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Friday, September 23, 2011

Week 3 Picks: The Fitzbook

So, has the new Facebook format got you down?  Wondering how it is you can switch things back to the way they used to be?  Well, I've got just what you're looking for.  No, I don't know how to switch your news feed back to the way it once was (pretty sure you can't), and I'm not sure why a site that's user base is often lauding it's efficient simplicity ("No Disneyland, no LIVE nude girls" The Social Network) would want to perform such a massive aesthetic overhaul, but I can offer you this:  A respite from it all, and a chance to make some money...

Yep, for those of you that came here thinking I'd be able to help you restore the order of your social network, you've been had.  I just know that so many people are addicted to the freakin' site, and upset about it's changes, that I'd probably garner at least 100 more hits for this post if I just feigned that I had some sort of solution to the problem.  Which at this point it should be painfully obvious, that I do not.  I am going to work Mark Zuckerberg into my NFL picks this week, though, so I guess it's not all for not...

Oh, and for what it's worth, I'm guessing that people will eventually come around to this new format on Facebook.  For one, because like I said before, people are just flat out addicted.  But also because it seems to be bringing a lot more "Twitter" elements to the table in the form of it's new Ticker.  A feature I think people are going to quickly realized they are very pumped for, no matter how distracting it currently is.  When Facebook buys Twitter, that will suck, because then all the Teds that've been ripping Twitter this whole time will start abusing and misusing it the same way they do Facebook.  But that's a different worry for a different day...

For now, all you should be worried about is where your money is going to land this weekend, and why.  Those answers, I've got for you in spades, as we put "Zuckerberg's Famous Pig" in our rear view, and go headlong into this week's picks...

Enjoy...


Week 3 Picks
Fitzbook: You can't throw for 400 yards per game yards without making a few enemies...

Buffalo Bills (+8.5) vs New England Patriots + OVER 54


Mark Zuckerberg may be screwin' up Facebook, but there's a certain ex classmate of his (I'm sure they chilled on the regular) that's actually doing the Harvard Crimson proud.  You guessed it, friends.  Ryan Fitzpatrick, the man who was, up until recently, known only for his perfect Wonderlic score and seemingly out of place alma mater, is now the QB flavor of the week, and the main reason I'm giving the stubborn Bills a chance against the Pats this week...

Now, let's be clear.  I think the Patriots are the better team, and I think they're going to win.  It's just that, unlike in past week's, I think the Bills have either A) enough talent to keep it close and/or B) the type of offense that should put them in prime position for a "backdoor cover" of the point spread.  I like them to score a lot of points against this Patriots defense, let's just put it that way, and in I think that style should put them in prime position to keep it close.  Or again, at least give the illusion that it was close.  Hence, covering that healthy point spread...

The new "Beard"???
Emotion also factors big into this pick for me.  As I predicted last week might be the case, this has turned into the biggest game to hit Buffalo since...I don't know, probably some hockey nonsense in the late 90's, and that place is gonna be jumpin'.  Not that the Patriots can't handle it, but it just works in Buffalo's favor.  And unlike the Patriots' fans whom I chastised last week for lacking any sort of "cheering etiquette", the Bills fans actually know what they're doing.  Not outside of the stadium, or else they wouldn't be living in Buffalo, but they sure as Hell know how to cheer...Which actually gets me thinkin' on what I'd rather have; smart fans in a shit hole of a city, or PinkHats in one of the best regions in the country?  That's a pickle, let me tell ya, but based on the answer's complexity, I'd say it's in everyone's best interest that I save that topic for another day...

It should be what we've come to expect from the Patriots so far in this season's early going.  A shootout that's closer at times than it appears it should be, but one that they seemingly have control of for at least the majority of the 2nd half.  Difference here, is I think the Bills have just enough mojo goin' to ultimately cover this number...

Pats win, Bills cover, and the Buffalo faithful wake up on Monday realizing that Winter is on it's way, and they're life is about the return to it's normal state of suckiness.  But hey, at least sometimes Ryan Fitzpatrick as  an ill beard.  SO you've got that goin' for ya, which is nice.  Not nice enough to make up for living in what looks like the US version of Siberia, but it's a start...

Carolina Panthers (-3.5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars + OVER 42.5

I guess I've got "Fig Fever".  Which is what I've dubbed the current craze over rookie QB Cam "Big Fig" Newton.  That, and I'm still not sure how the Jaguars are even a semi competitive team with the state of their QB position.  Pretty much the long and short of how this game ended up so high in this week's picks.  It also REEKS for those very same reasons (as in, why is the spread only 3.5?), but I'll take my chances and try to ride the Fig to his first victory as an NFL starter.  Yeah, didn't realize his team was 0-2, did ya?  Just speaks to how good he's been over these first two weeks...

What this picture lacks in relevance, it makes up for in awesomeness.
Somehow it kinda just sums up this game, doesn't it??
Oakland Raiders (+3.5) vs New York Jets

They're not playing at 1, so I'm not using the "East coast team travels West and plays early" philosophy.  Although remember that one, it's effective.  No, I'm not saying that's why I like the Raiders to cover AND win, but there is something about making that trip all the way across the country that has me siding with the Silver and Black.  It's just a long trip to make.  That, and I've always felt the Raiders were one of those teams that plays up and down to their competition.  With the Jets in town, they'll play up, and after that devastating collapse last week against Buffalo, they'll be amped up and out for blood.  Another stadium that should be jumpin' this week with a big time opponent in town...

Oh and keep an eye on the Oakland D-line.  Richard Seymour, Tommy Kelly.  If those guys come to play, it could be a lonnng day for Mark Sanchez and the Jets offensive line...

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) vs San Francisco 49ers + UNDER 38

Whenever a player on a team gets caught with 8.5 lbs of marijuana, scales, and distributing supplies just days before a game, you have to pick that team to win.  So thank you, Jerome Simpson, for making this such an easy decision...

#CannabisKarma

Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I actually had the Bucs in this spot all week, but like a dumb schmuck, I've gone and changed my mind at the last minute.  Translation there, is bet the farm on the Bucs...

And I didn't change my mind because I have a lot of stock in the Falcons this season, either.  IT's just that the more I thought about it, the more I liked their chances for success.  I mean, Detroit won in Tampa, right?  And isn't Atlanta, at the very least, as good a team as Detroit?  I think so, and that's why I ultimately decided to go with the dirty birds.  They gained a lot of confidence last week with their come from behind win over Philly, and I say they ride that momentum to a nice divisional win in sunny Tampa.  It will probably be close.  The Bucs have an uncanny ability to stay in games, despite having no real identity.  But in the end, I think Matt Ryan and friends can build off their success from a week ago, and firmly put their week 1 drubbing in the rear view...


Detroit Lions (+3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings

My only hope here, is that when Ndamukong Suh does to Donovan McNabb what I expect he's going to do to him, I'm watching it LIVE.  Because I don't think they're going to be allowed to air that type of thing again. You know, one human being eating another human being's flesh like that, and then spitting it back out at him while his corpse spews blood and Campbell's Soup all over the field...

It's a big "IF", asking the Lions to stop Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson, but if they can even come close to containing him, that should be more than enough to keep them in this game.  A game I fancy them to win, I might add.  Not just because Donovan McNabb is awful, which he is, but because the Lions are the team we thought they might be, and there's no way they're letting that Super Bowl puker off the hook.  Not even in his own joint...

The next time Yahoo! is right, will certainly
be the first time...
Arizona Cardinals (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks

Much like I say never to change your picks at the last minute, I've also frequently reminded you that you should never bet against the Seahawks as an underdog at home.  Well, yet again, here's to hoping I'm wrong. Or at the very least, that I'm able to get away with this...

I just don't buy Seattle as a legitimate team, home or away, and while I know the Cardinal's aren't world beaters themselves, I just have faith that somehow, some way, they'll be able to walk away from this thing having won by a touchdown.  I also like the fact that Yahoo! Fantasy Sports has been pumping all week that Seattle is great against the run, so people should sit Arizona RB Beanie Wells.  Those Teds over at Yahoo! are NEVER right.  That means a big day for Beanie, and a nice win for the Cards...

Tennessee Titans (-6.5) vs Denver Broncos

Undoubtedly my shadiest top pick of the week, but I just have a feeling about Tennessee.  They're not flashy, but they're solid on all fronts.  Not to mention they have one of the most explosive WRs in the game right now, in Kenny Britt.  I'm not sure if a lot of it is Matt Hasselbeck stabilizing the team with solid QB play, or just the fact that they're playing with no pressure due to lack of expectations, but whatever it is, it's working quite well.  Which is the polar opposite of the Denver Broncos, who are just a complete mess.  Having to plug Tim Tebow in at WR because a guy decides not play but doesn't tell anyone?  No, yeah.  Yeah, everything is just fine over there...

Hmmmmmmmmm...
Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) @ Indianapolis Colts

What can I say?  The Colts suck.  Their place might be a little rowdier than usual due to the Sunday Night atmosphere, but that's about it.  Seriously.  What, have you not seen them play, or something?  The real betting line here, should be on whose face get's shown more often: Kerry Collins or Peyton Manning.  I don't think that one will be close, either.  He won't even have to be in the building and Peyton should win by a landslide.  Certainly not what NBC had in mind when they first saw this match up on their slate, I can tell you that...


Here are the rest.  I think Green Bay is the best team in the NFL, right now, but I just don't see them going undefeated.  At Chicago might be an ideal spot for them to finally slip up...

Chicago Bears (+3.5) vs Green Bay Packers

New York Giants (+8) vs Philadelphia Eagles + OVER 46.5

Baltimore Ravens (-4) @ St. Louis Rams

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs Miami Dolphins

Kansas City Chiefs (+14.5) @ San Diego Chargers

New Orleans Saints (-4) vs Houston Texans + OVER 51


Monday Night
He's a gamer, there's no doubting that...
Dallas Cowboys (pick) vs Washington Redskins (*line now posted as Dallas (-5). Whatever, not my problem!)

As I sit here this morning, there's still no spread for this game due to questions about Tony Romo's availability,  so as a "Pick 'em" I'll choose to side with the Cowboys.  More or less just due to the Brett Favre Factor.  I just know Romo is gonna come stumblin out there on Monday Night, with 4 broken ribs and a Zip Lock bag serving as his left lung, and somehow chuck his way into football immortality.  At least temporarily.  Much like the way Brett Favre would do now and again.  It doesn't make him a great player, but it does make him gritty.  And while I have been a big supporter of Rex Grossman and Mike Shannahan, this year, I think between the venue and the emotion, it'll be too much to overcome in what should otherwise be a pretty balanced divisional match up...


Last Week: 12-5-2

Overall: 23-15-2 (.600)


Welcome to the "Pros OR Hoes?" version of this week's NCAA Top 25 Picks.  OK, there really isn't a theme, but I wanted to use a line like that to the caption of these two pictures, and I just couldn't figure it out to my liking.  So, this is how I chose to remedy the situation.  Oh, and for the record, their both "pros".  Some people are just better than their jobs than others...

I continued my winning ways, last week, and look to keep that going this week by turning my back on FSU (scorned lover) and riding some unheralded road dogs to some sneaky covers.  Now, I've never ridden an unheralded road dog before, but I'd assume one of those ladies above has a nice instructional video involving peanut butter and a leash that they could let me borrow...

What?  We all know you can find that on the Interweb in about 5 seconds...


NCAA Top 25 Picks
(1) Oklahoma (-21) vs Missouri

(2) LSU (-6.5) @ (16) West Virginia
Chris Hansen pictures kept coming up on
Google Images when I searched for "Clemson"
+ "sexy" or "hot", so here we are...

(3) Alabama (-11.5) vs (14) Arkansas

(7) Oklahoma St. (+4) @ (8) Texas A&M

Wyoming (+24.5) vs (9) Nebraska

(10) Oregon (-15.5) @ Airzona

(21) Clemson (-2) vs (11) Florida St.

Vanderbilt (+16.5) @ (12) South Carolina

(15) Florida (-19.5) @ Kentucky

San Diego St. (+10.5) @ (22) Michigan

(23) USC (+2.5) @ Arizona St.

Western Michigan (+13.5) @ (24) Illinois

(25) Georgia Tech (-6.5) vs UNC


Last Week: 8-6-0

Overall: 16-7-1 (.688)


That's it for me, friends.  I know a lot of you have been asking about my take on the Full Tilt Poker situation, but I'm going to wait for some of that smoke to clear before I actually begin to formulate any thoughts on the matter.  Again, I'm quirky in that I like to wait for some facts before I go ahead and make my decision.  Unlike the Department of Justice, that just likes to throw around the word "Ponzi Scheme" in hopes of immediately ending the trial in the court of public opinion.  Maybe they're right, who knows, but that's certainly not a call I'm willing to make with such limited information...

Have a good weekend, friends.  And I'll catch you on the flipman...


Teddy Williams...
100...

#$>

3 comments:

Frosco said...

Was going to "like" this article, until you had to throw not one, but two clemson bitches in my face. We lost to the number 1 team in the country, and were able to tie it with our 160lb backup QB, some slack?? With that said, I wouldn't bet on this game if you told me I could sleep with one of the chick's above. Ok, that's a blatant lie, but you get the picture.

Brand X said...

I found a new place to get my picks.

http://video.adultswim.com/carl/carls-lock-patriots-vs-bills.html?cid=vplayer_carl_carls-lock-patriots-vs-bills

Frosco said...

Haha Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week. Done and done.

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