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Friday, September 30, 2011

Week 4 Picks: Some Prenuptial Perspective...


Well, my friends.  I'm off to Long Island for the weekend, to attend the wedding of my good friend, Ian Hanbach.  Like, I'm literally about to walk out the door.  Which means I don't have a ton of time to spend this week verbalizing the reasoning behind my weekly picks.  Granted, I usually just use that time to somehow tie in jokes about transvestites, Meth & Kevin Pittsnogle, but either way, this week that's time I just don't have.  I'm not hanging you out to dry, though.  I've still got the advice that will help you towards a very fruitful weekend.  Or, at least, I'll make sure you have a better weekend than Terr Francona.  A low bar, perhaps, buy you have to start somewhere, and I have to touch on the fact that the head coach of the Red Sox could be fired at any minute, so here we are.  Two birds, one stone, and a bunch of football picks...

Good luck this weekend, kids.  And enjoy...

Week 4 Picks


Oakland Raiders (+4.5) vs New England Patriots + OVER 55

Last week, I bet against the Patriots, and I won.  This week, I plan on doing exactly the same thing.  Not want Patriots' fans want to hear, I know, but if they lost to the Bills in Buffalo, there's no reason to think they won't lose to a similarly high powered offensive squad in the Oakland Raiders.  Maybe Buffalo and Oakland go about scoring points in different ways (Buffalo in the air, Oakland on the ground), but seeing as the Patriots defense can't seem to stop any aspect at all of an NFL offense, I tend to think how they go about trying to score really isn't going to matter.  Sure, I'll admit that Jason Campbell is no Ryan Fitzpatrick, but he is in the same class as Chad Henne, who lit the Pats up.  Combine that with the fact that the defense behind him is much better than the one in Miami (at least at applying pressure), and you can see why I think that at the very least, the Raiders will make this a game...

I bet it's decided by a late FG, either made or missed by Janikowski, and either the Pats walk away with a much needed road win, or the Raiders start to swell (and likely become unhinged) after beating both the Jets and the Patriots in back to back weeks.  Unless this is the year they finally figured things out, which I'm doubting it is.  I mean, that senile old bastard, Al Davis, is still lingerin' around up there somewhere, isn't he?  Gotta think he'll find some way to screw it up even if his players don't...

San Diego Chargers (-7) vs Miami Dolphins

Before I sat down, I figured maybe I'd do some sort of theme this week, for Ian, based on things and teams he likes.  So, my first course of action was to go check the line on Ian's team, the Miami Dolphins.  When I saw their match up and their line, however, that potential strategy went right out the window.  Sorry, Imann, but I'm actually installing the Chargers as one of my top picks this week.  Oh, and they'll probably be giving you a wedding present in the form of a new coach, sooner rather than later.  So you got that goin' for ya, which is nice.  There's also the good possibility that I just guaranteed they pull off the weekend's biggest upset.  So you got that goin' for you, too.  Also not terrible...


Seattle Seahawks (+4.5) vs Atlanta Falcons + UNDER 39.5

Terrible is, however, what the Atlanta Falcon offensive line has been to begin the season, and I've officially stopped believing that they have a good chance of winning this year's Super Bowl.  Meh, I know a potentially great team when I see one, and that team's not it.  They're still very talented, but they're flawed up front, and that's gonna cost them.  Should cost them this weekend, too, as Seattle excels at stopping the run, which means more passes for Matty Ice, and more chances for him to get sacked.  Not a good combination for the Falcons, and mixed that in with the "take Seattle at home" philosophy, that makes this a relatively easy call to make.  All be it a shady one...


Buffalo Bills (-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals

I believe in Buffalo.  Question is, will they be too bloated on their on Kool Aid to win a game they definitely should win?  My guess is no.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is too smart for that, and the fact that he's visiting his old team means it's very unlikely he won't come into this thing prepared to put on a show.  I know it's a road game, and I know the Bengals aren't nearly as bad as they look on paper, but the Bills are just too hot right now...

Green Bay Packers (-12.5) vs Denver Broncos

That's what the Packers are right now, too.  HOT.  That's why I'm taking them against Denver, despite the big number.  I know they could win this game convincingly and still not cover the spread, but I'm thinking we're just as likely to see a blowout, so I'll take my chances with the Beard and his potent offense.  31-10, or somethin' like that...



New York Jets (+3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens + OVER 41.5

It's another big game for Rex Ryan and the Jets, as this week the ole foot master takes his team back to his old stomping grounds to take on the inconsistent Ravens.  Which is a lot of what I'm banking on in this game.  The Ravens inconsistency.  I don't think they'l' have any trouble "getting up" for the Jets, but between Rex Ryan having a better than average handle on their defensive scheme, and the Jets coming off a loss, I just tend to think this isn't the best spot to be taking them at home as nearly 4 point favorites.  Hence, I'm taking the Jets.  I'm also of the belief that this is one of those games that should open up offensively in the second half, helping take care of that OVER.  23-20 either way sounds about right to me, in what should end up being one of the more physical games here in the first quarter of the season...


Here's the rest of the slate.  Nothing too earth shattering, but let's hope that turns out to be a good thing...


Chicago Bears (-6.5) vs Carolina Panthers

Tennessee Titans (+1.5) @ Cleveland Browns

Detroit Lions (+1.5) @ Dallas Cowboys

Kansas City Chiefs (-1) vs Minnesota Vikings

Washington Redskins (-1.5) @ St. Louis Rams

Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5) vs San Francisco 49ers

New Orleans Saints (-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Houston Texans (-4) vs Pittsburgh Steelers

New York Giants (-1.5) @ Arizona Cardinals


Monday Night
Indianapolis Colts (+10) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Indy sucks, but that's just too many points.  Especially considering the fight Indy showed in prime time last week against the Steelers.  Tampa should win this game, there's just no way I'm spotting them those 10 points...


Last Week: 12-9-0

Overall: 35-24-2 (.581)


Is it me, or do these two pictures do a shady justice to the image you have of those two team's respective fan bases?  No? Well maybe had I not cropped out the corn cob Meth pipe in the 2nd picture you'd be singing a different tune.  I do like both Florida and Nebraska as underdogs this weekend, though, despite the fact that it's quite possible that they both get roughed up.  Oh well, better to side with the points and the chicks without shirts, I always say.  At least I'm gonna start always saying that now...

NCAA Top 25 Picks
(12) Florida (+4) vs (3) Alabama

(6) Stanford (-20.5) vs UCLA

(8) Nebraska (+9.5) @ (7) Wisconsin

Auburn (+10) @ (10) South Carolina

(13) Clemson (+7) @ (11) Virginia Tech

(14) Texas A&M (-3) @ (18) Arkansas

(15) Baylor (-3.5) @ Kansas St.

Iowa St. (+9.5) vs (17) Texas

SMU (+10) @ (20) TCU

Northwestern (+8) @ (24) Illinois


Last Week: 9-4-0

Overall: 25-11-1 (.869)


So there you have it, kids.  My prenuptial picks.  I'll get to the divorce going to down in Boston when we talk again next week, but for now it's off to a wedding.  Where, by the way, I hear the over/under on hot single chicks is trending upward at 7 1/2 (a sexy midget, perhaps?).  The corn cob Meth pipe count currently sits at 2 1/12, though, so I'll probably want to temper my expectations...


Have a good weekend, friends.  And I'll catch you on the flipman...


Teddy Williams...
100...

#$>

11 comments:

beachwoman said...

Perfect picture for Ian's wedding weekend.

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