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Saturday, December 05, 2009

NFL Week 13 Picks: Hot Dog!


Greetings, loyal minions! Sick of all the Tiger talk, yet? Huh? Are ya? Well I know I am. And if you're anything like me, not only is the topic losing freshness faster than a gas station hot dog, but the fact that you're hearing "legitimate" news outlets now confidently citing "Perez Hilton", "Bubba the Love Spongue" and former Spitzer skank, Ashley Dupre as "insiders" and "authorities" on the matter, is making you feel like you're about to hurl up...well...something that probably will end up looking like a gas station hot dog...or at the very least like one of those 3 week old Mexican Egg Rolls, that they have the balls to try and tell you are for breakfast. Yeah, I'll have that after I scarf down my steak and doughnut sandwich. And of course I want cigarettes on that sandwich! What do i look like, a Mary?!?

So, as the over/under on Tiger's side action heads towards that of a Boise St./Hawaii game, I'll dip into my bag of "tricks" to help provide you with an adequate distraction...

Last week, I decided to abandoned my "Top Picks" in the interest of time and in order to hopefully gain some positive karma. Anyone that regularly follows along here at the Nation (and thanks to all the well wishes over the holidays I know there are a lot of you) knows that it's been a battle all season long to get my Top Picks to beat my "other picks". You would also know, if you follow me here, or on Facebook, or on Twitter, or on my Droid somehow using super-Droid Al Gore GPS/LoJack software, that like any true crazed and neurotic sports prognosticator, I believe that me picking a game, or in some cases NOT picking a game, somehow affects that games outcome. Sounds crazy, I know, but that's why I document it all right here. Like the true American Gangster that I am, I need all the witnesses I can get...

Either way, you'll get none of that this time around because this week I'm goin' all Top Picks. Got a couple of quirky "2-fers" that I'm still not so sure how I feel about, but my reasoning behind them is still good, so their shady packaging shouldn't discourage you. Remember, I'm the only person you know that can actually prove that they pick winners on a weekly basis, so to question me or my methods is to question the laws of nature. Nah, just kidding. I know I'm not infallible. But hey, I'm way cooler than that Ted, Bill Simmons. So I got that goin' for me, which is always a good thing...

Now go on, you crazy bastards. Enjoy the picks, and have a great weekend...

Week 13 Picks



New England Patriots (-4) @ Miami Dolphins

It's a prime bounce back game for the Pats, but in an unfriendly environment, and against a team on the brink. So which school of thought should I choose? Take the team on the brink, the team in a "must win" situation at home? Or just take the flat out better squad, despite their poor history in that particular city and their recent struggles? A little anti-climactic, I suppose, since you can already see that I've taken the Pats and the points, but that is the reason I'm taking the Pats in this one. Their better, their in dire need of a win, and even though they tend to struggle in the South Florida heat and Miami's backs are against the wall, the Phins are too dinged up to pull this one out. Not to say it won't be close like every other divisional game, but I'll take the 4 points, and feel rather comfortable...

Final score Pats 23 Phins 13...

Everyone likes to talk about the defense, but if the offense doesn't show up in this one, they'll be the unit worth worrying about as the Pats head towards the playoffs...


Denver Broncos (-5.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs
San Fransisco 49ers (-1) @ Seattle Seahawks

The first of the "2-fers", this combo pack features a pair of teams I'd normally take when their getting points at home in the Seahawks and the Chiefs. Both have served me well this year serving as home dogs, but I'm bucking the trend thanks to two less than stellar matchups...

In KC, the Chiefs run into a Denver team that seems to have found it's stride again, so I'm going with the resurgent Broncos...

And in Seattle, I look for the Niners new spread offense to really give the Seattle defense fits. Alex Smith and friends have really been in a groove the past few weeks since they begged Mike Singletary to open up the offense, and I expect that success to continue. And hey, even it it doesn't, Frank Gore gashed the Hawks for 200+ in their first meeting, so even if Smith should buckle under the pressure of all that noise made by Seattle's legendary "12th man", the San Fran running attack should have no problem controlling the ball, and ultimately controlling the scoreboard...


Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) vs Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans (+7) @ Indianapolis Colts

The next two pack, brings us to the AFC South...

In Jacksonville, it's your typical "home team with their back against the wall" pick as I'm taking to the (6-5) Jaguars to bounce back nicely after last week's loss to San Fran by putting the final nail in the Texans playoff coffin. Essentially, both these teams "need" this game, but I'm taking the healthier Jags, with Jack del Rio, over the reeling, but more talented Texans, and their mistake prone head man, Gary Kubiak...

In Indy, I like the Colts' to win another comeback classic as they pen a regular season for the history books, but it'll be close, and the Titans are too hot to spot 7 right now...



Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants UNDER 46.5
Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 42

The Bengals control the clock on both sides of the ball and have bee na great bet for UNDERs all year. Against the lowly Lions, it should be no different than when they went UNDER an even stingier 39 against the Browns...

In the Tedowlands, I see two sketchy teams playing in a hard fought game full of turnovers and missed opportunities. Red zone mistakes, drops, missed kicks and fumbles should keep this one UNDER, even though the pace of the action will seem to suggest the OVER...


Pittsburgh Steelers (-15) vs Oakland Raiders
Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) @ Atlanta Falcons

Another Keystone State twosome, and here's to hoping it works out better than last time. I don't remember the matchups off hand, but I do remember saying I know I shouldn't be giving Pennsylvania any love and that I knew it would come back to bite me in the ass...

Well, what can I say? I'm apparently a glutton for punishment. That, and these matchups are just too juicy for a logical man like myself to resist...

The bipolar Eagles, sans Desean Jackson, head to Atlanta to face a Falcon team with injury issues of their own, finding themselves down Michael Turner and Matty Ryan. That's enough to tilt the scales in my eyes, and barring the team bus being blown up in some sort of Michael Vick protest, I like Philly to win this one going away...

In Shattsburgh, the return of Big Ben and the need to right the ship are reasons enough to take the Steelers and lay that monstrous 15 points. (3-8) Oakland should play like it on the road this week, as they really have nothing to play for, and their minds will probably be more focused on Christmas lists than audibles and checkdowns...


Washington Redskins (+10.5) vs New Orleans Saints

Shock of the week? Eh, probably not likely. But a short week and a shady line are enough for me to take the Skins. Before I saw the spread, I pegged it for 14, and decided if it were around there, then I'd be taking the Redskins. When I saw it was 10.5, for whatever reason it only helped vindicate my original upset thoughts, and encouraged me to take the Skins even more. I mean, does it make sense that a team that just beat the Patriots by 21 is only favored over the (3-8) Redskins by 11? I know it's a short week and the Saints are on the road, but still...

But hey, if you're feelin' ballsy, and you smell a rat like I do, then come out on the limb with me. And trust me, chicks dig dudes that pick double digit dogs to cover...


San Diego Chargers (-14) @ Cleveland Browns

Chicks also dig powder blue uniforms, which is why I'm taking the Chargers. Not only that, but I'm making them my Lock of the Week. As I warned my good friend, SoCAL-er and recent NFL and Charger convert, Cyrus Mor, San Diego is due for their scheduled implosion, but those epic collapses are usually reserved for the opening round of the playoffs. This week, we should be safe...

But lemme say it right now. If I look up at that box score early in the 1st and see 7-0 Cleveland, I'm blaming Cyrus, I'm cursing Cleveland, and I'm hunting down and killing Norv Turner. Maybe I'll suffocate him by blocking his air way with Mexican Egg Rolls, who knows. Depends on if they come back to cover or not...


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) @ Carolina Panthers

The Panthers might "need" this one, and they might get it, but I like Tampa's chances of at least keeping it close. They haven't lost by more than 3 in the Josh Freeman era outside of the blowout loss to the Saints, and against a wounded Panther squad starting backup Matt Moore and possibly without DeAngelo Williams (fuck!), they should be able to keep this one close as well...

Then again, it is the NFC South. And my track record there is about as good as...well...about as good as these next two teams...


St. Louis Rams @ Chicago Bears OVER 41

A shady pick, for a shady game. Think "Cleveland v Detroit" earlier in the season. Kyle Boller? Jay Cutler? Talk about gas station hot dogs! These 2 former 1sy round picks will look worth the investment this week, as two porous defenses should give them plenty of opportunity to shine. Both teams should be able to run the ball effectively, and what their passing offenses don't do in terms of scoring, I'm sure the defenses will more than make up for. A lot like the Dallas/New york game, this one's gonna be sloppy. It's just that in this one, the lack of defensive skill should lead to more of those opportunities resulting in 6...

(Disclaimer: This game could easily end 6-4, and make you want to cut yourself. And how the Browns aren't somehow involved in this game remains a mystery...)



Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) @ Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are worse at home than they are on the road in '09, and a "speedy" Adrian Peterson and the Vikes should keep that trend going...Yea? you see what I did there? Tying in current events with clever puns and whatnot? Yeah...Slicker than grease this guy right here...


Monday Night
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers OVER 43.5

Brett Favre created many lasting memories on the Frozen Tundra, and this Monday, with snow in the forecast, I expect my man, Aaron Rodgers, to create a lasting Packer memory of his own. My only issue here, is if Charles Woodson can take Derrick Mason out of the game, Joe Flacco and the Baltimore offense might be screwed. Failing that, the Ravens running game, led by Ray Rice, should be able to provide enough pop in combination with a big game from Rodgers, to push this game north of the required 43 points. I'm also a little scared that "the Beard" is heading into Monday Night Football not having thrown a pick in so long, seeing as they'll probably mention it 55 million times leading up to and during the game, but I'll stay positive and feel confident that he'll come up large on the big stage...

Prime time games often favor the over, at least that's what I've convinced myself, and I don't figure this must-see match up will be any different. Especially in the "pass friendly" snow...

Before we move on to the college picks, take time to admire my nearly-stellar record. Check out that Lock of the Week, huh? That's just sexy right there. Like that cougar (or "malfer", if you're so inclined) that was undressing me with her eyes the other day. But listen to me, you don't wanna hear about that. Who am I, Tiger Woods?


Last Week: 10-6-0 (Top Picks: 0-0-0)

Overall: 106-73-4 (.590)

Top Picks: 47-40-3 (.539)

Lock of the Week: 10-2-0 (.833)


I've had a great year picking college games, and this week I look to close out the regular season in style. I like Bama and Georgia Tech to cover in their respective title games, which kick off in just a few hours, and I like East Carolina to hang with Houston, and Boise St. to go "Old Yeller" on Ron Mexico St...

Catch that pun, did ya? I sure hope so...

Now as the flashlight app on my Droid says when it gives me the option to go to "strobe" mode. Let's Get Some! And Party On!...

NCAA Top 25 Picks
(2) Alabama (+5.5) vs Florida (SEC Championship: Atlanta, GA)

(3) Texas (-14.5) @ (21) Nebraska (Big XII Championship: Dallas, TX)

(5) Cincinnati (-1) @ (14) Pittsburgh

(6) Boise St. (-47.5) vs New Mexico St.

(12) Georgia Tech (-1) vs (25) Clemson (ACC Championship: Tampa, FL)

East Carolina (+3) vs (18) Houston

(19) California (-7) @ Washington

(20) USC (-7) vs Arizona

(24) West Virginia (-1.5) @ Rutgers



Last Week: 12-4-1

Overall: 129-79-5 (.617)


So there you have it, boys and girls. Another week in the books, and this one came complete with all the classic trimmings of a white trash Birfmas party. Now if you don't mind, I have to get back to producing radio shows before I get fired and lose my only steady stream of income. After all, I'm gonna need a lot of money if my new website venture is going to get off the ground...

Stay tuned for news on that, discussion about the Marco Scutaro scrutiny, my first comments on this year's coillege hoops season, and more of the irreverent and informative style that you've come to love and crave. Ya know, kind of like a gas station hot dog...

Have a great weekend, kids. And in the word's of the mentally retarded rooster, "Goodnight everybody!"...

Teddy Williams...
100...

1 comments:

LDUTheCoach said...

I agree with a lot of your picks this week, very similar to mine, but one things I disagree with is pittsburgh covering..

I know they are playing the raiders but as big favourites this year they havent been able too

-11.5 Lions.. won by 8
-13.5 Browns.. won by 13
-7.0 Bengals.. lost straight up
-11.5 Chiefs.. lost straight up

yep... they cant cover big spread... love the rest of the picks though just had to voice my opinion on that one lol

feel free to look at mine @
http://www.lionsdenu.com/category/sports/nfl-guide-2009-2010/

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