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Friday, November 06, 2009

NFL Week 9 Picks: A Prelude to The Truman Show



The subconscious is a tough nut to crack, lemme tell ya...

I mean, I'm sitting here, in the wake of the worst Trojan Horse style military ambush in memory, and for whatever reason I feel it's a good time to sit down and watch Capote, starring Philip Seymour Hoffman. I hear about senseless killings in the news, and without seeking it out, I end up watching a movie about what else, but senseless killings in the news...

For those not familiar, Capote, starring Philip Seymour Hoffman, Chris Cooper and Catherine Keener, is the story of American author Truman Capote and his experience in writing arguably his greatest work, In Cold Blood, the story of a Kansas family that was murdered in their own home for no discernable reason. If you haven't seen the film, or read the book for that matter, I suggest you seek it out and give it a good once over. I tend to label darker movies like this as ones that "only me and my nerdy movie friends would like", but I still can't deny from suggesting it to you in the hopes that I could bring you over to my dark side of delicious cinema. It's brilliantly filmed, and masterfully acted, and while it doesn't come all that close to cracking my top 20, I would definitely label it as a "must see"...

But enough about my film crush on the PS Hoff-ernator. That's what I call my man Philly Seymour Hoffman. And sometimes I call him Big Philly Styles. But that's another post for another day. What I'm trying to focus in on, is just the bizarre nature of the subconscious. Could it have been coincidence that I put Capote on? Sure, I'd buy that. I mean I do really like it and I hadn't seen it in a while. But what I know about how the brain works tells me there's probably at the very least a little subconscious action involved here...

And it's in thinking about that, that I started thinking about the world of sports. Shocking, I know. But I go to thinking about the Red Sox, their fans, of which I still consider myself one of the highest order. The World Series, and the Yankees getting their 27th title. I got to thinking about my picks for this week, trying to figure out how I was going to triple guess myself into mediocrity. And it got me to thinking about the age old question of "Do we do things because we want to do them, or do we do them because we feel we're going to be pleased with the result". That goes for both conscious and sub or unconscious thoughts...

It's a good question, if you think about it. And one that, Lord knows, even my finely tuned cranial instrument would have trouble answering. But rest assured, I'm gonna try. Not right now, mind you, be on the look out for that post early next week. It'll be a complete breakdown of the psyche involved in the Red Sox/Yankee rivalry (not really, but it'll be good), and a look at how those teams and their fans view things so differently, that they might as well not even be watching the same sport. A lot of you are gonna hate me for some of the things I have to say, but that hasn't stopped me before and I don't plan on having it stop me now. It's just that I'm choosing to wait to write about it until the weekend's over do I don't discourage any of my many fans from buying me a complimentary cocktail over the next few days...

I told you I was going to start posting based more on inspiration, and that's what you're about to get, so stay tuned...

For now, it's time for me to battle my own subconscious and triple guess myself into mediocrity. So enjoy...

Week 9 Picks

New England Patriots (-10) vs Miami Dolphins

I sat in the Meadowlands last weekend, flanked my my good friend and free ticket supplier, Jared Hutter, and watched the Jets control the ball all game only to let 3 big plays lead to their demise. Without those plays, the two Ted Ginn Jr. kickoff returns and the Jason Taylor fumble return for a touchdown, the Dolphins not only lose that game, but they lose it convincingly. And I know, I know, you can't just dismiss those big plays, but you can dismiss the fact that against the fundamentally sound Patriots, those situations will be few and far between. No matter what Joey Porter might think...

I do respect the Dolphins, though, which is why I'm having a little trouble picking the Pats to cover such a big spread. What will help me sleep at night is the fact that it's Belichick, with a week off, going against a rookie QB making the toughest road start of his career. Bill tends to thrive in those situations in case you hadn't noticed...

Look for the Pats to rely on the short pass early and often to control the ball and the clock, look for the Miami defense to sputter early and thanks to the Jets pseudo blueprint last week to shutting down the Wildcat and Chad Henne's limited ability/weapons (don't think Bill B. Hoodsworth wasn't watching that game), and ultimately look for the Pats to have this one all but safely tucked away by halftime...

Like I said, I respect the Dolphins, but with the Pats being well rested, well prepared, at home, and with the Bill's seemingly extra emphasis on every divisional game, I can't help but think the Pats are gonna win, and win big...

31-10, and in the end you'll be shocked that they won be so little...



Cincinnati Bengals (+3) vs Baltimore Ravens

Chalk this up as a line that "just doesn't look right". That's not gonna stop me from making this game one of my Top Picks, but that's probably more or less due to me being a stubborn bastard more than it is anything else...

I've been taught through the years, by many a wiser man than myself, there are sure fire signs why to pick and why to stay away from certain games. In this instance, and in many before and surly after, I'm choosing to ignore them. And believe me, a home team getting spotted 3 points to a team that they already beat by 3 on the road is definitely a sure fire sign to stay away. That sign says, "Get away from here, Rooch, Vegas knows something about this game that you will never figure out!" And right below that it says, "You're better off trying to sell your reality TV pilot The House That Sledge Built, about your buddy Hunter Schlesinger and the crazy life he's living helping his dad run a restaurant while simultaneously opening a deli and a new sports bar."...

Hmmm. Touche, sign. I mean I'm still picking the Bengals, but now you got me thinking about my next possible brilliant idea that's sure to never gain momentum, and most assuredly fall by the wayside...

I mean, you shudda seen it. I went Schlesginer's Steak House for a quick delicious cow slab before I headed home from NYC, and when Hunter took me on the tour of everything that's goin' on, my head was literally spinning. Hey, I figure if they're makin' shows about random housewives and people cutting down trees, then this tale of a family run business full of colorful characters and constant turmoil is a can't miss. I wasn't there 2 hours and I heard a bartender tell me about a biker brawl the night before at a local bar, and I met a guy named Jerry "The Shoe", a former auctioneer, "former guest of the government", and overall a guy who just "knows how to get things". He's Neil "The Sledge" Schlesinger's right hand man, and if you could see the motley crew he's surrounded his other limb's with, you'd know why this shit would be must see TV. Plus, they're already in Orange County, so they got that goin' for 'em from a reality TV standpoint...which is nice...

It doesn't hurt that Hunter is a wannabee actor (he lost out to that chubster for Sleepless In Seattle and played Jane Seymour's kid once upon a time) or that their food is awesome, either. I had a steak the size of your head for lunch, and not a more delicious piece of beef has ever crossed my lips...

Oh, and those jokes you just thought about after reading that last sentence just make you a sick bastard who needs to stop fantasizing about dude on dude love. Especially at my expense. You're just sick bastards. Subconsciously, consciously, any way you freaking slice it. That's why I'm creating TedSpin.com. For sick people like you. Trust me, you're gonna love it...

That is if it doesn't go the way of "Rock of Sledge" or whatever the Hell I was gonna call that steakhouse show. What was I thinkin'?..

Oh wait, I know what that was. It was the A.D.H.D. startin to take over. Startin' to ramble. Time for a picture of a hot chick, and a tribute to the bearded man that's helped keep my fantasy team on the right track...


Green Bay Packers (-10) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A candidate for lock of the week if not for The Beard's gimpy toe, I still have enough confidence in the explosive Packer offense to make this one of my primo selections. I mean Rodgers is the top rated passer in the NFL right now, despite the fact that he's been sacked a league high 31 times. Conversely, the Bucs are tied with the Texans for 3rd worst in the NFL with just 11 total sacks on the season. Now I'm no chef/I very well could be, but that my friends is a recipe for disaster...

That, and if those are the chicks Rodgers is able to pull in Green Bay, imagine the outfits his ladies wear when they don't have to deal with sub zero temperatures. Well played, Mr. Rodgers. I hope to be visiting the neighborhood in which you snagged that dime piece sometime in the very near future...


Atlanta Falcons (-10) vs Washington Redskins

Speaking of the Lock of the Week, here it is. Last week I shocked the world by picking the Titans as my lock, pushing my record to a God like 7-1, but this week it's back to the basics. The Redskins suck, the Falcons are pretty good, and their playing in Atlanta...

Lock it up, kids. And watch the legend of the beard continue to grow. Pun? Intended...


Seattle Seahawks (-10) vs Detroit Lions

One of those aforementioned tips I've been given through the years in regards to picking games, is to when in doubt, always take the Seahawks at home. Granted the Birds haven't exactly looked like world beaters in their past 2 games, being outscored 65-20 including a 27-3 home loss to the Cardinals, but when their at home against less than stellar opponents is when their at their best. They smacked lowly St. Louis 28-0 to open the season, and smacked a sputtering Jacksonville team 41-0 @ home in week 5...

Combine that with the fact that both Matthew Stafford and RB Kevin Smith are still somewhat hobbled by injuries, and it's not only why I like Seattle big, but it's why I'm choosing to start their defense this week for my fantasy team. Even without former local star, linebacker Lofa Tatupu...

Just somethin' about that sadium, man. Sketchy fans, but a home field advantage is a home field advantage...


New Orleans Saints (-13) vs Carolina Panthers

::DISCLAIMER: I haven't picked an NFC South divisional match up correctly since the division was created. ::

That being the case, I almost took the Panthers and the UNDER of 52 in an attempt to triple reverse my way to victory. But I didn't, so I guess that would make this the quadruple reverse...
Long story short, you can virtually guarantee now that I pick the Saints, that not only will the Panthers cover, but they will probably win all while holding the total score to 50 or 51. You can bank on it. I can't, because then it won't happen, but I'm making this sacrifice so that you can make some money. I'm cool like that. I mean, I'm cool in a ton of other ways too, like my manly beard or my ability come up with nicknames that stick. But this is the only way in which I'm cool that will help you line your pockets with green backs. That is, unless you're willing to invest in one of the myriad of partial brilliant business ideas I got cookin' in that big brain of mine...

I don't wanna bore you with those, though. I mean, it's not like you'd want to ride my genius to a pile of delicious Internet money or perhaps a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame, would ya? Nah, I didn't think so...


Philadelphia Eagles (-3) vs Dallas Cowboys

I get sick to my stomach whenever I pick the Eagles, but I get even sicker when I go against my instinct, and end up making the wrong pick...

Wait, then maybe I should pick against Philly, because my first thought was that I hate that city, all it's inhabitants (outside of a few crucial musical artists and a certain FX cast), their fake boxing hero, and the gristly meat wad they affecitonately call a "cheese steak". Right?

Nah. I hate the Cowboys too, and the Eagles are just the better team. Plus, for whatever reason, they're rolling right now...

So I'll stick with my gut, even though it's churning in agony at the same time it's telling me to make this pick. Quick, somebody say Donovan McNabb and I'll ralph all over the place...

hahaha...Ralph. Too funny. But no time for that now!...


San Fransisco 49ers (-4) vs Tennessee Titans

Here's this week's team that really "needs" to win this week. I know Mike Singletary isn't much for "moral victories", so expect his boys to follow up their near win with an actual won this week against the visiting Titans...

Oh and Vince, you might wanna put a shirt on...and start hanging out with chicks when you do have your shirt off. Not a bunch of sweaty dudes. Didn't you see what Aaron Rodgers was doing? Yeah, you wanna do more of that, and less sweaty man love and bizarre suicide attempts...

I'm just sayin'...


Indianapolis Colts (-9) vs Houston Texans

Geez, I guess I'm basically picking every game this week, huh? Lord knows this doesn't bode well. Either way, not passing up on this one...

After Peyton had his consecutive games with a TD streak snapped, expect him to bounce back big time with a huge week at home against the Texans. Houston's giving up 213 passing yards a game to mere mortals, so just imagine the type of damage Manning can do at the cozy confines of Lucas Oil Field or whatever the name of that place is. As mentioned a few graphs up, the Texans don't pressure the QB well, and that's a recipe for disaster when it comes to dealing with Mr. Manning. He's gonna sit back there and pick that team apart to the tune of 350 yards and 4 scores. I mean, just look at him. Look how rested he is. WE guys hate to admit it, but the gayer the pose you are resting in, usually the more comfortable you are. And look how gay that hick looks in that picture. I bet if you panned out you would see Leo DiCaprio setting up his paint set and whipping out a giant necklace for him to put on...

Homo-ness aside, I'm tempted to take the OVER 48 too. Matt Schaub and friends will be forced to air it out once they fall 21 down, making it a good bet, but that's for you to decide. It's a reasonable gamble, I just don't wanna press my luck any more than I already am. I got some crazy shit goin' on, and to add to that laundry list of pure insanity just doesn't seem like the wisest move right now...

On the other hand, here are some wacky picks sure to help round out your 6 game teaser. I highly recommend the KC/Jacksonville game. I like the chances of Jamaal Charles and Kolby Smith tearing it up in Larry Johnson's absence, and giving credence to that petition circulating to prevent LJ from playing again, and eliminating his chance to become KC's all time leading rusher. A fate right now that will be inevitable should be ever suit up again. He's a big tool, and I like it when big tool's get what's coming to them...

Come to think of it. Larry Johnson in a Browns uniform, standing next to Eric Mangini, might be the funniest thing ever. And if somehow JaMarcus Russell could come, and bring Darius HeywardBey with him, that would just be awesome. Ooo Ooo, and then we hire those pilots that fell asleep, and have them fly the team to Afghanistan for some sort of press thing...and yeah, you know where it goes from there. I know, terrorism is far from cool, but hey, a silver lining is a silver lining. Or in this case, a messy Brown lining...

Gross...

Kansas City Chiefs (+6.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 42

Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears OVER 44

San Diego Chargers @ New York Giants OVER 47


Monday Night
Denver Broncos vs Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 40

I'm kicking myself for picking the Broncos last week because, as I cited with the Niners, the Ravens were a solid team that really "needed" a win. But let's not dwell in the past...

This week, after suffering their first loss of the season, the Broncos welcome the Steelers to the Mile High city in a match up of the NFL's 1st and 6th ranked defenses. And while I normally preach points during Prime Time games (another pearl of wisdom passed down to me by those more experienced), this week I'm banking on a back and forth grudgefest. There should be a few big plays, because each team has some playmakers, but I expect for those to account for virtually all the scoring. Otherwise, get ready for a low relatively low scoring game, that comes right down to the wire...


Last Week: 7-7-1 (Top Picks: 4-4-0)

Overall: 66-52-3 (.558)

Top Picks: 29-29-2 (.500)

Lock of the Week: 7-1-0



It's the Saban Bowl, kids, and the only real question this week is not "if", but how many times during that game you see an ad for the film, The Blind Side. My guess is 6, with the 3rd time being the one where you acquiesce to the fact that you'd "do Sandra Bullock, even if she does look like a crappy blonde and her accent sucks"...

Other than that, there's a battle for Iowa's scraps in the Big 11 between the Buckeyes and Penn St., upset central in the Pac 10, and me continuing to pick correctly in every game this year involving the Indiana Hoosiers. Hey, Bob Knight might not love 'em anymore, but he liked to choke boys. Yeah...

Oh and I flip-flopped like crazy on the Houston/Tulsa and the Stanford/Oregon games, and we all know what that usually means. If I'm you, I take that into account. You know, for your own safety. And mostly so you don't end up getting choked out by Bobby Knight, because that makes a lot of sense in that situation...

Whatever, get your pick on, Saban lovers. And make sure the bus's speed never goes below 50 miles per hour. It's called "The Bus That Couldn't Slow Down". Or maybe for this week it can be "The Bus That Got 'Blind Sided' by Bobby Knight, Because He Was Busy Chokin' Some Kid Out When He Should Have Been Watching The Road"...

Yeah, I like the second one better, too. Really ties everything together...

NCAA Top 25 picks
Vanderbilt (+34)
vs (1) Florida

(2) Texas (-31) vs UCF

(3) Alabama (-7.5) vs (9) LSU

(4) Cincinnati (-17) vs UCONN

(5) Boise St. (-21) @ Louisiana Tech

(6) TCU (-24.5) @ San Diego St.

Stanford (+7) vs (7) Oregon

(8) Iowa (-16.5) vs Northwestern

(10) Georgia Tech (-16) vs Wake Forest

(11) Penn St. (-3.5) vs (15) Ohio St.

Arizona St. (+10) vs (12) USC

(13) Houston (-1) @ Tulsa

(14) Pittsburgh (-21.5) vs Syracuse

(16) Miami (-13.5) vs Virginia

(17) Utah (-27.5) vs New Mexico St.

Iowa St. (+7.5) vs (18) Oklahoma St.

Navy (+11) @ (19) Notre Dame

(20) Oklahoma (-5.5) @ Nebraska

(21) Arizona (-32) vs Washington St.

Oregon St. (+7.5) @ California

Indiana (+11) vs (24) Wisconsin

Wyoming (+13) vs (25) BYU


Last Week: 12-7-0

Overall: 80-50-3 (.613)

So there you have it kids, another wonderful week in the books and the promise of more to come in just a few days time. What more could you possibly ask for? There will be Sox/Yanks, I'll crank up the college hoops talk, and I might even have a yet to be named Rasheed Wallace update that will no doubt somehow involve either his missing patch of hair, or the fake leg he was weilding at a recent Chiefs game. Either way, it's gonna be hysterical, and as awlays, I hope it will be informative...

It's info-tainment, bitches!..

Have a great weekend...

Teddy Williams...
100...

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