NFL Week 14 Picks: 'Tis The Season...For Guns?

The man said "May you live in interesting times". Well, they don't get more intersting than this...

Foxboro is falling, the Evil Empire is growing stronger by the day and the young men of the NCAA (hoops and football, of course) are starting to show us their mettle...

What? The fact that there's so much going on surprises you? Didn't I already tell you this was one of the best times of year to be a sports fan? 'Tis the season, man! Like the title says!..

But you're damn straight I told you, and the events of this past week just go straight to my point. Oh, and did you happen to notice I didn't even have to mention the NBA or the NHL in order to whet your proverbial whistle? That speaks to the point that I essentially don't really know any real Celtics or Bruins fans, but that's another column for another day...and one I've already written...and I bring those facts up like every other week...so moving on!

Yeah there's a lot of concern these days in both Red Sox and Patriot Nation, and I'll be the first one to tell you that the fear isn't completely unfounded...

In Boston, while the Sox have added Marco Scutaro and reportedly dumped Mike Lowell (and his contract) for a young catching prospect who Peter Gammons says is leading Winter Ball in "home runs and chicken eaten", most fans are waiting, and more importantly hoping, that the other shoe is about to drop. Their rivals down the road have already added dangerous OF Curtis Granderson via some sort of "Coke" deal, and are on their way to locking up Damon with an extension. Simple math there, is that the defending champions, and clearly the best team in baseball, have obviously gotten better, and don't seem to be done making additions...

So what's next for the Red Sox? Does Theo have a Lawyer Milloy or Richard Seymour

type move up his sleeve? One that'll shock and surprise both fans and players? IS he really content with this season being more of a transitional year, like so many rumblings have suggested? Could Theo really be interested in acquiring injury plagued, Adrian Beltre, in order to give Drew some company on the bench, and to continue proving his The-'O'-sis that RBI's are meaningless? I don't know. I don't have the answers. After all, I don't break news here, I just analyze it, and make the occasional prediction or two...and off color jokes. I love off color jokes. And Reeses' peanut butter...But no time for that now!

So what does my gut tell me? I say we're at a crossroads here for Theo Epstein as GM of the Red Sox. I feel in my heart of hearts that he's got that big move brewing, but should he not pull off enough magic to keep fans at ease, there could be trouble. Epstein's defense of JD Drew this off season, and his proclivity for overpaid "Moneyballers" have got fans uneasy, and should he put together a team that he needs to defend week in and week out starting in Spring Training, things could get ugly and fast. And we're not talking pre school finger painting ugly here, kids, we're talking marriage counseling at the Woods' residence ugly. I get the distinct feeling that this won't be the case, and that Theo has essentially set up cynics and critics alike with what he's said and done over the past few months. I expect the Sox to bring in 2 big players before all is said and done, whether via trade or free agency, and I wouldn't be shocked if one of those players isn't Jason Bay...

As for the how and the when? Well that's what makes this time of year so interesting. Like I said, I don't claim to have those answers, but believe me, I'll be the first one here to examine the fall out...

Now, about those Patriots...See that? That's what we in the business call, a "segue". We have other insider terms we use, as well. But if I told you those, I'd have to kill you. I have neither the time, nor the means, to make that happen...Although on second thought, my dad does have a lot guns...

Week 14 Picks

Carolina Panthers (+13.5) @ New England Patriots

Things haven't been this strange in Foxboro since Frosco told Adam Vinatieri that the lot was full at Luciano's, and that he wouldn't be able to park his truck...

Players are getting sent home from practice for being late, and then speaking out about it in the media? That's no good. Well, I guess Adalius Thomas' "I'm not George Jetson" line, in regards to not being able to fly over snow and traffic, was pretty funny...

What's more disturbing, though, is obviously the lackluster play that's been displayed on the field week in and week out. That's why I'm taking the Panthers and the points this week. The way I see it, there are two possible outcomes here. Either the Patriots blow the Panthers out, or they don't. It sounds basic and borderline retarded on my part to make such a prediction, but when it comes to dealing with expectations, it makes all the sense in the world. If they do cover the spread and win convincingly, there could still be a chance for them to be "the Pats", the Patriots of the past 5 years. But if they don't cover the nearly 2 touchdown spread, or should they actually lose this game? Well then you can pretty much end any Super Bowl talk right then and there...

Listen, I'm taking the Panthers this week because A) that's a lot of points and B) I'm a savvy bettor. I hope the Pats right the ship as much as the next guy, but the way they've been playing lately, I'm gonna need to see it before I start believing it...

And if they don't right the ship? Well if you thought a disagreeable Theo might be a lot to handle, imagine Bill B. Hoodsworth on the warpath amidst a locker room full of disgruntled veterans. As Brian Cox said so eloquently in JFK while celebrating the former President's assassination, "Here's to Camelot in smithereens". Yeah, it'll be something like that. And believe me, much like when the Yankees lose to a small market team, the Pats will quickly become the villain of choice to make fun of in professional sports. The angry, disrespectful, know-it-all coach, the cover boy QB? Yeah, I'd say that opposing fans and media might take just a little joy in kicking them while they're down, wouldn't you?...

In case you do lose, New England Patriots, Tiger Woods would like to thank you in advance. You're 9/11 to his Gary Condit, and anything to get him off the front page would be greatly appreciated...

To cover my ass, I'll take the Pats 27-14. I cover by 1/2 point, yet still leave the window open for them to be somewhat of a title contender moving forward. Right on the fence, baby. If it weren't for all the splinters, it wouldn't be a bad place to live. Maybe a step up from my parents' basement, at least. There are crickets down here that would choke a small elephant. Very disturbing...

Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts OVER 44

To catch you up on this week's theme, I'm taking all the games as my Top Picks again. Half to continue to chase and make up for my lackluster record, and half because...Hell...because I can and because I want to! IT's my Nation, dammit, and I can do whatever I want!...

In this matchup, I'm banking on the fact that Denver's D won't be as effective on the road as they have been at home, and both offenses will simply show up. Indy's defense is probably what will keep them from winning it all this year, and it's what I'm counting on this week to help me carry the OVER...

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Minnesota Vikings

I wouldn't have believed it a year ago, myself, but the Bengals are one of the best team's in the NFL at controlling the tempo of a game. Props to Marvin Lewis and the

players for turning that thing around, and the fact that they've gone 6-0 in their division and are pointed straight for the playoffs is truly a marvel of modern science...or maybe modern medicine...

In Minnesota, I've been waiting all year for the Brett Favre train to come off the tracks, and it seems that finally might be starting to happen. Between the speeding tickets and Favre's penchant for crucial picks, things in the Twin Cities aren't as rosy as they were a few weeks back, and it's starting to show...

In this one, Cincy serves notice that they're too legit to quit, whether they walk away the W or not. Whether it's a grind it out run-fest or an aerial shootout, the Bengals will keep this one close enough as to where they should have a shot to take it down as the final seconds tick away...

Buffalo Bills (-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs

I've been riding the Chiefs as home underdogs all year to some moderate success, but picking against them worked for me last week so I'm gonna stick with it. They can't stop the run to save their lives whether at home or on the road, and with the way Buffalo has been running it of late with both Jackson and Lynch, that could serve as a problem. That, and I'm takin' the Ivy League QB every day and twice on Sunday. Nah, just kidding. I'm only gonna take them once...

Solid pick, right there, but taking the Bills as a 1 point road favorite as my lock of the week is something that perhaps even I am too bold to attempt...

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Chicago Bears

Another thing that makes this time of year so great is the start of the fantasy football playoffs. If you're in the playoffs, congratulations. If you're in the playoffs in a league where less than 50% of the league actually makes it that far, then even more kudos are headed your way. Not only does it mean you're deserving of a playoff spot, but it means your Commissioner knows what he's doing, and should be acknowledged...

Personally, I'm co-managing a team that's 4th in a league where 8 of 14 make it, and 4th in my own league, where the more traditional 6 of 14 have moved on. I've always figured luck plays a large enough roll in fantasy football, anyway, why extend it to where you're giving some 6-7 team a chance to benefit from being at their computer at the right time when a star RB or QB ripped up their ACL during week 13. That's just not how I roll, and should you wish to someday form a legitimate fantasy football league of your own, I'd advise you not to roll in that fashion either...

But to the point, as yes, I do happen to have one. And the points is, that seeing as Aaron Rodgers is on both of my fantasy teams, my pick in this game is not to be trusted. Between both "Thanks Ted" and "Sobe's Ass Taste" (the two team names...don't ask) I have 5 Packers in action, 2 of them being the aforementioned Mr. Rodgers. For me, or my friend Derek, to have any chance of advancing, Rodgers and friends will have to come through and come through big time against the reeling Chicago Bears. And while that stache is more akin to an avid kid toucher than a fantasy stud, I'm hoping the beard we see in the cold @ Chicago on Sunday will provide more than enough warmth for both of us to move on to the secodn round...

So while I do think Green Bay is the better team, and I love how their defense is clicking right now, I just wanted to give you that little disclaimer. Let you know where my heads at...

Hey, I'm nothing if not brutally honest, so don't say I didn't warn ya...

FEAR THE BEARD!!!

Detroit Lions (+14.5) @ Baltimore Ravens

As was evidenced by my taking of the Browns and the points last night, I'm never one to go against a good trend, even if I wasn't the one to discover it. In that case, it was never taking the '09 Steelers as a double digit favorite, and in this case, it's never betting on a team that played the previous Monday Night, no matter how tasty the matchup. And you'll notice I tweeted that Browns pick by the way, so I'm counting it towards my overall record. Tweeting has become much more fun and much more useful now that I have a Droid. If you have a phone that even comes close to the pimpness of mine, I recommend you utilize it as well. When it comes to breaking news, nothing's faster...

In regards to the game itself, I don't have an opinion as to whether Detroit will be in it all game long, or if they'll sneak the cover in the backdoor, but that's pretty irrelevant when you're just playing a trend. So take the Lions. I know it's not gonna feel good when you do, but it didn't feel so hot when you took the Redskins last week either, did it? And how'd that work out for ya?...

...Yeah, YOU'RE WELCOME!


Miami Dolphins (+3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

I've been saying all year long that based on record, the Jags were the biggest fraud in the league. This week, I think those chickens are gonna finally come home to roost. In probably one of the cozier home games the NFL slate has to offer, the Phins won't even have to leave the state for this one. Granted it's still like 10 hours from Miami to J'Ville, but that "location" talk was just more or less me trying to think of another reason other than the "the Jaguars are frauds" to convince you that I know what I'm talking about...

Then again, Jacksonville is a dead town, so how much homefield advantage could they really have over a fellow Floridian team anyway?...

New York Jets (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Josh Freeman excels at throwing interceptions (5 last week), and if there's one thing this Jet defense can do, it's pick off the bean and defend the pass. I see a pick 6 for Revis in this one, and a big day for Thomas Jones as Kellen Clemens is kept on training wheels...

New Orleans Saints (-10) @ Atlanta Falcons

Here we go, kids. It's Lock of the Week time. The Falcons are still too banged up, and when Drew Brees came out and said the Saints still really wanted to win them all, that sealed it for me right then and there...

Much like the Patriots of '07, the Saints are only going to lose to themselves, or to an inspiring performance like that of the Super Bowl champion Giants. They had a near loss last week against the Redskins, and this week they'll bounce back nicely on the road with one of those "Don't worry, we are who you thought we were" wins that'll make Mercury Morris spin over in his grave...Wait, you're tellin' me he's still alive? Well ain't that somethin'...Ya know my dad does have a lot of guns...

Houston Texans (-6) vs Seattle Seahawks

Seattle sucks on the road & the other Jim Mora is the only man on the planet that hasn't realized Justin Forsett is far superior to Julius Jones. NEXT!..

Tennessee Titans (-13) vs St. Louis Rams

Oooo forgot about this one in all my Saints gushing a few graphs back. You can go ahead and mark this down as lock #2, ladies and gents. It's a lot of points, I know, but between Chris Johnson emerging as the game's best runner, Vince young no longer wanting to take his own life, and the Rams being the Rams, I feel pretty safe taking Tennessee to cover this one in impressive fashion. Despite the fact that such a romp, and such a typical Chris Johnson performance will probably doom Thanks Ted. Oh well, guess it kinda turns into a win-win, then. If Johnson and the Titans crush, then I'll be right about my pick. If they don't, then there probably a good chance I'm movin' on to round #2...Yeah!

Washington Redskins @ Oakland Raiders OVER 38

Seems bizarre, but take a look at the numbers yourself and you'll see where I'm goin' with this one. Oakland gives up a lot of points, and with Gradkowski and Fargas providing some stability, they're actually scoring some too. Combine that with Washington's recent offense outburst, and you can see why I think taking the over in this game might be the best bet...


San Diego Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys UNDER 48

This game's gonna end 10-3, I just know it. Or 17-6 San Diego...

Hey, maybe it's just that it's December, and these two teams still are who they are, like I told Cyrus last week...

Still don't trust either of these teams farther than I can throw Wade Phillips 3rd chin. Ya know, the one that catches the spittle and fried Baby Ruth crumbs before they head onto chin #4. I like the Chargers to win, but either way I like this one being one sided. If that's the case, you always gotta take the UNDER...

It's funny too, becaues I had the OVER originally, only because it makes sense. Then I thought, these two teams? Playing in a normal game? Yeah, that's got a high probability of happening. Norv Turner and Wade Chinsworth? This one's gonan be fun, kids. one way or another, this game ends up being one of the best of the weekend. Maybe a fight between Philly Rivers and DaMarcus Ware. That would be nice. And then LT could cry, because that's what he does. And Merriman can do his little dance on the star before he gets literally eaten alive on midfield by Marion Barber. Yeah, that would be cool...

New York Giants (+1.5) vs Philadelpiha Eagles

It's gettin' towards the end here, Teds, and to be honest I'm runnin' out of steam. This 'pick every game' thing is a lot better as an idea than it is as a task, let me tell you...

So let's just say that I'm picking against the Eagles in this one mainly because I hate the Eagles, the city of Philadelphia, and all the crap that city holds holy. Granted whenever I pick against the Eagles out of spite it seems to backfire, but I can't seem to ever figure this team out so I guess what's the freakin' difference...

What? Philly sucks...

Monday Night
Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) @ San Fransisco 49ers

I've had success with the Niners at home this year, too, but between Arizona's road success in '09 and their play last Sunday night against the Vikes, they're just too good to pass up. I look for their defense to slow Frank Gore enough to make Alex Smith beat them, and their secondary and d-line to make enough big plays to make sure that doesn't happen either. Somethin' tells me a certain hyphenated player will be taking one to the house, too...


Last Week: 8-9-0 (Top Picks: 8-9-0)

Overall: 114-82-4 (.580)

Top Picks: 55-49-3 (.528)

Lock of the Week: 11-2-0 (.846)



So there you have it. Another week in the books. And while I didn't talk about Tiger Woods (really ESPN? The story of the decade? What the fuck is that about?), and make jokes about his potential "12 Whores of Woods-mas", I hope you were still thoroughly entertained. Well, as entertained as one could be when reading the ramblings of a madman...

There will be a non-picks related piece headed your way sometime next week that you're gonna wanna keep an eye out for, subject TBD. But until then, you're just gonna have to figure out a way to enjoy your weekend and get on with your life until I again decide to interrupt with my pearls of wisdom and layers of wit...Oh and I'll be back with my Bowl picks and we're only a few weeks away from the year's first Rooch Nation Collge Hoops Top 25. Ya know, to tie together my opening remarks and give your added incentive to come back and visit the next time you're cruisin along the ole information superhighway...

Have a great weekend, friends...

Teddy Williams...
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