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Friday, December 18, 2009

NFL Week 15 Picks: I'm The Wiz!...



Gotta say, kids. The last week's got your man here feelin' like some sort of wizard. Or at the very least some sort of 3 card Monty operator. And it's not so much that everything I've been touching has been turning to gold, because it hasn't. It's more that I've just been so in tune with the universe of late, that I actually have been controlling all the things that I've always said I was controlling. Not just with my picks, either. Here, lemme lay a few examples on ya...

So I'm walking by the 92 PRO FM studio the other day while I'm at work, and I hear some crappy pop song featuring Diddy whispering at the beginning of it and some chick talkin' about how she likes to party all night and wash her teeth with Jack Daniels. I forget the name of the song, but you guys probably know the one. The chick's voice is all auto tuned out? Well, whatever. Point is, the second I heard it, I immediately predicted, to myself of course, that one of 5-10 chicks I know on Facebook would have a photo album named after a lyric in that song, and that album would feature them and their girlfriends taking shots, making faces at the camera, and sporting captions about how nobody remembers that night and how they couldn't believe how funny some random old guy on the street was...The album was up within 24 hours...

Next, and sticking with Facebook and chicks, was a correspondence with a female friend from college that was just completely broken off. We had been messaging back and forth, and all of a sudden, it just stopped. I sent a message that had some questions in it, and it was never returned. My guess, was that this whole time this girl was hoping something sexual or some type of rekindled relationship, and that now she wasn't answering me, because she had found herself a boyfriend. Bam! Two days after I thought it, it comes across the Facebook wire that she's in a relationship (with her ex that had dumped her a year back), and couldn't be happier. Truly, a shocking development...

Then, there's my fantasy team. I'm in the semifinals for the 3rd straight year (not to mention in the semis of the team I co-manage, as well), but it took a miracle on Monday night to get it done. More to the point, I asked everyone I came in contact with from Sunday night to Monday afternoon to throw good will and karma my way. I needed help to prevent Tim Hightower and Kurt Warner from scoring the 15 points they needed to put my fantasy season on ice. The result? They combined for 5 turnovers, and my 15 point lead actually ended up in a 20 point victory. An embarrassment of riches, yes, but yet another sign that I'm at the very least in some kind of zone...

Want more? How about the fact that I called the John Lackey singing more than 2 weeks ago? And add to that the fact that Theo and the Sox admitted to not knowing John Lackey wanted to come to Boston more than a few days ago OR that they would have the financial means to actually get the deal done. Scary, right? And just to give you the heads up, I'm still waiting for the "hot stove" to cool off a bit before I start judging Theo's off season. I said he needed to get a pitcher and a bat. He's halfway there...

And finally, as sad and sadistic as this might be, I called in college that there was no way Chris Henry was going to live past the age of 30. Hey, I know it's not cool, and I'm not mentioning it to brag or to toss mud on the guys grave, but it does mesh well with the overall theme. His talent will be missed, and by all accounts he was on the right path back to getting his life in order, so that's too bad. But if you had told me 5 years ago that guy would die getting thrown off the bed of a pickup truck while he was fighting with his fiance and baby mama as they were preparing to go engagement ring shopping? Not only would I have believed it, but I would have gone downstairs to Joe the Bookie (or as I coined him, "The Publisher") and asked him what kind of odds he wanted to lay me. Hey, this is the same kid that let me name my own odds when I wanted to bet on that black guy when they were picking the new Pope, so don't for a second doubt that it could have gone down...

So, what do you think? Am I a wizard, or is it just that I'm really in tune with other people's tendencies? I do know that people get pissed when you tell them you know their tendencies, so I think wizardry is probably the way to go. I mean I already know I'm gonna catch heat for those two Facebook remarks, and probably for the Chris Henry thing, too, but what can I do? Not talk about how right I was in all those instances? Yeah, cuz that sounds like me...

What does sound like me, is using that karma, that wizard-like power if you will, to help you, my friends, do well again to pick as many winner's this weekend as possible. Hey, what can I say? Even the almighty, with the ability to read minds and predict the future, has a soft spot for his homies. Not only that, but I'm just so unselfish that I wouldn't be able to live with myself if I didn't' let all of you benefit from this hot run that I've been on...

Yeah, cuz that sounds like me...

Enjoy this week's picks, kids. I have a gut feelin' you're gonna...

Week 15 Picks

Buffalo Bills (+7) vs New England Patriots

What? You were expecting me to pick the Pats? Why? It's not like I take other teams I don't root for when they're winless in true road games, right? Right! I just wanna make it clear that I'm not picking against the Pats because I think Randy Moss has shut it down or because Tom Brady is hurt. I said on Monday that nobody could say Moss "shut it down" unless they watched the game film and watched him on every play. Well, thanks to the TV and the Internet, I did exactly that over the past few days, and determined that while he didn't play all that well, Randy did not "shut it down". Is his less than stellar play a problem for the Pats? You bet your beard it is. It's just not the reason I'm picking the Bills to cover...

No, I'm picking the Bills because simple betting logic tells me I need to. Buffalo has won 2 of their last 3, have been playing well since Ryan Fitzpatrick and Fred Jackson were injected into the lineup, and only lost to the Patriots by 1 @ Foxboro in the first week of the season. Now granted a lot of that stuff kind of contradicts itself as reasoning to pick the Bills to cover, but it mostly just boils down to the Pats...

Hey, I love 'em, but they're inconsistent as Hell, especially on the road. So just like last week, I'm picking them to win, just not to cover. It's been a solid strategy of late, and in this surprisingly key divisional match up, it's definitely the way to go if you're going to be betting...

Pats 24 Bills 20

That, my friends, is what we call some divisional breathing room...


New Orleans Saints (-7.5) vs Dallas Cowboys

I should have known better than to pick the Saints last week against Atlanta. You wouldn't think so, but despite my recent wizardry and my ability to read the human mind, I still can't pick games between NFC South teams at any better than like a 30% clip...

There's only one NFC South team in this one, though, so I feel good taking the Saints. They're the better team, they're at home, and Tony Romo is still awful in December. Plus, I gotta think Drew Brees and friends have a little extra motivation going in seeing as Indy has already captured their 14th straight win. That, and Drew needs to win every game he can to get enough money to have that small, hairy country removed from the side of his face...

Nah, moles aren't funny. One legged hookers are funny, but not facial moles. Unless it's a facial mole on a one legged hooker. But that's not funny either, that's more of a health hazard. It's also what in West Virginia they call a "Pittsnogle Surprise", but if I get into why and how they came up with that name, we could be here all day...


San Diego Chargers (-6.5) vs Cincinnati Bengals

On the flip side of Tony Romo, we have Philly Rivers. While Romo struggles in December, Rivers is still undefeated. Kid's like 15-0 or somethin'. That, and...well...I hate to bring it up for a second time, but there's no way I'm NOT picking a team that just lost a good friend to a tragic accident. Hey, if they're playing at home maybe I take 'em like I did UCONN earlier in the year. But on the road? Nah. Matter of fact, I'm making this one my lock of the week. The Bolts are just too hot right now, and all the vital components are trending in my favor...


Oakland Raiders (+14.5) @ Denver Broncos OVER 37

The betting logic is easy on this one, too. Logic says never pick a team that isn't dominant to win by more than 10 points, especially when that team is playing another team from their own division. I'm also taking the low OVER of 37 in this one, because of another juicy trend passed on to me a few years back by someone who knows these sort of things. That trend? The later it gets in the season, the safer it is to take an OVER in a divisional match up. I don't know why it works, but it works. It's like they know it's the last time they're gonna see each other this season, and they just wanna get that final punch in on the way out the door...

Well that, and the next "great" defense I see in this league this season is gonna be the first, so I'll take the possibility of offense


Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Seattle was a lock to lose last week because they were on the road. This week, they're at home, and seeing as they aren't playing anyone of note, that makes them a lock to win. It's rather simple, really. Even easier than predicting which sugary hip hop jam the ladies of Facebook will pick to theme their albums around. "Would you look at me and my friends?!?! We're so outrageous! That's not how you're supposed to wear a hat, silly! And how awesome are those BIG sunglasses!? They don't fit and they are soooo hilarious!..."

Mix it up, ladies. I'm getting bored...See? That Seahawk chick knows what I'm talkin' about. Now that would make for a great Facebook album. Decent calendar or thong commercial, too. Nice little Northwest Pacific bum that it is...


Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 40

It's a must win for the Steelers, so I don't wanna take the Packers. But it's also Go Time for the Beard and any hopes I have for fantasy glory. So I'm a little torn...

What I decided on, was to pick the OVER 40, mostly due to the fact that I need points from Mr. Rodgers, and I love predicting a lot of points in a game where it's likely going to snow. Everyone always says teams like to run it in the snow, but time and time again the pass is proven more effective. Lineman can't rush, DB's can't react quickly enough. IT turns into big play central. They may not be the prettiest big plays you've ever seen, but they'll be pretty enough once these two pass by 40 like it was a hitchhiker on the road outside of a mental institution. Or a one legged mole-hooker on the....nah, too much...

FEAR THE BEARD!!...just gotta throw that in there for good luck, don't mind me...


Miami Dolphins (+3) @ Tennessee Titans

Ladies and gentleman, allow me to introduce you to next year's chic Super Bowl pick. The Miami Dolphins. Throw a few role playing free agents in there, maybe a solid draft pick or two by the Big Tuna, and people are gonna be gushing. Guaranteed. Both fans and critics alike have already admitted they were wrong about Chad Henne, and how he's blossoming into a fine young QB. And with Ronnie Brown coming back, and Pat White getting another year of Wildcat practice under his belt? Please. I can just call "Dr. Z" from Sports Illustrated and tell him he's gonna pick them right now, if he wants. I mean that guy's just a joke...

As for the game itself, I've been riding the Titans of late to great success, but with Vince Young probably out, I think their good fortune may have just run it's course. 14-10 and 22-22 wins over Jacksonville and New England tell me the Phins will at the very least keep this one close, but I'd be lying if I said I didn't like them to outright win...


Arizona Cardinals (-12) @ Detroit Lions

The final Top Pick of the week brings us the Cardinals and the Lions...just like it says in the heading...

Now we learned last week that the 49ers own Kurt Warner and the Cardinals for some reason. But I'm here to remind you that's totally irrelevant when it comes to this game. Arizona is good. Kurt Warner is good. That defense, is good. They just had a really bad game, against an opponent that for whatever reason seems to have their number...

This week, despite the "short week" trend that's usually a good one, I'm taking the Cards to bounce back in a big way with a win on the road. They're 5-2 on the road this year, and while the 2 losses have come in their last 2 games, that's another ship I expect them to right. They're gearin' up for the playoffs, and the Lions are gearin' up for golf. Or as they call it in Detroit "Throwing Balls Into Flaming Trash Cans". It's really a fun game, once you get the hang of it. They also douse bums in lighter fluid and pay them to run across the "field". That makes things really interesting. Unlike this game, which hopefully won't be interesting at all. Unless of course a Detroit QB decides to blindly run out of the back of the end zone again. I'd be down for seeing' that again...

Now, here are the rest of the picks for your viewing pleasure. I recommend the Browns @ Chiefs...ya know, if you're having trouble throwing up. Those are the only circumstances under which you should be watching that game. That and maybe if you lost a bet to LeBron...or if Rasheed Wallace promised that if you showed up he would play "toss the leg" with you at halftime...

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) vs San Francisco 49ers

New York Jets (-5) vs Atlanta Falcons

Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens OVER 40.5

Cleveland Browns (+2) @ Kansas City Chiefs

Houston Texans (-10.5) @ St. Louis Rams

Carolina Panthers (+9) vs Minnesota Vikings


Monday Night
Washington Redskins (+3.5) vs New York Giants OVER 43.5

51, 63 and 47. Those are the totals for the last 3 Redskin games...

65, 32, 55, 83. Those are the totals of the last 4 Giant games. Combine that with the "divisional trend" I was talking about with the Raiders and Broncos and the Redksins are at home, and there you have the reasoning behind my two picks...

And if Quinton Ganther happened to find the endzone a time or two, that wouldn't be too shabby, either...



Last Week: 10-5-1 (Top Picks: 10-5-1)

Overall: 124-87-5 (.586)

Top Picks: 65-54-4 (.545)

Lock of the Week: 12-3-0 (.800)


So there you have it, kids. I hope my new friend "the coach", likes the good work I've put in this week, but now it's time to call it a day. After all, if I don't go out and have fun, where's the material for all these Facebook album's gonna come from? Right? Am I right?..

Eh, whatever. This is Mr. Wizard, signing off, and letting you know that NO, I didn't touch the kids during the commercial breaks...

Have a good weekend, you crazy bastards, and I'll catch you on the flipman...That's Ted Flipman, in case you were wondering...

Teddy Williams...

100...

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