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Friday, September 17, 2010

NFL Week 2 Picks: Sometimes, It Takes Two Nations...


Well kids, it happened.  My picks were put on blast over the radio air waves yesterday afternoon, and now it's time for me to prove my worth to the masses.  OK, so maybe the fact my picks were read on the air by a local Providence radio station isn't the exposure I'm ultimately looking for, but it does provide a little added incentive to do well this week.  And while normally I'd be self conscious about the karmic implications that come with directly sharing my advice with a coworker, the namesake of this particular partner in crime has provided me less with a sense of worry, and more with an extra boost of self confidence...

His name, is Matt Allen.  Host of "The Matt Allen Show" weeknights from 6-9 on 630 WPRO & 99.7 FM, but more importantly, creator and leader of the "Matt Allen Nation".  You see the tie in there?  He's got a Nation, and so do I.  Sure his Nation may be more politically aware and definitely more politically correct, but much like yours truly, he heads a group of outside the box thinkers that look to him for guidance and advice.  And as any good leader is want to do, Matt has turned to me in an effort to provide his loyal followers with the best advice when it comes to picking winners for the 2010 football season.  A wise decision by a man with wisdom well beyond his years, and a decision that, as Tom Brady as my witness, will prove for Matt and his legion of followers as a fruitful one...

So here we go.  Two Nations, and one set of picks.  And in the spirit of the Matt Allen Nation, and in an attempt to start this week off on the right foot, allow me to get things started with a popular saying of his.  Or at the very least, one that he was fond enough of to pass on to me.  One that, for today's purposes, will be referring to my picks and my analysis...

"I said it.  I meant it.  And here I stand to represent it".

You're damn straight.  There's nothing more refreshing than accountability.  Now let's get down to business...

Week 2 Picks

New England Patriots (-2.5) vs New York Jets

No better place to start than this one.  Not only is it by far the biggest game of the week, but in keeping with this week's theme, it's also the game I will be producing on Sunday for 630 WPRO & 99.7 FM...

And while it seems that I can't find a single reputable Boston media member that's taking the Pats this week, with or without the 2.5 points, not only am I siding with the homeboys, but I'm making them my Lock of the Week.  I don't buy into the fact that the Jets "can't start 0-2 at home", and since I never bought the fact that the Jets were a Super Bowl contender, that makes this pick all that much more simple...

I respect the Jets defense, I really do, but between the Pats offensive display last week and Mark Sanchez' continued inability to perform like even a decent D1 QB, I think taking the Pats as a field goal favorite on the road is still a pretty solid play.  I worry a little about how the suddenly heralded New England defense might play on the road, with their young DBs potentially blinded by the lights of a big game, but yet again those worries are subdued by the fact I have less confidence in Mark Sanchez than I do in Rex Ryan's ability to turn down a free bear claw.  He's just awful.  So awful in fact, that when I was discussing the match up with my a good friend of mine whose a Jet fan and season ticket holder, he jokingly sent me a text that read "Sanchez didn't throw the ball last week cause he didn't want to give your team any extra film to study".  So I say to you again, if this is what their educated and informed fans think of their QB, what the Hell are we supposed to think of him?  And while "decent" QBs can often win with a great defense, "awful" QBs don't win with any defense.  Especially not against playoff caliber teams.  Home game or not...

I'm not saying the Patriots blow them out, as some of my comments may suggest, but I do look at this match up as one where the final score is a lot closer than the actual game.  Like 17-13 where the Jets get some sort of late 4th quarter touchdown to give them a glimmer of hope...

Oh, and if you expected me to comment on Tom Brady's backhanded compliment to New England's overly "friendly" fans, then you're obviously new here.  I've long been saying that once the ticket prices get to where they are you need to stop calling them "fans", which is short for "fanatics", and start simply referring to them as "consumers".  A sad commentary perhaps, but one that would easily help explain why the Patriot "faithful" rarely ever make noise, and often leave early.  Take notice this weekend, and you'll see what I mean.  That "Fireman Ed" guy may be the biggest Ted around, but at least he's around no matter score.  And as an ardent fan and fan etiquette, I can't help but respect that...    


Green Bay Packers (-12.5) vs Buffalo Bills

When Matt asked me what my most confident pick this week was, this was the game that instantly came to mind.  Granted he's just being asked to pick winners, but even with the monstrous 13 point spread I like the Pack in a big way this weekend when they play host to the Buffalo Bills.  Matter of fact, they're my SURVIVOR pick for the week. Aaron Rodgers (TDs/2 INTS last week) and the Green Bay offense still must feel as though they have something to prove, and without starting RB Ryan Grant, I expect them to come out guns blazing.  That's bad news for Bills fans, but seeing as they haven't heard good news since Jim Kelly was drafted, I'm sure they're just taking it in stride...  


Tennessee Titans (-4.5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers

If both of these teams were completely healthy, and completely in tact, then this would normally be a game I wouldn't want any part of.  But they aren't, so I do, and I'm taking the Titans...

Everyone knows both of these teams can stuff the run and play physical D with the best of 'em, but with Big Ben still servin' time for gettin' his under raged bathroom sex on, the Titans are the only one of the two this week that I can actually see scoring some points.  Matter of fact, this game is much akin to the Patriots/Jets match up, and most of the logic for that one applies here as well.  Only real difference is that Pittsburgh QB, Dennis Dixon, was never supposed to be a starter in the NFL, and the Titans have the advantage of being the home team...

That's right, I just favorably compared Dennis Dixon to Mark Sanchez.  Something you should all get used to, by the way...


Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) @ Detroit Lions

On the eve of the premier of HBO's Boardwalk Empire, a show about Atlantic City at the dawn of prohibition, it's only appropriate that one of the cities largely responsible for funneling traffic to AC is attempting a "noble experiment" of their own.  And while my own personal jury is still out on whether Michael Vick is ready and capable of leading an NFL offense again, there's probably no better proving ground to test that theory than the friendly confines of Ford Field.  The Lions are an improved bunch, but they're still snake bitten.  After losing their franchise QB in week 1, and not to mention the game on a controversial officiating decision, it looks as though Jim Schwartz and friends are in for yet another long and tortuous season.  And I predict it all starts this week with Mikey Vick.  He should make enough highlight reel plays that his boys in the pen are prompted to remove their Lil Kim posters, and toss up one of their boy in Eagle green instead...

Oh and I'm taking bets as to when either some reincarnation of the "dirty bird", or some sort of "drop down and getcha Eagle on" starts becoming the craze in Philly.  We know their standards are low.  We've seen what they deem a good "cheese steak".  So I'm setting the over/under at 3 weeks.  Who wants action?...    


Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys OVER 41

When one team is mistake prone, it usually leads to a lopsided result.  When both teams are mistake prone, I find it best to ignore the point spread, and focus solely on the over/under.  In this match up, with this point total, I feel good about taking the OVER mostly because I just don't see either team attempting to grind this thing out.  They're both going to want to spread it out, and prove not only to their fans, but themselves, that their offenses are as good as they had theorized during the pre season.  That should lead to either a 6-3 finish, or one that puts this 41 point total well in it's rear view mirror.  Obviously, I'm going for the latter, but just be warned that this is probably my riskiest Top Pick of the week.  Truth is, I don't trust either of these teams, coaches, or QBs further than I could throw that Kardudian Brother that's married to Lamar Odom.  But hey, at least "his" hot sister is still slowly leaking nude photos of herself to the press.  So we got that goin' for us, which is ALWAYS nice...  


Indianapolis Colts vs New York Giants OVER 47.5

Now for the Manning Bowl, I could support my pick with facts about how Indy can't stop the run or how they are due for a big game after their opening week loss, but instead I'm choosing to go down a dangerous road and just pick this thing using the "eye test".  More or less just using common sense.  A dangerous practice when it comes to picking games, I know, but in a special situation like a brother on brother match up, I feel this type of triple reverse logic is the right way to go...

As if they were in the backyard, look for the Manning boys to sling that pigskin around and pile up the points as if they were fighting for their parents love...Because they probably are.  Always a solid motivator, if you ask me...


And here's the rest of this week's games.  The Browns hosting a young KC team off a Monday night game is a good one to keep your eye on, and I'm also partial to the Cardinals and Jaguars pulling out back door covers.  Not partial enough to make them one of my Top Picks, but just something to keep in mind for those of you looking for that little extra to help push you over the top...

Cleveland Browns (-1.5) vs Kansas City Chiefs

Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) @ Atlanta Falcons

Denver Broncos (-3.5) vs Seattle Seahawks

Carolina Panthers (-1.5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baltimore Ravens (-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals

Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) vs Miami Dolphins

St. Louis Rams (+4.5) @ Oakland Raiders

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) @ San Diego Chargers

Houston Texans (-2.5) @ Washington Redskins


Monday Night




San Fransisco 49ers (+6.5) vs New Orleans Saints

I've made it a point over the years to never pick against a decent home underdog on Monday Night, and that's the logic I'm employing here.  Matter of fact, it was the Saints post Katrina victory over the heavily favored Falcons in 2005 that helped me form this fruitful strategy.  So that's why, despite their long layoff and the fact I think they're the better team, I picking against the Saints this week and instead opting to put my money on the 49ers to keep this thing close...

Now don't worry, Mr. Allen, I still like the Saints to come out on top in this thing.  It's just that when walking the slippery slope that is picking games against the spread, sometimes you end up walking fine lines and/or hedging your bets.  This may look to be a little bit of both, but in reality I really do think this is going to end up being a 23-20 type game, where one could both by taking the Saints to win and by taking the Niners to cover the 5.5 points...

So it's a win/win situation, really.  At least that's how I've drawn it up in my head...


Last Week: 9-6-3

Top Picks: 4-4-1

Lock of the Week: 2-0-0


While I was able to get my NFL season off on the right foot last week with a 9-6 mark, my selections on the collegiate side of the sport weren't nearly as successful.  Naturally, my goal this week is to right that ship.  Oh, and in case you were wondering, I already apologized to former Rooch Nation editor, current Rooch Nation Webmaster, and overall great guy Kevin "Frosco" Tomasso, for jinxing his Florida St. Seminoles last week.  And seeing as Syracuse sucks, and the rest of my friends went to schools where football was played with flags and chicks, I think it's safe to say I'm in the clear for the rest of the season.  Besides, with fans like those, (above), I don't know what I was thinking picking FSU to beat Oklahoma in the first place.  Stupid Frosco, clouding my judgement with his allegiance and whatnot...

Well no more!  This week's picks are bias free, and will hopefully help you in your attempt to make enough money to pay down your college creditors.  That's called justice right there, friends.  Sports gambling justice...

NCAA Top 25 Picks

(1) Alabama (-23.4) @ Duke

(3) Boise St. (-23.5) vs Wyoming

(4) TCU (-21.5) vs Baylor

(6) Texas (-3) @ Texas Tech

(7) Oklahoma (-17) vs Air Force

(8) Nebraska (-3) @ Washington

(9) Iowa (-1.5) @ (24) Arizona

Tennessee (+14) vs (10) Florida

(11) Wisconsin (-14) vs Arizona St.

(12) Arkansas (+2.5) @ Georgia

(14) Utah (-23) vs New Mexico

(15) LSU (-8) vs Mississippi St.

(16) Auburn (-7) vs Clemson

Minnesota (+12.5) vs (18) USC

(21) West Virginia (-10) vs Maryland

(23) Houston (-3) @ UCLA

(25) Oregon St. (-19.5) vs Louisville


Last Week: 5-6-0

Overall: 8-8-0 (.500)


And there you have it, friends and foes.  Two Nations, one set of picks, and yet another great weekend set to unfold for our viewing pleasure.  I hope you enjoyed your latest visit to this pleasant little piece of Intraweb real estate I lovingly refer to as Rooch Nation, and I wish all of you nothing but the best with your latest attempts at weekend glory...

Be good, friends...


Teddy Williams...
100...


#$>

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