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Thursday, January 05, 2012

Wild Card Picks: The Lovely Ladies of Wild Card Weekend...


Well friends, much like the first snow to hit the Northeast, the playoffs are upon us. Time for legends to be made, frauds exposed and nails bitten down to the nub. Pretty much, it's the best of the best duking it out for the ring that will go on to define their career, and no matter what happens, we're sure to be entertained. It's really just a beautiful thing. A sweet science, if you will. Which is a lot better than that ESPN "Sport Science" segment, where they reveal the mystery of how Tim Tebow throws with his left hand and how it is a basketball gets it's bounce. And people wonder why I no longer watch SportsCenter...

There's another science at play this week too, though, and that's the science of handicapping these games and attempting to turn a profit. Usually a tough proposition, but thanks to a statistical anomaly, I'm thinking that this year's picks should be easier than in season's past. What is that anomaly, you ask? Well, as I combed through the stats and trends, courtesy of sites like Covers.com, I realized one very important fact: In a year where two of the worst statistical defenses in the HISTORY of the NFL (GB, NE), are the two #1 seeds, past trends and tactics need not apply. So, yes. I've read through all the numbers, combed through all the past results, and decided that this year, that information is absolutely useless. That doesn't mean I don't have a system in place to make my picks, it just means that I'll be doing it more based on what's happened this year as opposed to what may have happened in playoffs past. See? There's a method to my madness, now all we have to do is figure out if that method bares fruit...

So let's get to figurin'...

Oh and this week's theme is the sexy girls of the Widlcard Weekend, so allow that to serve as added incentive if you weren't already impressed with my new and improved method and were actually thinking about jumping ship before the page break...


Wild Card Picks


Cincinnati Bengals (+4) @ Houston Texans

Along with the Patriots, The Bengals are probably the team with which I've had the least success betting on this season. Oh well, I'm still taking them with the points. Why? Because they have the more explosive offense, and the healthier squad. Sure, they may be on the road playing against one of the league's stingiest defenses AND they might be the most inexperienced teams in the tournament, but they have the better offense, and the more explosive weapons in AJ Green and Jerome Simpson. Yeah, I know Andre Johnson and Arian Foster are the two most talented players on the field, but with TJ Yates (or possibly Jake Delhomme???) at the helm, I have more confidence in the Cincy being able to slow them down than I do the other way around. If Houston is able to control the flow of the game via their ground attack, it could be a long day for Marvin Lewis and his new look Cats, but that's a chance I'm willing to take, aided of course by the 3 points...

That's another thing. A 3 point spread means the handicappers more or less called this thing a wash, and gave the customary 3 points to the home team. With that being the case, I'll definitely side with what I think is the more potent offense, which in this guy's opinion, belongs to the striped tigers from the Illest of Natty's...

There's a Bush joke to be made here, somewhere...

New Orleans Saints (-10.5) vs Detroit Lions

All week I was poised to take the Lions and lay the nearly 11 points, but then my new school theory got the best of me. Not to mention I was inspired when I saw some of the attire that the Saints' fans would be wearing to the game...

Who dat there gonna wear no bra??
In all seriousness, though, as much as it's tempting to take those points and run, the Saints are just too hot for me to turn my back. That, and the Lions biggest asset, their defensive line, should more or less be neutralized by arguably the best offensive line in the league in front of Drew Brees. That's not to say they won't get any pressure on the All World QB, but certainly not enough to disrupt his rhythm and put him on his heels...

I like the Saints to get up early, force Stafford into a few throws he'd rather not make, and reap the benefits. And let's not forget, this is the same match up that saw the Saints win 31-17 back on December 5th, so you've got that to reassure you, if you're still on the fence. Although I expect this one to be a slightly higher scoring affair...


New York Giants (-3) vs Atlanta Falcons

I'm also siding with the home favored Giants, and not just because I've already predicted a Giants/Patriots Super Bowl rematch. Well, OK, that's part of the reason, but the real reason is that these are more or less two teams headed in opposite directions. Not that the Falcons are sputtering, but more so that the Giants are rolling, and will have the advantage of the cold weather and the home field at their disposal. And again, this being the year where it's all about offense, the Giants have the better offense, too, with Eli Manning probably playing the best ball of his career...

There's always the Tom Coughlin element to factor in. Ya know, because it's so funny when he gets upset and this would be a great time for him to get upset. I just think it's more likely he'll be upset over individual plays than he will be about a major error costing his team the game and thus ending their season...

Angry Tom Coughlin. How he hasn't made a fortune on those bitter beer face commercials I'll never know...


Denver Broncos (+8.5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Tebow and the points. It's been a great strategy so far, and I'm stickin' with it. OK, mostly it's because the Steelers are banged up beyond belief (Mendenhall, Roethlisberger?), but I still think it's a good play. It will all come down to how well the Denver defense plays. I know I've been preaching offense, offense, offense, but this may be the one match up where one team's defense (DEN) should really be able to dictate the outcome. At least when it comes to covering the spread. Expect a low scoring affair, and Tebow with the ball at the end with a chance to win or tie...which would mean they would be down by a maximum of 8. So yeah, take the points, and start prayin'...

Oh and shouldn't that chick have a crucifix tramp stamp? What? No good? I saw a chick the a star of David tramp stamp once. Had to break it to her she wouldn't be able to be buried in a Jewish cemetery. She didn't seem to mind / she was too busy finger combing vomit out of her hair around the time I told her. Ahhh college memories...


Last Week: 9-7-0

Overall: 164-113-6 (.590)


There you have it, friends. All the Wild Card picks that are fit to print, and a few lovely ladies that are...well...ready to go? They sure are, and I hope you are, too...


Oh, and if you're looking for advice on the LSU/Alabama National Championship game, I would just advise betting against yours truly. I've got LSU (+1). Not sure why they're being spotted a point, after having beaten Alabama in their only meeting and playing the game in their home state, but Lord knows I'm gonna take it. So yeah, bet the house on the Tide and you should be good to go. I'm askin' ya, though. How are you gonna lose when you have fans like that in the stands? I don't think it's possible, but guess we'll have to wait and let time tell us if I'm right, wrong, or simply being misled by the brain below my belt...

Good luck, kids, and have a great weekend!


Teddy Williams...
100...

#$>

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