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Thursday, December 29, 2011

Week 17 Picks: The End is Near...


Well, my friends, the year twenty-twelve is nearly upon us. And if we're to believe some of the "experts", there's a decent chance that this next year could be the last for the human race and the planet in which we inhabit. Now, I'm no Mayan calendar reader, so I don't know one way or another, but I do know this. Even if the world does end some time in December of 2012, I'd still bet on Baylor & Washington to go OVER in the "X-Box End of the World Bowl". Like, even if the world was opening up as they played, a la the latest Dark Knight Rising trailer, I'd still like like those teams chances of at least hangin' 50 on each other. I mean, seriously. Was it me, or was that game being controlled by an ADD stricken and Red Bull fueled 12 year old with a video game controller? Whatever, I'm sure you won't hear fans complaining about it like you did that 9-6 OT thriller in November between Alabama & LSU. Freakin' fans. They think they can have their cake and eat it, too. And you know what? It's because more often than not, they actually can...

And while we're on the subject of delicious cake, let's try to win you some by figuring out the safest way to wade through this mercurial final week of the NFL regular season. The world may be ending, but you're still gonna need that gambling money to pay for all the end of the world drugs, sex and booze. Hey, what can I tell ya? The rapture isn't gonna pay for itself...


Week 17 Picks


New York Giants (-3) vs Dallas Cowboys

In a week where it's difficult to predict who will be playin' for what and who will have the proper motivation, this game's a no brainer. Win, and you're in. What might be tougher to gauge, is whether or not either of these teams actually decides to play like they know what's on the line. My bet is that the Giants will. Both of these teams are incredibly inconsistent, but I think between home field advantage and some veteran experience, the G-Men clearly have the edge. That, and this Tony Romo brand of Cowboys' don't exactly have a track record of winning big games, and I don't think that's a trend that's likely to change in the Big Apple...or in Jersey. Wherever the Hell they're gonna play this thing...


Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) vs Baltimore Ravens

Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Houston Texans

Important rule of thumb to remember: Just because a team "needs" to win, doesn't mean they're going to. IF that were the case, they would have already won enough games to ensure themselves a playoff spot, right? Right...

That being said, I like both of the teams in "must win" situations this week to take down the teams that are currently ahead of them in their respective divisions. Could the Ravens really NOT win the AFC North in a year where they swept the Steelers? That's what I'm thinkin'. I also wouldn't bet on them to make any noise in this year's playoffs, but that's a different write up for a different day...


San Francisco 49ers (-10-5) @ St. Louis Rams

Carolina Panthers (+9.5) @ New Orleans Saints

On the flip side of that coin, we have the cause and effect type games that can often screw people in my situation, who are trying to predict these things before the day even starts. For instance, if San Fran wins, New Orleans can't improve their seeding. IT can't get any worse, either. They'll be locked in to #3. And that's what I'm banking on happening. San Fran will clobber St. Louis at 1, and New Orleans will take their foot off the gas enough for Cam and the Carolinians to cover that nearly double digit spread. Should the Niners somehow lose, though, I'd go ahead and throw nearly your entire bankroll on the Saints. I mean, did you see Drew Brees last week? Of course you did. I certainly don't like the Rams chances of putting the Saints in that enviable position, but it's important to know that if they do, you'll want to alter your bets...

*note: Both of these games are actually at 1 o'clock. Oops/meh. I'm still shadily rolling with Cam and the Carolinians...


New England Patriots (-11) vs Buffalo Bills

Buried the Patriots game a bit, this week, but that's mostly because when I started typing, I had no idea on which side I was going to pick in this game. Now, I've got it, but allow me to warn you that you;re probably not going to like my reasoning. Mostly, I'm picking the Patriots because of A) all the shady injury news that's surrounded Tom Brady and his non throwing shoulder, this week AND B) the fact that his injury has helped the betting line move from where it opened at 13.5 to the 11 where it currently sits. You just know Belichick has his team thinking revenge after the Bills beat the Pats in week 3, and despite the fact that the Pats may not have a ton to "play for" (could still be in for the #1 overall seed), I still view this as a game where they likely come out and just step on the Bills' throats. A similar attitude to the Denver game. Ya know, the only time since Thanksgiving that the Patriots have actually covered the spread? Yeah, I'm banking that this is that type of game, and whether or not it ends with Brian Hoyer and/or Ryan Mallett tossing it around Gillette Stadium shouldn't even factor in...


Speaking of not factoring in, here are the rest of this week's picks. On and notice you  won't find any Bowl picks, this year. I figured 5 years of me picking those things at about 40% has been more than enough. Not sure what happens in that month between that causes me to go from picking games against the spread at a 65% clip to where I can't pick even just winners at better than 50%, but at this point the reason doesn't even matter. It happens, not sure why, and I've decided we'll all be better off if I just keep those picks to myself. I do really like Oklahoma St. (-3.5) against Stanford, though. You know, for what it's worth..



Miami Dolphins (-2.5) vs New York Jets

Chicago Bears (+1) @ Minnesota Vikings

Washington Redskins (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles

Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Atlanta Falcons (-12) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos

Oakland Raiders (-3) vs San Diego Chargers

Seattle Seahawks (+3) @ Arizona Cardinals



Last Week: 12-6-0

Overall: 155-106-6 (.592)


Wrapping things up, I'll leave you with these two final notes:


1) I'm a fan of the Red Sox trade for Oakland RP and 2 time All Star, Andrew Bailey, but I think we all need to temper our expectations. This is a guy who's 5 years removed from Tommy John and has spent parts of each of the last 2 seasons on the DL. He's got great stuff, and he could serve as a vital part of the team's bullpen, but viewing him as a "piece" as opposed to the "answer" at closer would probably be a more apt description.


2) The 2012 debut of my college hoops poll is right around the corner. I know I'm also "teasing" it, but I don't like to trot it out until conference play actually starts. I'm funny like that. I like to actually see teams play against legit and varying competition before I judge them. It may not be the most poplar strategy, but that would only mean it's more in line with all of the strategies that usually prove the most useful and effective...



So there ya go, kids. You've got that to look forward to while you're sipping your champagne and searching for a comfy couch to crash on. Have a Happy New Year, and I'll catch you in the Ten-Deuce!


Teddy Williams...
100...

#$>

1 comments:

Anonymous said...

I'm going to see DJ D-Bag spin tonight, wanna roll???

Ted

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