Pages

Thursday, November 19, 2009

NFL Week 11 Picks: Cry, Cry Again...

What is this, the week 11 picks?

You bet your sweet ass it is. So let's save the pageantry and get right down to business...

Week 11 Picks

New England Patriots (-10.5)
vs New York Jets

So, it's been nearly a week. And despite the fact that every column and every sports talk show opens with "We're not here to talk about "4th & 2", they all end up just rehashing the controversial call, and it's aftermath, over and over and over again...

We've learned through digital slow motion photography, that Kevin Faulk did indeed get enough yardage for the first down, but at the same time we've come to realize that the camera angles necessary to determine that weren't available to the officials. Blah blah blah blah blah...

Get over it, people! It's time to move on!

And what better team to move on to, than the New York Jets? I mean they've lost 5 of 6 since starting 3-0 (a slide predicted right here, I might add/just did add), and their coach has again turned to drastic measures in hopes of motivating his team against their most feared divisional rival. In week 2, he used the "we're not scared" card, and the Jets came out on top, 16-9. This time? He's using the "please cry for me, Argentina" card. And in my opinion, that fat, weepy bastard is running out of cards. Like Belichick has always said, if you gear you're team up for one game, telling them that everything is riding on that one particular regular season game, getting them emotionally invested and hyped up. What happens if you lose? In my opinion, it's a roller coaster you'd rather avoid, but I guess in Rex's case, crying at a team meeting was just par for the course, and his way of staying consistent. All be it ineffective...

You can't completely blame Rex, amidst all the injuries and whatnot, but his strategy of trying to build up specific games as bigger than others is bound to catch up with him sooner or later. This week, it catches up in a big way, as the Pats have double-revenge on their mind, and are in desperate need of righting their ship. Not to mention, Welker's back to help Tom Terrific against the blitz...

Look for Brady and Co. to come out firing early, and to control the clock for the majority of the game. Oh, and if the Jets don't score first, or answer the Pats first score in a timely manner, then this one could be over sooner than you can say "Mayor McCheese"...

Pats 38 Jets 16

It's like Rex already cried, and when he sees the final score, he's gonna cry again...

And there's nothin' bootleg about that. Is there, Jerry?..


Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ Baltimore Ravens

I hate to quote somebody from "First & Ted", or if you'd prefer, "Cold Take", but I am a man that likes to give credit where credit is due. This time, the credit for the inspiration for this week's pick comes from none other than SLAM magazine magnate, Scoop Jackson...

After their near loss against the Patriots (4th &2, 4th & 2, 4th & 2!), Scoop mentioned the fact that the Colts might have a shot at going undefeated this year. They very well could be, as he so eloquently put it, a "team of destiny"...

Hey, listen, I don't wanna believe it either. After all, besides the Steelers there's no team I'd rather see lose than the Colts. But hey, when the man's got a good point, the man's got a good point...

The Ravens may have nearly upended the Pats on their run to regular season perfection, but after their close call against New England, don't expect the Colts to let the Ravens hang nearly as close...


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+11.5) vs New Orleans Saints
St. Louis Rams (+9) vs Arizona Cardinals

Why are these two games grouped together you ask? Eh, well why the Hell not. Two massive home underdogs playing against two teams coming off less than stellar weeks? Seemed appropriate. Plus, the Saints and Rams played each other last week in a battle that ended my Bearded Lock streak, so I kinda feel like I have a basis for an appropriate comparison between the 4 teams and the 2 games...

In the St. Louis game, while I know the Cards are better on the road than at home this year, and that they're flat out better than the Rams, but 9 points is just too many. They may be awful, but after a near win against the Saints last week, I feel their first home "W" of 2009 can't be too far away...

In Tampa, I essentially like the Bucs to follow the St. Louis blueprint, and run the ball well enough to keep this one close. Whether it's Cadillac Williams, Derrick Ward, or the tooth fairy, the gig is up in regards to the Saints defense, and their days of blowing people out may be over. Especially against teams that can run the ball and control the block. Ya know, a team like the Bucs...


Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs Cleveland Browns UNDER 38.5

I'd rather attempt to cut open my veins with a rusty spoon than watch this game, but since I'm taking it as a Top Pick, here goes the analysis...Hey there, rusty spoon!!

The Lions? Favored?!?

That's right, kids. The Browns are so bad that even the Lions are giving points against them, and you'd be wise to take those points and run. Between the see saw situation at QB and veterans like Jamal Lewis complaining about tough practices, we all know how this is gonna end for Eric Mangini, and in all likelihood, it will end after this loss...

Imagine this, Patriot fans, and tell me this isn't the ideal scenario. Mangini gets fired in week 11, after his team loses to the Detroit Lions by 25+. Hey, it's gonna happen. So if you're down for celebrating demise, or dancing on people's graves, go ahead and get your tap shoes ready. That ship's goin' down, and for once, the Rat will be the last one to know about it...


Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Chicago Bears

A shady line, involving a team, a QB and a city I despise? Ehhhh, what the Hell. Lock it up, Beard lovers. I may have ended my 9 week streak last week taking the Saints against a ptsy on the road, but I'll take my chances doin' the same thing this week with the Eagles...

I mean, what? Just because their fans think it's a good idea to "fly" on the "road" to victory, doesn't mean their team still isn't better than their hapless opponent. It just means they're all dumb retards who like their steak burned and covered in Cheez Whiz, and would rather worship a fake boxer and boo Santa Claus than they would take some lessons in sports etiquette. Not from the Boston pink hats, mind you, but from somebody other than the ones in which they so enjoying sharing their "brotherly love"...

Kansas City Chiefs (+10) vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Listen. I'm 7-3-0 when picking Chiefs games this year, and I'm pretty sure I'm at the very least 3-1 when picking them as home underdogs. Feel the trend, man! Feel it! Because we all know, if you feel it, he will come...

Wait...that sounded like an incredibly gay line straight out of "Field of Creams", which I can only assume is a gay baseball porno featuring Mike Piazza handing out free mustache rides to Pant-less Joe Jackson and the rest of the 1,920 Black Guys...Uh...I mean 1920 Black Sox...

Come on, you knew I was bound to stumble into at least one gross moment this week, didn't ya? I'm sorry that it was a "gay" gross moment, but I can't really control that aspect of my personality. I just start typin' and my brain does the rest. Sometimes it comes up with funny puns about Serena's ass, and sometimes we get stuff like this. You win some, you lose some. kids. And in this case, I'm pretty sure we all just lost 5 minutes of out life at the very least...


Seattle Seahawks (+11) @ Minnesota Vikings

I know I've said time and time again that this is an awful strategy, but as I'm prone to do more often than not, I'm going against my own advice and attempting to predict the "nobody saw this comin'" upset of the week...

The Seahawks are awful on the road (0-4), the Vikings are great at home (4-0), and Seattle's best weapon, it's rushing "attack", is running smack into the 6th ranked rush defense in the league...

So, why the upset? Well, last week rookie RB, Justin Forsett and the Seattle offense went up against an even higher ranked rushing D on the road in Arizona, and Forsett torched the Cardinals for 123 in an 11 point loss. Granted that's the exact spread in their match up this week, and I've already conceded the Vikes are better than the Cards, but that's exactly why I'm taking this as the "nobody saw it coming" upset pick of the week...

Well, at least the "upset backdoor cover" of the week...


Monday Night
Tennessee Titans (+5) @ Houston Texans

Then we have the Titans and Texans on Monday Night Football. The Titans, return home to face the city and the fans that they left just a short 12 years ago, while the Texans hope their literal homefield advantage can help them rebound from a near win 2 weeks ago against the still undefeated Colts...

And therein lies the reason you would think would cause me to pick the Texans. "Two weeks ago". AKA - They're coming off a bye. That, and they've won 3 of their last 4, with their only loss a 3 point road defeat to the still undefeated Colts...

But this is a division game, and the fact that it's on Monday night, only gives me more reason to pick the Titans. They're familiar with their opponent, which means they don't necessarily need the extra preparation time. And seeing as they took such a brutal beatdown earlier in the year in front of their home fans, they can use this match up to make it up to their original fans, who still reside in Houston, and no doubt would still much rather be rooting for the Oilers...

Frank Reich ain't walkin' through that door, kids. Oilers win! Oilers win!



And here, are the bastard picks. May they all grow up to be big Hollywood stars, forgive me for neglecting them, and toss me a bone by allowing me to "executive produce" their latest film about killer teen robots, who try to take over the world, but realize they have hearts too, and decide not too. It's actually a good concept, and the voice of the head teen robot is done by the kid that used to do those Dell adds. Yeah, he's out of prison now / I'm pretty sure he's still in there, and is currently starring in his biggest role ever...Somebody's penis relief tube...Can you say "Academy Award", Dell guy? Well maybe you could if you took that makeshift rag out of your mouth...


Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5) vs Buffalo Bills

Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) @ New York Giants

San Fransisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers OVER 42

Washington Redskins (+11) @ Dallas Cowboys

Cincinnati Bengals @ Oakland Raiders UNDER 36.5

Denver Broncos (+3) vs San Diego Chargers


Last Week: 12-4-0 (Top Picks: 8-2-0)

Top Picks: 41-36-3 (.531)

Overall: 86-61-4 (.583)

Lock of the Week: 9-2-0 (.818)

Lost out on pushing the lock streak to 10, but seeing as my week was fantastic otherwise, I really have no cause to complain. Actually got my Top Picks above .500, too, which is always a good thing...


Now, it's onto the college action...


This week's slate features Ohio St./Michigan, Stanford/Cal and some other great match ups, but to be honest my mind's already on to college hoops. How 'bout those Syracuse Orange, huh?

But I wouldn't be concerned. I'm fairly confident that the only reason I continue to slay NCAA football games against the spread is because I fail to actually breakdown and analyze these things beyond who's at home, how big's the #, and any past match ups between the two squads I might be able to recall from the ole memory bank...

Hey, it's a shady strategy, I know, and feel free to laugh. But it's a strategy I've been using for just about 5 years now, and it's been making me laugh, too. Laughin' all the way to the bank!, that is...Bam!

NCAA Top 25 Picks
(1) Florida (OFF)
vs Florida International

(2) Alabama (OFF)vs Chattanooga

(3) Texas (-27) vs Kansas

(4) TCU (-31) @ Wyoming

(6) Boise St. (-23) @ Utah St.

(9) Ohio St. (-11) @ Michigan

Ole Miss (-3.5) vs (10) LSU

Arizona (+6.5) vs (11) Oregon

Michigan St. (+3.5) vs (13) Penn St.

(14) Stanford (-7) vs California

(15) Iowa (-10) vs Minnesota

(16) Virginia Tech (-21) vs NC St.

Northwestern (+7) vs (17) Wisconsin

(18) Clemson (-21) vs Virginia

(19) BYU (-10) vs Air Force

(20) Oregon St. (-31) @ Washington St.

Duke (+19.5) @ (21) Miami

(23) Utah (-20) vs San Diego St.

(24) Houston (-23.5) vs Memphis

(25) Rutgers (-9.5) @ Syracuse



Last Week: 11-9-0

Overall: 106-66-4 (.614)


So there you have it, Teds and Tedettes. Another week of delicious picks for you to savor, and I even managed to reference the Dell guy and Mayor McCheese. All 'n all, I'd say that's a pretty successful post...

Before I go, I'd like to again thank all of you for the amazing response I got from the "4th & 2" post, and assure you that it should only be a matter of time before Frosco has the comment section up and running so you can more easily praise or rip me right there on the spot. Trust me, he's workin' on it. And even if it means the delayed release of my new "Mad Men", background, so be it. Without the people, there can be no Nation. Without the people, it would just be me, typing down the things that appear in my brain. And that's not cool, matter of fact, I'm pretty sure it's part of the clinical definition of "insanity"...

But what do I know? I'm not a doctor. Even though sometimes I play one on the radio...

See you next week, kids! And if I don't talk to you before, have a Happy Thanksgiving!

Gobble Gobble...

Teddy Williams...
100...

0 comments:

Post a Comment