Pages

Friday, December 17, 2010

NFL Week 15 Picks: It's Christmas on Crack...


IT's late December, and it's more or less more of the same.  It's bitter cold out, a Nor Easter is on it's way, and with the shopping days quickly dwindling, the roadways and retail outlets have been turned into what I'd imagine Bloodsport on Ice would look like...

It's the holiday season, kids, and all that comes with it.  The good, the bad, and the ugly.  Well, that is unless you're a Boston fan, in which you've only been experiencing the "good".  In New York, however, they seemed to have skipped right by the "bad", and steamrolled their way right on into the "ugly".  And while I'm usually one that revels in my own team's success rather than in my opposition's demise, even I can't help but take a smarmy satisfaction in the way the holiday season has been panning out...
Frank Dukes!...on ice?!?!?

While the Patriots have been world beaters on their ascent to the top of the NFL, and the Red Sox have signed 2 of the most coveted free agents on the market, the Jets have been busy embarrassing themselves at every turn while the Yankees have had to publicly lick their wounds after striking out with Cliff Lee.  HELL, even the Celtics beat the Knicks in agonizing fashion!  Ahhh yes.  It's the way the holidays always should be.  A gentle, picturesque Winter for New England, full of magic and wonder, and a season full of brown slush and busted candy canes for the good people of New York.  Pretty much, we get presents, and they get coal.  Well, at least the few in that city that actually celebrate Christmas.  For those that don't, feel free to substitute "coal" with "undercooked Chinese food", and you'll start to understand what I'm talking out...

IT may not be a Christmas miracle, the way the last month has gone so lopsidedly in favor of those from the Original 6, but make no mistake.  It's like Christmas on Crack, around here.  All the magic of Christmas, but with that extra little rush that you would get after smoking a big fat bowl of crack....or so I've been told...

But crackhead or not, I'm here to ride that merry wave of good tidings to not only a holiday worthy performance with this week's picks, but also hopefully put my fantasy team in position to leave me a little extra somethin' under this year's tree.  That's right, you're gonna hear about my fantasy team again.  But hey, it's freakin' Christmas time, man.  So cut me some yuletide slack already...

So to recap.  Everyone in New York is going to have a crappy Christmas, everyone in Boston is going to have a great Christmas, and my fantasy team is going to do more work than a bunch of elves on meth.  OR crack.  Yeah, at this point we might as well just stick to the theme...

Ho Ho Ho, my damies, and I wish you all nothing but the best as we hit the holiday home stretch.  Enjoy...        

Week 15 Picks
New England Patriots (-11) vs Green Bay Packers

The source of all my joy, while at the same time, being the source of all my indecision.  Mostly because Aaron Rodgers is my starting fantasy quarterback, but we'll get to that later on...

At this point, with the Patriots, they've just become one of those team's that you don't DARE bet against.  No matter what the spread.  Not only have they won 5 in a row for the 2nd time this year (much like my fantasy team) but in winning by an average of more than 21 points in those 5 games, they've taken all the mystery out of whether or not to pick them to cover the spread.  The only mystery here, is whether or not Rodgers is going to play, and even if he does, I feel safe enough with that 11 points to again take the Patriots as my LOCK OF THE WEEK.  They're just playing too good right now...

And while I'm at it, I have to props to my good buddy, Josh Astin, who almost one month ago to the day told me "Hey, tell people in your blog that it's gonna be a Pats/Saints Super Bowl, and the Pats are gonna win.  Ya know, so they won't have to worry about that anymore".  Amazing, right?  And prophetic in more ways than 1.  Not only do I now agree right now with his prediction, but I think it's prudent to point out that the style of play that has the Pats cruising right now is eerily reminiscent of the way the Saints played last year on their way to winning the Super Bowl.  A high powered offense that's as well balanced as it is efficient, and an opportunistic defense that almost seems to come up with game changing plays as if they were scripted out.  It's a dangerous combination, to say the least, and the reason why everyone and there brother is goin gaga over the Pats right now.  And rightly so...

I won't even give a "with Rodgers" and "without Rodgers" score.  The Pats are gonna cover, plain and simple.  But just for posterity's sake, how about Pats 41 Packers 17.  There...




Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) vs New York Jets

I remember reading somewhere that when it goes bad for coach's with Rex Ryan's "ra-ra" style, it goes REAL bad REAL fast.  That place, was right here at RoochNation.com...or possibly @RoochNation on Twitter, I can't remember.  And while my thoughts may not have been totally original on that topic, it seems that those of us who prescribed to that theory are beginning to see what we thought all along would most likely happen.  The team is playin' like crap, they're coachin' like crap, and more or less they're just flat out embarrassing themselves...

WE KNOW THAT EVERYONE ELSE DOES SHADY SHIT, BUT YOU GOT CAUGHT!!  And when you get caught, you have to deal with the consequences, and move on.  Or in the immortal words of Don Corleone you need to "ACT LIKE A MAN!"  You don't bitch and moan about how you got screwed because (whiny voice) "Ehhhhh well everyone else is doing it!"...

It all comes down to adversity eventually showing one's true colors, and while I don't think the Jets have reached the point of no return, they're definitely teetering on the brink.  I'm not in love with the size of the point spread (feel a lot better at 3-4), but just like with the Pats, I'm choosing to ride the momentum.  Just so happens in this case, that Polar Rex-press is headed in the opposite direction as Bill B. Hoodsworth and his band of merry men...

Now let's go have a God damned candy cane...


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) vs Detroit Lions

The photo above not only embodies the focal point of my fantasy football agony, but it also serves as a good reason to take the Bucs over the Lions as one of my Top Picks...

Detroit was at home, hyped up for a division rival, and even after they knocked their QB from the game, they still could only win by 4...and only score 7 points, to boot.  Now granted, I know that Tampa has one of the worst run defenses in the league, and that can always keep an opponent in the game, but Detroit's running game is so banged up (as is most of it's offense) I don't even see that happening.  It's also important to note that, at 8-5, the Bucs really need this win to keep pace in the NFC playoff race. Incentive, always a good thing...

So even though they're only a modest 3-3 at home this season, I see no reason why they should have any trouble beating the hapless Lions, who are basically Ndamukong Suh an a bunch of Teds.  Oh, and Detroit being winless on the road this year doesn't exactly hurt either...


Atlanta Falcons (-6) @ Seattle Seahawks

OK, if the Falcons cover this week, then I'll officially be sold on them as a legit contender.  They're only 2 losses this year have come on the road, and they're playing against a notoriously (and shadily) good home team that's (shadily) fighting for their playoff lives.  So despite being 11-2, they still have something to prove, at least to me, and they can go a long way towards doing that with a convincing win in Seattle.  Then you'll really start to hear the Matt Ryan for MVP and the Mike Smith for Coach of the Year talk start to heat up.  There's no way Matty Ice takes home the hardware (paging Tom Terrific), but I'd give Smith a 1 in 3 shot up against Raheem the Dream and Steve Spagnuolo.  Yeah, no Belichick.  It's one of those awards that doesn't like to continually reward excellence.  No real beef on my part, it's just the way it is...and why those awards mean SHIT and should almost never be considered when talking Hall of Fame or stuff like that...  


New Orleans Saints (+2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens

From a team I'm still waiting to convince me, to one that I feel certain is headed for glory.  That team, of course, is the Josh Astin approved New Orleans Saints...

They've won 6 straight, 2nd only to Atlanta's 7, and with players starting to come back healthy and getting into rhythm, it's a frightening probability that they're only going to continue to gel and get better.  That's probably what Josh saw happening all along, so we'd be wise to take advantage of his predictional prowess while we still can...

Baltimore still hasn't proven to me that they're elite, and coming off the short week the Saints are the smart play.  Ya know, if the whole "Josh said so" logic didn't have you swayed...


Oakland Raiders (-6.5) vs Denver Broncos

The AFC West has been this year's NFC South for me.  Just when I think I have the power structure figured out, the team's go out and play the exact OPPOSITE of what I predicTED.  Nevertheless, I'm not deterred.  And despite having been burned by the Raiders as favorites nearly EVERY time I've picked them this year, it's a little piece of Fantasy intrigue that has me riding so high on the Silver & Black...

See, when Aaron Rodgers went down, and it was clear I would need to make other plans at QB, I scoured the waiver wire looking for viable options.  Then, I took that information to my most trusted advisers (yes, even I ask for help on occasions such as these), with the outcome of those discussions being that I replace Mr. Rodgers with Oakland QB, Jason Campbell.  Seemed like a sound enough plan considering, so I gladly made the move.  Then, as is want to happen in situations such as these, new information became available.  Not only were there reports that Campbell may be experiencing pain due to "stingers", but news emerged that a certain defense would be without their best player this week.  And it just so happened, that defense has the worst numbers against the pass in the entire NFL, and the QB they were set to face, was coming off a game in which he threw 3...count 'em...3 touchdown passes.  Oh, and it just so happens that particular QB was sitting right there on the waiver wire.  One peg down from Alex "the PIG" Smith...



Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans OVER 46

...That man's name, is Kerry freaking Collins.  With Houston DE Mario Williams being ruled out, and the Texans giving up BY FAR the most passing yards in the league, passing on Collins (puns everywhere) just became too hard to do.  Campbell is a solid option, too, but with all that's at stake, I figured it was a better play to go with the grizzled veteran.  Sure, he might be good for 2 picks, but I'm also bankin' that he's good for 2-3 TDs.  Wishful thinking, perhaps, and doubly so since I'm taking the OVER here, but it's the type of move that seems just crazy enough to work...

Then again, the last time I picked the OVER of a game my fantasy QB was in, he got concussed and the game total fell more than 30 points short. I also joked after making the pick that I had just doomed the game to be 13-10, so needless to say I won't be making any of those flippant remarks here today...

Kerry Collins.  I remembered when you were drafted, and now you have a grizzled beard and can barely move.  LET'S DO THIS, BUDDY!  Let's do it for OJ McDuffie and Kijana Carter, all your Penn St. brethern that never had the shot at unlikely fantasy glory.  And most of all, let's do it for Rooch.  God knows he's earned it, that crazy bastard...     


Jacksonville Jaguars (+5) @ Indianapolis Colts + OVER 48

Two things seem to happen every year in the AFC South.  Peyton Manning leads the Colts to 10+ wins, and Jack Del Rio somehow overcomes a sloppy start to not only keep his job, but look like a genius.  This season, only one of those things is gonna happen.  Which one, you ask?  Well you're smart, aren't ya?  Take a look at the pick and see if you can figure it out...

And if you can't, here's a hint. "CUT THOSE WINS! CUT THOSE WINS!"  



Here's a look at the rest of the slate, or "sleight" for those that are Christmas-ly inclined.  Should the Dolphins win, they could be well on their way towards doing their part towards the most hilarious conspiracy this side of the grassy knoll, but I'll get to that next week as the story continues to unfold.  And this week, in lieu of my usual smattering of scantily clad coeds, I give you a special holiday treat.  A bunch of half naked chicks doing their best to give Christmas that little somethin' extra.  Oh, and if you can spot the tranny, you might just get a little somethin' extra from me under your tree this year!...

..../I ain't givin' any of you shit, but one of those chicks is totally a dude.  Happy hunting!...


Cleveland Browns (+3.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Redskins UNDER 47.5

New York Giants (-2.5) vs Philadelphia Eagles + OVER 48

Carolina Panthers (-2.5) vs Arizona Cardinals

Miami Dolphins (-5.5) vs Buffalo Bills

Kansas City Chiefs (-1) @ St. Louis Rams


Monday Night




Minnesota Vikings (+6) vs Chicago Bears

Speaking of shady QBs.  If you thought Kerry Collins would be the weirdest QB I might be starting in my Fantasy lineup this week, then you my friend would have been sadly mistaken.  That's right, like many other fantasy junkies, I've taken advantage of a Yahoo! loophole, and added likely Viking starter, Joe Webb, to my team as a WR/QB.  Meaning even if he starts and plays at quarterback, which it appears as though he will, I can still start and play him at wide receiver on my Fantasy team.  Quite the coups, if it actually pans out, with surprisingly very little risk.  At least in terms of my league's scoring.  But I won't bore you with that...

That being said, I'm not picking the Vikings to cover on Monday because I think Joe Webb is going to light the world on fire, and in doing so, lead my fantasy team to the title game for the 3rd time in 4 years.  Nope, what's got me siding with Minny in this spot are the crappy conditions these teams are set to play in.  With the Metrodome still...well, collapsed, this game's been moved to Gopher Stadium.  And lemme tell ya, the scene there ain't pretty. IT's frozen tundra like you read about, and very reminiscent of Veteran's Stadium from the not too distant past.  To put it simply, the playing conditions are gonna be awful.  And we all saw how the Bears played in crappy conditions, even when they were at home.  I trace it back to their head coach, Lovie Smith, and how he doesn't do well preparing his teams.  It's cost them in the past, and it will cost them again here against the Vikings.  It might not cost them the win, but in my mind it's going to make it mighty tough for them to cover that 6 points...

Now, I just need to decide it it's Webb, or Danny Woodhead, that I choose to lead my team to glory.  A decision I'm hoping I won't have to make until I have my place in the finals all wrapped up...


Last Week: 10-6-1 (Top Picks: 3-5-0)

Top Picks: 55-49-3 (.528)

Overall: 121-90-5 (.572)

LOCK OF THE WEEK: 10-9-0


So here's to you, my fellow Christmas Crackheads.  And here's to hopin' that Saint Nick puts down the pipe just long enough to make all your Christmas dreams come true...or at least long enough to slang a few presents down the chimney without breaking into cold sweats...

Happy Holidays, everyone!


Teddy Williams...
100...

#$>

0 comments:

Post a Comment