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Friday, April 30, 2010

May The Horse Be With You...


You know that stock footage you see on the news whenever the go to their particular "Wall Street" segment? It's all those guys shuffling around the floors of the New York Stock Exchange, waiving tickets and screaming random nouns at the top of their lungs. Their lungs, of course, only being given that oxygen by the stereotypical loosened neck tie, which is usually accompanied by what one could only assume is some sort of identification badge...

So yeah, you got the image in your head, right? Well that's essentially the process Sean and I go through every year over the phone when we make our picks for the 3 races encompassing Horse Racing's Triple Crown. The first "jewel" of which being this weekend's, Kentucky Derby. I shout, he shouts, neither of us really hear what the other one says, but in the end, we always somehow manage to walk away feeling really good about our prospects. Hey, it may not be a perfect system, and it may not be a winning system, but it's a system dammit, and that's good enough for me. And they don't win on Wall St., either, and you don't see them switchin' it up. So, yeah...

This is, after all one of the few times each year I actually bet on the outcome of a particular sporting event, so if there weren't at least some drama and tradition involved, it probably wouldn't be nearly as exciting and ultimately nearly as fulfilling. And though I might be known to throw a couple papes around on some other random stuff here and there (but seriously, not nearly as often as you would think), this is truly the only time I ever go in knowing that I'm at a severe disadvantage. It's the only time I say, "Screw it", admit I know absolutely nothing, and just sit back and enjoy the ride...

To me, it's like playing the lottery where you bet small hoping to win big. Only better. With the Derby, instead of watching a local "celebrity" pick numbered balls out of...well, out of whatever the Hell you call that lottery ball thing, you get to see midgets whip horses around a track in front of a bunch of fancy-hatted drunkards (Is that Desiree?!?)It's just good ole clean fun, really. And if you haven't been down in the past, well then consider this your invitation...Invitation, to the Horse Nation. OR the Equine Nation, if you will. Just not whatever nation it was that was having these little children serve as, no racially insensitive remark intended, camel jockeys for their 100+ degree camel racing marathons. But don't worry, they've since been replaced with tiny robots. So it's all good...

But enough of that. IF you're not on board with potentially big payouts, egotistical midgets, fancy hats and even fancier drinks, then I'm afraid I'm just not gonna be able to convince ya. It's along the same lines of a saying my buddy Josh Astin, is fond of using. It's somethin' like "If you don't like drinkin' beers and watchin' Family Guy, then I can tell ya right now that we aren't gonna get along". Well, put sir. And while I won't risk alienating you by saying if you don't like the Derby and the Triple Crown than we can't be friends, I will stop trying to convince you how awesome watching and betting on it is, and get right on down to dishing out the winners...

So, here we go. Sean and I have convened, with stupidity winning in straight sets, and here's what we ultimately came up with. Oh, and I took the liberty of throwing in a few other adventurous wagers you might wanna dabble in along the way as well. Ya know, just to keep things interesting, and to give me an outlet to show you just how sick and twisted I can sometimes be. So keep on the lookout for that...


For now, it's time to sound the horn, midgets! Let's run for the roses!...brought to you by Yum Brands Inc.: From Horses, to Taco Bell, they got ya covered. How refreshing...

Trumpet!


2010 Kentucky Derby Picks

Now naturally, we're utilizing the "bet small win big" strategy, so forgive me if you don't find any simple bets like for a horse to "win" "place" or "show", unless it's on an extreme long shot. You're dealing with true, low budget ($25-$50 total), gambling gangsters, here. We go big (relatively speaking), and then we go home (literally). Oh and you won't find potential payout figures here, either. These things change so frequently that the odds would be obsolete about a minute after I put them down , so it's kind of pointless. What I will do, is give you the odds of each horse in the bet winning the race, giving you at least a glimpse as to what the potential payout could be. Again, we're goin' small to win big here, people. So we'll be pushing the envelope and looking for the upset...

Good luck, and may the horse be with you...


$4 Trifectas
(must hit all 3 in order)

(16) Awesome Act (10/1) - (2) Icebox (12/1) - (20) Sidney's Candy (13/2)

(12) Conveyance (16/1) - (20) Sidney's Candy (13/2) - (4) Super Saver (14/1)

(1) Lookin' At Lucky (4/1) - (4) Super Saver (14/1) - (7) American Lion (22/1)

(2) Icebox (12/1) - (1) Lookin' At Lucky (4/1) - (14) Mission Impazible (16/1)

(1) Lookin' At Lucky (4/1) - (15) Discreetly Mine (45/1) - (2) Icebox (12/1)

*My first instinct was Awesome Act, and I'm stickin' with it. Lookin' for Icebox to have a big day, too. I often fall in love with names that I can "hear geing called down the stretch", and that's what I've done again here. I dunno, figure I'm due...

$4 Superfectas
(must hit all 4 in order)

(2) Icebox (12/1) - (20) Sidney's Candy (13/2) - (11) Devil May Care (12/1) - (4) Super Saver (14/1)

(1) Lookin' At Lucky (4/1) - (15) Discreetly Mine (45/1) - (2) Icebox (12/1) - (16) Awesome Act (10/1)

(16) Awesome Act (10/1) - (2) Icebox (12/1) - (20) Sidney's Candy (13/2) - (15) Discreetly Mine (45/1)

*You might notice that some of the Superfectas and Trifectas overlap. And with good reason. If by some miracle we hit a Superfecta, why not get paid twice off of it, right? That's our logic, and however flawed, it's again a strategy we've chosen to stick with...


$5 Winners
(Horse must win race)


"Good odds"

(2) Icebox (12/1) *because why not at this point

(12) Conveyance (16/1)

(7) American Lion (22/1)

Long shots

(15) Discreetly Mine (45/1)

(19) Homeboykris (45/1)

*Somethin' tells me Discreetly Mine is a descendant of Mine That Bird, so I like my chances there. And how can you pass on a name like Homeboyrkis at 45/1? That's right, you can't. And with so many long shots having won these Triple Crown races of late, you almost have to have some sort of long shot bet to even feel good going in...



$10 Super Prop

UNDER 5 - # of horses NBC's Tom Durkin (above) will announce as race leader (-160)

OVER 1 minute 44 seconds - How long it will take Rascal Flatts to perform the National Anthem (-125)

OVER 153, 563 - Will this year's attendance beat last year's attendance (+150)

NO - Will a horse win the Derby wire to wire? (-1100)

NO - Will the Derby beat last year's Neilsen rating of 9.8? (-215)



Now this Super Prop was supposed to include the odds of any horse or a particular horse being euthanized on the track, but for the life of me I couldn't find a place to bet on that. I can bet on whether Barry freakin' Obama will pick the right winner (unlikely), but I can't bet on something that's happened in very recent memory (Eight Belles, 2008. As if I'd ever let you forget)?



Outrageous, I say. Shame on you, gambling community, and especially you, United Kingdom. Your sport books tend to have the juicer and more slanderous props, and even you couldn't come through for me. Bastards. I still give ya props for giving me 80/1 on that black Pope getting elected, but I'm gonna have to go ahead and mark this one in the loss column. Maybe you give me some good odds on the liklihood Bill Cosby ends up in the next celebrity sex tape scandal and I'll let you back into my good graces. Take off you clothes like voo AND vooooooooom!

Enjoy the Derby, kids, and good luck in your betting adventure. Hope Sean P and I were able to help, despite the fact that we hope we win, and we, in the bottom of our hearts, hope everyone else loses. And one more time, just because the picture of Darth Vader is so damn funny lookin, and because I did make it the title of my post, allow me to wish you one final send off with the hopes of it bringing you Derby success...

May the Horse be with you...

Have a great weekend...

Teddy Williams...
100...

#$>

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