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Friday, September 10, 2010

NFL Week 1 Picks: Rollin' The Dice...


Ready or not, friends.  Here...we...go!!  And for the record, you should have read that with a sense of seriousness and excitement, not the questionably hetero way it was once squealed by the Backstreet Boys.  And before I make any more questionably hetero remarks myself, I'm just gonna go ahead and get right down to business...

Now for those of you not familiar with the legendary Rooch Nation NFL picks, let me give you a quick overview.  Every Friday, when you click whichever magical link you've created to get you here, you'll regularly find the following:

My Top Picks:  These are the picks that will lead off every "picks" segment.  Usually between 4-6 games, these are the match ups I feel most confident about, and in reality, they're the only games I could see myself betting on.  Seeing as I don't bet on individual football games, you can take that to mean those are the only games I think you should be betting on...

Lock of the Week:  Out of all the "Top Picks", this is the one I feel most confident about.  No "lead pipe" and I'm not going to change my name to "Brett Stone", but with a 14-3 record last year, I hardly feel I'm in need of an gimmicks...

My Pick For Every Game:  I understand some people read pieces like this for an opinion on one particular game, so I make sure nobody goes home disappointed.  Even if it's not one of my "Top Picks", I'll make sure you know where I stand on every game that week has to offer.  

And that's pretty much it.  Pretty straightforward, yet if history is any indicator, it will prove to be as useful and effective as it is simplistic.  As always, if you have a differing opinion, or if you think you can do better, I welcome the challenge.  In my experience, most people that actually do bet on these games are hesitant to publish their picks for fear of people discovering how much they lose.  But if someone does want to step up, I'll be more than happy to battle you to the death...

So now, with all that housekeeping out of the way, let's get right to what you all came here to see.  THE PICKS.  It's always a real gamble picking week 1 games, as my increasingly frequent mock motivational poster at the top of the page suggests, but my hope is that I can put you in the right mindset and help get your season off on the right foot.  So enjoy, pimps.  And have at it...

NFL Week 1 Picks


Miami Dolphins (-3) @ Buffalo Bills

I'm usually hesitant to pick teams favored on the road...especially in week 1.  But this week I'm taking 5 such games, including two of them as one of my "Top Picks"...

As is usually the case with week 1 picks, my logic doesn't go much further than the fact that I think the road team is noticeably better.  That's the case with the Dolphins.  I told you in last week's predictions that I like Miami's chances to win the AFC East.  I also told you in that same piece that I like the Bills chances to finish last.  So there ya go.  If you can't follow the logic I'm using, I really don't know what I can do for ya.  And be weary that a lot of this week's picks are gonna be like this because...well...well because we haven't seen any of these teams play, yet.  I know that sounds like a cop out, but picking week 1 games is really a straight up crap shoot for me.  And by that I mean, if you get overzealous, you're bound to step in crap and start your season off on the wrong foot...a foot covered in crap...


San Fransisco 49ers (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks

Same logic applies here.  My predicted divisional winner on the road against my predicted divisional loser.  And I'd pick this as my lock, I really would, if I didn't feel that there's the distinct possibility that Pete Carroll and the 'Hawks are primed to have a great season just to spite me.  I see know reason why they should be good, mind you, but it's just one of those karma things that more often than not seems to jump up and bite me in the ane...

So take the Niners and the points.  And if they lose, you'll know who to blame...


Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 47.5

For the insight on this, you needn't look any further than last night's opening game between the Saints and the Vikings.  Just because teams have great offenses, doesn't mean they're ready to run at full throttle right out of the gate.  That, and both of these teams have above average defenses comparable to last night's match up, too.  Now I'm not picking the UNDER in this instance solely based on last night's mere 23 point total, but I feel it's a good way for me to explain my logic.  Believe me, both of these offenses are going to put up a ton of points when all is said and done.  It's just probably going to take some time for them to get their rhythm.  Matter of fact, I'm so sure of the false start that's likely to occur, that I'm installing this pick as my Lock of the Week.  Sorry if that doesn't help you with your survivor pool, but if you'd been like me and taken the Saints last night you wouldn't even have that problem...


Denver Broncos (+2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Another one of my predicted division winners playing another predicted division losers.  And another road team, to boot.  I also like how quickly the Broncos got out of the gate last year, and I look for them to start the 2010 campaign in the same way...


St. Louis Rams (+4) vs Arizona Cardinals + OVER 38.5

Now here's a quirky combo pick that I have to admit I'm really excited about.  Usually that means the game is destined to finish about the exact opposite of what I've predicted, but I'm not gonna let that diminish my enthusiasm...

I like the fact that these teams have both been largely retooled, creating an unfamiliarity that shouldn't exist between divisional foes.  I also like that both squads really have to feel like they have something to prove, especially on offense.  To me that signals that there should be a lot of points in this game, and seeing as the Rams are home, I have no problem parlaying the OVER with the 4 point home underdog...


Tennessee Titans vs Oakland Raiders UNDER 41.5

These two squads have a lot to prove on offense, too, but they're looking more to run the ball than pass.  They both also figure to have rather stout defenses, so a 17-13 type game seems the most likely outcome.  Seeing as that falls well under the 41.5, you can see why I made this one of my "Top Picks" of the week...




New England Patriots (-4.5) vs Cincinnati Bengals + OVER 44


Finally, for my last pick of the week, here's a selection I'm sure many of you came here to see.  But to keep full discretion in tact, I have to warn you that I'm making both of these picks almost strictly based on karma.  Not only in hopes of the Patriots starting the season off on the right foot, but to combat a sort of personal trend.  Ya see, last time I wasn't able to work the Patriots' regular season opener (which is the case this weekend as I'll be at a good friend's wedding) a certain QB suffered a certain injury that seemingly ended the season before it even began.  Oh, and it's important to note I was at a good friend's wedding that weekend, as well...

Needless to say, when I awoke on Thursday to hear that Tom Brady had been in a car accident, I thought the die had already been cast.  But since Tom Terrific emerged from the fender bender unscathed, it's given me a sort of second lease on life.  So I'm leaving nothing to chance, and throwing all my support about the Patriots and their offense.  It'll either be a shootout, with the Pats having just enough firepower to cover that 4.5 point spread, or it'll be a blowout with the Bengals just scoring enough in garbage time to get a back door cover on the OVER 44.  Either way, I'll be praying for points, and hoping that my team gets their season off on the right foot...even though I don't particularly think they're destined for greatness..

But hey, at least I provided some discretion, right?  You're damn straight I did...

Now as promised, if those games don't tickle your gambling fancy, feel free to take a gander at the rest of my gambling inventory.  From the rest of the NFL games, to the full slate of Top 25 College action, it's all here for both your reading and sports betting pleasure.  So get at it...
 

Detroit Lions (+6.5) @ Chicago Bears

New York Giants (-6.5) vs Carolina Panthers

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) vs Atlanta Falcons

Cleveland Browns (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) @ Houston Texans

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) @ Washington Redskins




Monday Night Football
Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) @ New York Jets

Upon further review, I'm going with a second Lock of the Week pick this week, and it's the Ravens on Monday Night against the J-E-T-S.  Probably just another emotional pick like with the Pats, but I think the Ravens are really good and the Jets are really overrated.  So to be clear, I'd probably still be taking the Ravens if they were -20 and the game was being played in Rex Ryan's back yard, but I also really do think the Ravens are going to win this thing...

Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5) vs San Diego Chargers

I wasn't sure if I'd have the balls to take the Chiefs here, but something tells me I'm going to be glad I did.  Mostly because I like a home team on Monday Night getting 4.5 points, but also due in part to the fact that absolutely NOBODY is even remotely giving the Chiefs a chance in this thing.  Don't get me wrong, I don't think the Chiefs are going to be any good this year, but just the combination of those factors I just mentioned give me confidence that this is the right way to go.  I've been burned too many times by seemingly lowly home teams in early season situations like this, and I think especially since we haven't seen these teams play this year, this is about as safe an upset pick as you'll be able to find...


Last Season
Overall: 115-110-7 (.583)
Top Picks: 78-60-6 (.563)
Lock of the Week: 14-3-0 (.824)

All Time: 440-254-35 (.628)


In this section, we find the guys that get paid slightly less to play football.  Therefore, their football is of a slightly lesser quality.  They quality of the money that you can potentially win, however, remains the same.  So getcha earn on.  You know they're doin' the same...

NCAA Top 25 Picks
(1) Alabama (-12) vs (18) Penn St.

(12) Miami (+9) @ (2) Ohio St.

(7) Oregon (-12) @ Tennessee

(8) Florida (-15.5) vs South Florida

(9) Iowa (-13.5) vs Iowa St.

(17) Florida St. (+7.5) @ (10) Oklahoma

(15) Georgia Tech (-14) @ Kansas

(16) USC (-19.5) vs Virginia

Vanderbilt (+9.5) vs (19) LSU

(24) South Carolina (-3) vs (22) Georgia

UCLA (+6) vs (25) Stanford


Last Week: 3-2-0


There ya go, friends.  Hope I was able to play a small part in getting you ready for the fantastic weekend that's about to unfold, and I'll catch you next week...

"I'm not great at farewells so...uh.  That'll do, pig."


Teddy Williams...
Rollo_Soze...
100...

#$>

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