, I followed all of my rules. I picked the Pats to win, I picked them to win in a close game, and I took the team that I think will probably win this one more often than not as the 3 point underdog. All in all, I'm walking away from this pregame experience feeling pretty damn good. Which, in reality, should scare the living Hell out of me, and anyone that agrees with me. Then again, this could be my year. I mean, I did predict this freakin' match up way back in 2011... 

With that out of the way, let's pick some props. Now, in years past I've given you some rather outrageous prop bets to try out during the Super Bowl. This year? Not so much. You wanna see the odds that Madonna is going to wear fishnet stalkings? Go right ahead. It's just that I know real people hardly ever bet on these things, so I'm not even going to bother. Even on the 4 year anniversary of me winning $75 betting that Tom Petty would end his halftime set with "Running Down A Dream". Quirky prop best are fun, but more often than not their just a big waste of a small amount of money. If you want, parlay like 5 or 6 of them together, but if you're looking for a logical way to go about picking those things, you're already two steps behind in a one footed race. Is that a saying? Well it should be / is now...

Here are some legit MVP props, though. Which is to say there's a good bang for your limited buck. Ya, ya Brady or Manning will probably win, but here are some guys that will could actually help you see some legit return on your investment... 

MVP

Rob Gronkowski 12 to 1

He's a cult hero, and with an injury that every expert has said he "Can't play 100% on", it would only be appropriate that he have a monster game and only add to his rapidly growing legend.

Hakeem Nicks 12 to 1

Dexter...who?
He's capable of making that "WTF" catch that could define the Super Bowl for years to come. Even if Cruz were to get more yards, Nicks would be my bet to make "that" play and steal away the MVP.

Aaron Hernandez 16 to 1

Should Gronk be ailing, Hernandez could step up. That could lead to a huge game (100+ yds 1+ TDs) and likewise the MVP trophy.

Antrel Rolle 75 to 1

I expect Brady to target Rolle in the passing game, which means he'll have plenty opportunities to make a name for himself, and make a few plays that could determine the game's outcome. Think "Larry Brown" and "Dexter Jackson". Who? Exactly, that's why at 75 to 1 he's a steal.

Jerod Mayo 100 to 1

How would Jerod Mayo get the MVP? How about a pick 6 or a strip sack TD that gives the Patriots the lead in the 4th quarter? It's unlikely, and it's not what I predicted, but at 100 to 1 I'm thinking it's worth the investment.

Oh say can you see....your toes anymore?
There ya have it. Again, if you want to bet on how long it's going to take Kelly "Oh my God what did I eat because I suddenly look like that Kardashian dude-sister" Clarkson, there are places that will take your action, it's just not something I'm down for discussing. At least not this year. Maybe next year I'll be more in the mood to speculate about the color of the Gatorade that will be dumped on the winning coach's head, but as of right now, I'm taking a pass. Although we all really know the smart money is one that Yellow one. Then again, who knows what Belichick is puttin' in their drinks. I wouldn't be half surprised to see them tip that thing over and a midget with a hidden camera comes tumblin' out. What? IT is what it is, friends. And hopefully what this is, is the prelude to a great Super Bowl...

Enjoy the game, friends, and I'll catch you on the flipman...


Teddy Williams...
100...

#$> 

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

100 to 1 on Mayo....Yes, please. Considering ill be rocking my Red Mayo jersey for this game....I'm predicting Co MVP...Hernadez and Ochocino. You heard it right fool! Don't even know if Ocho is playing but if he does you can Meachem in the endzone. Duuuuuuuuuuuke!

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