Friday, November 19, 2010

NFL Week 11 Picks: A Preemptive Gobble-Gobble

Well, my good friends, I may have stepped in it.  And by "it", I mean a big steaming pile of karma shit...

As many of you may remember, earlier in the season I was enlisted by WPRO's Matt Allen to help him with his picks.  Through the first 4 weeks, it was ugly, and soon there after, Matt and I decided that it was best we part ways.  Since then, as my record will attest, I've been on quite the run.  For me it was more or less what I call "P for the C" ( or par for the course), that the second I stopped giving a high profile personality advice I started to deliver, but at risk of derailing my success, I didn't want to tempt fate.  I mean, what good would it do me to tell Matt how well I was doing?  He'd either A) want to enlist my help again, which after my bragging would have me setting the bar ridiculously high OR B) He'd just playfully curse me out and tell me I'm full of it.  Now obviously the 2nd outcome doesn't really hurt me in any way, but the pleasure I would get from that back and forth would in no way serve as solace should in it's aftermath my positive momentum take a sudden turn for the worse...

So, what obviously happened this week?  Matt casually mentioned how poor he'd been doing lately, at which point I sheepishly divulged my recent success.  Especially when it came to picking straight up winners, which is exactly what he was looking for (4 straight weeks of 10+ wins, to be precise).  One thing led to another, and while we agreed that he would still be making his picks, he thought that in light of my recent success he'd still be wise to solicit my advice.  My advice?  Take the Dolphins...

Yeah.  So I got that goin' for me, which is not so nice.  Now I'm in my own head, wondering if I've upset the Gods, and doomed the rest of my 2010 campaign. Like a young Hank Hill, I'm wondering if my over the top end zone celebration will cause me to get struck down with a championship losing and career ending injury.  And seeing as I'm probably the only one whose going to get that reference, I'm anxious to see if perhaps my pride hast goneth before my fall...or something like that...

Well, there's only one way to find out.  Gotta tempt that fate, gotta test that karma's mettle.  Gotta see who's the one with the world, and who's the one that's paying the rent.  SO put up your dukes, karma, and let's get it on...

It's week 11 kids, and Thanksgiving is right around the corner.  A preemptive gobble-gobble to you all, and enjoy...  

Week 11 Picks

New England Patriots (-3.5) vs Indianapolis Colts

Remember 4th & 2?  I only ask because I was shocked how many Patriots fans had never seen Wes Welker kick before.  I mean, not like he did it against the Patriots or anything.  But I digress...

Or do I? Another trait I don't share with most fans, besides a memory that stretches past what you had for breakfast, is that I've never really viewed the Colts as quite the rival they're hyped to be.  I know it's a big rivalry, but I've always been of the opinion that the games with the Steelers were always the biggest ones of the schedule.  I point to the fact that when the Pats were good, the Steelers actually beat them sometimes.  Sure the Colts have had the Pats number lately (4 of the last 5), but when the Patriots were consistently winning Super Bowls (that's right, I just used the past tense) it was the Steelers that always fought them tooth and nail while Indy could never quite get over the hump.  The Patriots were to the Colts what the Yankees were to the Red Sox. No matter how good they were, they just couldn't seem to get by them.  Until, as is want to happen, they finally did. But when they did, they were just beating a good team, not a team amidst a dynastic run. Maybe I'm picking nits here, but that's just how I've always looked at it...

As for the game at hand, I think last year's failure on that pivotal 4th & 2 can only serve as additional motivational tool for a New England team that seems to be in primed position to start a good run towards the playoffs.  Indy's dinged up and this time, they aren't at home.  I look for the Pats to attack them in a similar way they did the Steelers, and put Manning under a good amount of pressure right up the middle.  That's where a pocket passer like Peyton is susceptible, and that's exactly what the Pats were able to do so effectively to Big Ben and Pittsburgh.  And because I see them employing a similar game plan, I also envision a similar result.  They control the game early, but pull just far enough ahead that they allow Peyton and the Colt offense to seemingly pass themselves back in the game.  But not really...

Pats 27 Colts 17...and it won't be as close as the score...

Tennessee Titans (-7) vs Washington Redskins

Pretty much just picking against McNabb at this point, but part of me just has to marvel at how bizarre a career he's had.  Booed on Drafty Day because he wasn't Ricky Williams (How'd that work out?).  Hyped as  a running QB (because he was black), yet he never really was.  Given big contracts even though he consistently proved he wasn't good in big games.  Given endorsements, though he was never a crowd or locker room favorite.  And now this.  He signs a huge extension mere days after being benched in the 4th quarter for alleged conditioning issues, and then goes out and lays a huge egg on Monday Night Football.  Days after that, the talk was that Washington might just cut him after the season and be done with it...

McNabb.  Whatever.  I met him once, and he was a prick.  So not only do I hope he gets cut, and that his team loses by more than 7 points this weekend, but I hope when he gets home after the game and is sitting on the couch contemplating his life, he spills a piping hot bowl of Campbell's Chunky right over his man area.  That's karma right there, friends.  Piping hot karma, right to the groin...    

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings

What is this, like Favre/Rodgers V?  The storyline is played out, for sure.  There's still a good opportunity to make some money here, though.  Green Bay, despite the presence of a decent running game, seem to be rounding into the team a lot of us thought they'd be when the season started, while the Vikings are in a constant state of disarray.  Looks like it could be a trap game betting wise because Minnesota needs it, but I just can't in good conscience not take the Pack here.  So do me proud, Beard.  And send that old perv back to Mississippi once and for all...and Favre is the old perv there, in case you missed it.  Childress looks like a perv, too, but I don't think he's from Mississippi...  

Seattle Seahawks (+11.5) @ New Orleans Saints

Reggie Bush makes his much anticipated return this week for New Orleans, and I guess we'll find out once and for all if he's the missing gear that will get the offensive machine churnin' out points again.  My guess is that he will, but not right away, so I'll take the Seahawks and this one and take the nearly 2 touchdown spread.  Then again, this is the game I told Matt Allen would be the best spot for a potential "big time upset", so you might wanna tread carefully...

Oh and I just had to throw a Kim K pic in there.  I know she doesn't date Reggie anymore, but she's still got one of the best bodies goin'.  I mean, she's freakin' stacked!  And while I'm not trying to watch her reality show(s), I'd much rather see her on TV than those Teds from the Jersey Shore.  I just saw that guy "Snookie" doing an ad for pistachios, and I just don't see the big deal.  I mean, his abs didn't look that great to me at all and I think he actually may have gotten really sketchy pec implants.  He's a lot shorter than I thought, too...

...huh?  You're tellin' me that was a chick?!  WHOA!

Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) vs Cleveland Browns

It seems one of the first coaches to find himself on the hot seat every year is Jack Del Rio.  It also seems that year after year, the former Vikings LB finds a way to turn things around and get his boys right back in the hunt.  This year, the Jags are 4-2 after a 1-2 start, and primed for yet another improbable run to the post season...

Cleveland, on the other hand, has been quite the surprise itself this season.  And to be honest, I'm still not really sure how they're doing it.  That's probably while I'm picking against them.  Matter of fact, now that I think of it, I'm not really sure why I'm picking this game at all.  One team is shadier than the next, and I don't have any strong feelings one way or the other!  Meh, I already did the write up and got the picture, so it's stayin' on the board...

Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys OVER 46

Speaking of shady teams, got a couple in this match up to beat the freakin' band.  And seeing as I haven't been able to decide if last week's win over New York was a sign of things to come in Big D or just the Giants being their skitsofrenic selves, I've just washed my hands of this point spread all together and turned to the game total.  Detroit loves to chuck the rock, Dallas likes the go for big plays.  It's a combination I think could lead to a lot of points.  I still don't love Jason Garrett's chances in Dallas, no matter how many games he wins, but if he can get a streak together that team could become really fun to watch, as opposed to a lot of fun to laugh at...

New York Giants (+3.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles + OVER 48.5

Shadiest LOCK OF THE WEEK of the season?!?  OK that Seattle/Chicago game might have it beat, but nevertheless I bet a lot of you are surprised to see me take this side of this game with such confidence.  Well, I see it as a great opportunity...

I'm as pleased as the next guy that Mikey Vick's has taken his game to the next level, but I'm also just as happy to benefit from people jumping all over his jock.  The Eagles are a much improved team with this Michale Vick at the helm, but that doesn't mean they should be nearly 4 point favorites against the similarly talented G-Men.  Also, as I mentioned above, the Giants are Dr. Jekyll and Mr Ted. this season, and after a stinker last week against Dallas, they're due to bounce back in a big way.  I'm not as keen on the OVER, but I'm taking it anyway.  Ya know, just in case Vick goes off again and decides to cover it himself...

As for the rest of the slate, I hope you like favorites.  Not sure why I picked so many this week, but I'm not gonna question it...

Highlighting this group is the "Fitzpatrick Bowl" as the Bills and Bengals duke it out in the Illest of Natty's.  If you ask me, it says a lot that these two franchises have had a Harvard QB start for them in the last few years. Unfortunately, none of those things it says are wicked smahhht.....

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) vs Buffalo Bills + OVER 42.5

Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) @ Carolina Panthers

Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ St. Louis Rams

New York Jets (-7) vs Houston Texans + OVER 46.5

San Fransisco 49ers (-3) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kansas City Chiefs (-7) vs Arizona Cardinals

Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) vs Oakland Raiders + OVER 37.5

Monday Night

Denver Broncos (+10) @ San Diego Chargers + OVER 48.5

Remember in 2007, when everyone was complaining that the Patriots were blowing people out by too many points?  Remember the swagger his players had because of it?  Well Little McHoodie got a taste of that last week when his Broncos ran up the score, and I think that will have his 3-6 squad playing with a little more confidence come Monday Night.  I know we're used to the Chargers being the team from the West that usually has the big 2nd half's, but if Denver can put together a 2nd straight solid performance, I'd willing to believe that even at 4-6, they might be the team to beat for that division's playoff spot.  At the very least I'll roll the dice with them this week and take them and the 10 points...

Last Week: 9-5-0  (Top Picks: 6-3-0)

Overall: 74-62-4 (.543)

Top Picks: 39-35-3 (.526)

LOCK OF THE WEEK: 7-7-0 (.500)

Let's see.  Cal is playing Stanford this week, so there's a clip of that famous play.  And Nebraska has a big game this week, so there are a few of their scantily clad fans.  Just don't tell tell them that it's football season, or that I picked against the Huskers.  They're so into it, I just don't wanna ruin their enthusiasm...

Speaking of which, watching TCU destroy Utah in Utah a few weeks back, I coined a new expression.  It's a saying meant to capture the adequate disappointment of a fan base that waited in anticipation all week for a big home game, only to show up and get blown out in embarrassing fashion.  I call it, a "4F'er".  And at the risk of being crude, I won't tell you what the 1st F stands for.  I will tell you, however, that whatever that word may be, it's followed in the phrase by the words "in the Face in front of your Friends + Family".  Yeah, so you got it.  "4F'er".  IT's when you've been drinking since 8 am, you have paint all over your face, and your team is down 28-0 in the middle of the 2nd quarter.  That, my friends, is a 4F'er.  And no, I'm not making it 5F'er and including the word "front".  And if you wanna do that, then I'll see you in court, you rat bastard...


NCAA Top 25 Picks
(4) Boise St. (-38.5) vs Fresno St.

Michigan (+5) vs (6) Wisconsin

California (+7) vs (7) Stanford

(8) Ohio St. (-3) @ (21) Iowa

(18) Texas A&M (+2.5) vs (9) Nebraska

(11) Michigan St. (-20) vs Purdue

(22) Mississippi St. (+3) vs (13) Arkansas

(14) Virginia Tech (-2.5) @ (24) Miami

(15) Missouri (-11) @ Iowa St.

(16) Oklahoma (-7.5) @ Baylor

(20) USC (-3) @ Oregon St.

San Diego St. (+3) vs (25) Utah

Last Week: 7-5-0

Overall: 72-51-3 (.583)

Gunga la gunga, my damies.  And have a good weekend...

Teddy Williams...



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