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Friday, October 08, 2010

NFL Week 5 Picks: Great Googly Moogly...


Randy Moss is gone, and life will go on.  But before I get to this week's picks, I'd like to both update and clarify my take on the events that surrounded one of the NFL's all time greatest receivers making a sudden, mid season exit from Foxboro.  Ya know, for the record and whatnot...

I said on Wednesday that while I felt Randy Moss did in essence, 'shoot his way out of town', he only did so because of the special circumstances in regards to the upcoming labor uncertainty.  Well, in wake of both Randy and Bill Belichick's press conferences regarding the trade, I have a tad bit of spin I'd like to add to that...

Let me be clear.  I think the Patriots traded Randy Moss because they felt he could become a problem down the road because of his insecurity regarding his contract.  But what's new to my take is, I think Bill Belichick was actually pro active in getting Randy out of town, and NOT because Randy was an issue in the locker room.  In some sick, twisted form of ultimate respect, I think Bill actually helped get Randy out of town because that's what he felt was fair to Randy...

You heard me right.  I think Bill felt the Pats were screwing Randy, and more or less helped his disgruntled friend get out of town.  Now don't get me wrong, had Randy not shown signs that he may have been difficult going forward, Bill probably would not have been likely to act, but in this particular instance I believe that's exactly what happened.  Bill wanted him here, that's clear, but what's just as clear is that the two men have/had great respect for each other, and seemingly a very positive personal relationship.  That's what's led me to this tweaked version of my interpretation on the matter.  I think Randy more or less made Bill aware, either consciously or not, how insecure he was about his upcoming contract situation, and Bill made a move that he felt wouldn't kill the team, and would at the same time benefit a player which he cares about and holds in very high regard.  Again, Bill always had what was best for the team at the forefront of his mind, but I think he felt he could doing things this way wouldn't greatly diminish the team's ability to succeed.  Whether he's right about that is another story, but I think he felt he had the chance to do a favor for someone he respects, and he took it...

Would those circumstances I outlined make this one of the oddest trades in NFL history?  Sure it would.  But that's more or less par for the course down in Foxboro, isn't it?  Cloaks (or hoods) and daggers, "it is what it is", moves nobody understands.  That's just how they habe made a history of handling their business.  So I just chalk it up to business as usual.  Besides, we're never really gonna know what went down there, anyway.  At least that's what a very wise man has been telling me...

But enough of guessing at things to which we'll never know the answer.  I got some answers for ya, and they come in the form of this week's picks.  I started to turn the tide last week, and as the season heads into the back stretch, I'll try to convince my midget to hold off on the whip by putting together my long awaited "best week of the season".  I haven't given up on my trends (yet), and its around this time that they should start to bear their delicious fruit.  So get some, kids.  And enjoy...

Week 5 Picks


San Diego Chargers (-6) @ Oakland Raiders

Last week the Packers screwed me in a similar situation, but I'm sticking with a good trend and taking the Bolts to win their 14th straight over the division rival Raiders.  You heard me.  They've won 13 in a row.  And by an average of more than 14 points!  Not to say I haven't singlehandedly toppled stronger trends in the past, but if you are going to play the numbers, there's no stronger bet this week than this one.  And I'd make it my LOCK OF THE WEEK, but that would just be jinxing the entire betting community as a whole, and that's just karma I don't need...


New Orleans Saints (-7) @ Arizona Cardinals

The Saints haven't exactly blowing people out like many of us expected, but going up against a porous D and a rookie QB might be just the recipe to get them going.  That's all I got.  But to quote Jimmy Dugan, "That's good advice!"...


Kansas City Chiefs (+8.5) @ Indianapolis Colts + OVER 44.5

Priest Holmes might not be walking through that door, but a rested team with a penchant for the run is.  That should spell trouble for the Colts, but more in the form of a close game than necessarily a loss.  We all know Indy can score, but their less than stellar defense is why I'm taking both the Chiefs and the OVER.  I figure if the Jags can run the game total over 50, then a semi functional offense like the Chiefs should have no trouble doing the same.  Somethin' in the 33-30 neighborhood I'm guessing, with Peyton leading a game winning drive...

Then again, maybe KC makes a pick on that last drive, and they go to 4-0.  Could it happen?  Could the lowly Chiefs become the talk to the town with a stunning 4-0 start?  Sure it could.  And if and when it does, allow me to (as usual) be miles ahead of the curve.  ESPN.com, here's your headline to pair with your picture of the 4-0 Chiefs..."GREAT GOOGLY MOOGLY!"

Yeah, you're welcome...


San Fransisco 49ers (-3.5) vs Philadelphia Eagles

Last week I had the NinersKolb as much as the next guy, but that Philly team is just in a bad head space right now, and I'm not lovin' their chances...


Tennessee Titans (+6.5) @ Dallas Cowboys

Two trends to think about in this one:

The Cowboys haven't lost coming off their bye week since 2004

The Titans have won 10 straight against the NFC, and are 15-1 against the conference in their last 16

I was leaning towards the Titans with the spread, more or less using their shady 29-10 road beat down of the Giants as evidence to support my pick, but I also do like the Cowboys to win coming off their bye.  Lucky for me, I've found an elegant solution.  28-24 Dallas, and everybody wins.  Most of all me...


Green Bay Packers (-2.5) @ Washington Redskins

All the talk in Green Bay this week has been the Packers inability to really open up their passing game.  I mean, it's all relative considering Rodgers has already passed for nearly 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns, but if the folks in 'Sconsin feel they need to turn the offense up a notch, look the Hell out.  I'm not overlooking the fact they're playing in a tough venue against a good opponent, but the fact that Washington's pass D is one of the worst in the league really tips this one in Green Bay's favor.  They may have been able to shut down Desean Jackson last week, but Aaron Rodgers has never had an issue when it comes to spreading the ball around.  And unfortunately for the Skins, he's got weapons to spare...


Chicago Bears (-2.5) @ Carolina Panthers

One man.  JULIUS PEPPERS.

The Panthers weren't good enough for him to want to stay, and they're not good enough to stop him from singlehandedly beating them when he makes his triumphant return.  I don't care if Kerry Collins is the Chicago QB this week, with Peppers on a mission, the Panthers don't stand a chance.  Matter of fact, I'm so confident in his desire to put on show for his former club, that not only am I shadily making the traveling Bears my LOCK OF THE WEEK, but I'm putting most of my net worth on a long shot prop bet that Peppers' somehow finds a way to block the opening kickoff...and then ripping the ball apart with his mouth and spitting half of it toward the Carolina sideline...

Yeah, I like my chances, too...

I NEED this shirt...

Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

First look at this line I really like the Bucs.  Coming off a bye, playing fairly well.  But I'm sticking with another tried and true betting trick here.  "If the line looks weird, one way or another, go with the team that you think is getting too much respect".  985TheSportsHub's, Andy Gresh, once told me that.  And I'll be damned if it hasn't been one of the best tips I've ever been given.  Remember last week, when the Giants were (-4) against the Bears for some inexplicable reason?  Exactly.  This trend works.  I'm not sure why, but it does.  Chalk it up to guys in smoke filled rooms with funny hats knowing more than we do, I guess...

It also doesn't hurt that all the talk in Cincy this week has been that this is a must win for the Bengals going into their bye.  Combined that with the fact their potentially dangerous passing game is finally clicking and they're playing a young Tampa team, and that all the signs seem to point to a big Cincinnati win...


As usual, here are the rest of the games for you to feast on.  Keep an eye on the two games you wouldn't be caught dead watching (you know which 2 they are).  Could be a good opportunity to make some $$ on some shady shootouts...

Buffalo Bills (-1) vs Jacksonville Jaguars + OVER 41

Cleveland Browns (+3) vs Atlanta Falcons

Detroit Lions (-3) vs St. Louis Rams + OVER 41.5

Baltimore Ravens (-7) vs Denver Broncos

Houston Texans (-3) vs New York Giants


Monday Night


New York Jets (-4) vs Minnesota Vikings

Knee jerk reaction was to take Favre + Moss FTW (that's For The Win, for those not up on message board speak), but I've since been able to let logic set in.  The Jets are just the better team right now, and being at home is just the icing on the cake.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Favre hit Moss for at least one score, but unless he can lure the Sanchize into a shootout, I don't like he or the Vikings chances.  Both teams are going to want to focus on running the ball, but I think the Jets are the only ones that will stick to that game plan, allowing them to control the clock and ultimately win the game...

They'll be a ton of hype, but in the end, the Jets will rise above and come away with something in the area of a 10 point win.  20-10, or 23-14.  Yeah, 23-14.  I'm goin' with that...  


Last Week: 8-7-0 (Top Picks: 3-3-0)

Overall: 22-26-0 (.458)

2010 Top Picks: 13-15-1 (.466)

Lock of the Week: 3-3-0


This week's NCAA picks are also about playing a trend.  I know I've said in the past that I use a more straightforward strategy when it comes to picking college games, but this week I'm making an exception.  Actually, it's more I'm testing a trend than anything else, but I figure full disclosure is the way to go, so I might as well give you the heads up...

The trend, is that so far this year (and my record in the past isn't all that much better) whatever side I seem to pick in the Florida St. game, I lose.  The importance of that?  Kevin "Frosco" Tomasso is a Florida St. alum, and an avid fan.  Frosco, for those of you that don't know, is a good friend of mine and a frequent graphical contributor to Rooch Nation.  I took FSU earlier this year to cover against Oklahoma, and they got blown out.  And I took them last week to win by fewer than the 7 they were spotting Virginia, and they blew the Cavs out.  So this week, I was less than suprised that when I let Frosco know that I was taking his 'Noles this week to pull the upset special against long time rival Miami, he hit me with this: "I liked the result last week when you picked against us"...

Well OK, Frosco, we're seeing if this thing has legs.  Not only am I picking your squad in a game they've painstaking lost soooo many times, but I'm putting on the full court jinx with your hot co-eds serving as my headliners for this week's picks.  SO go ahead, karma.  Show me what you got!  And if it's anything close to resembling what Frosco's "classmates" got, then I'm pretty sure I'll be pleased no matter what the outcome.  And hey, if the karma gods can find if somewhere in their hearts to make FSU lose yet again by another wayward field goal in the closing seconds, I will be forever in your debt.  I don't have much money, but trust me, that's not a bad place to be...


NCAA Top 25 Picks
(1) Alabama (-6.5) @ (19) South Carolina

(8) Auburn (-6.5) @ Kentucky

Oregon St. (+7.5) @ (9) Arizona

(10) Utah (-6) @ Iowa St.

(14) Florida (-6.5) vs (12) LSU

(23) Florida St. (+6.5) @ (13) Miami

(16) Stanford (-9.5) vs USC

(18) Michigan (-4.5) vs (17) Michigan St.



Last Week: 5-5-0

Overall: 30-23-2 (.564)


And that's it, friends.  Hope you enjoyed what I brought to table this week, and I wish you all the best of luck this upcoming weekend...

Great googly moogly, kids.  I'm outta here...

Teddy Williams...
Rollo_Soze...
100...

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