Friday, October 09, 2009

NFL Week 5 Picks: McHoodie + The Mile High Showdown

Gotta admit I'm a little deflated and slightly tired after the Sox 5-0 loss last night to open up the playoffs, but a true blogger knows how to persevere...

OK, so maybe that's just a bunch of BS. Maybe it's just an excuse as to why this week's picks are going to be so brief, I don't know, I'm not a mind reader. But I figured I'd take a shot and hope that maybe you'd feel sorry for me. Ya know, having to stay up so late just to watch my team lose, and then waking up at the crack of dawn to make sure my picks and there and ready for your viewing enjoyment at a reasonable hour. Sure is pretty swell of me, wouldn't you say? I mean, if I weren't me I know I would feel sorry for me..and grateful too. Matter of fact, mostly grateful. More gratefulness and less pity. Like a 90/10 split. Yeah, 90% gratefulness, and 10% pity. And come to think of it, you can just replace that 10% pity with 5% awe and 5% admiration. You know how it works. There's just soooo much gratefulness goin' on that it makes feeling pity virtually impossible, and it gets you to thinking just how cool I am to go out of my way to provide you with this valuable and economically fruitful service...

But please, please. Hold your applause to the end. Or at least until the point where I break down and make a joke about Serena's man features or speculate as to what the "CB" stands for in the name of last night's first base umpire, CB Bucknor. Then feel free to applaud. But for now, you need to but laughing on the back burner, and turn your attention to focusing on all of this week's delicious picks. Times are tough, and every dollar counts. So get yours this weekend, so have plenty of money to shower on me once you realize just how grateful you are to have me at your disposal...

Oh and it's "Cock Blower". We were looking for "Cock" and "Blower". Yeah, I thought it was "Cookie Biscuit" at first too...

We would have also accepted "Call Blower", but that's not nearly as funny, so you wouldn't have received full credit. Still, not a bad guess...

Get some...

Week 5 Picks

New England Patriots (-3) @ Denver Broncos

It took about 4 years for people in New England to realize his name ended in an "s", but just 4 weeks for him to turn around a franchise that many had shackled with the Raiders to the boiler in the basement of the AFC West...

Unfortunately, for Josh McDaniels and the upstart Broncos, the buck stops here. And I could make a comment about Broncos and "bucking", and how that works on so many complex literary levels, but I'm just going to ignore that pun and gracefully move on...

What this game should come down to, is again the Patriots ability to stop the big play, and control the tempo. Oddly enough, that's exactly what McDaniels will be trying to do, too. With a dominant o-line, a dominant d-line, and game manager Kyle Orton calling the shots, McDaniels is getting wins the same way the Patriots did when Brady first took over...

That's why I like the Pats in this one, and feel fairly confident laying the 3 points, even on the road. Denver has played a little above their heads in their first 4 games, and their biggest win is against an imploding Dallas team at the friendly confines of Mile High. I don't want to discount them, or call them frauds, I just don't think that their first 4 games proved that they're capable of hanging with the Pats, who've proven their mettle with wins over Atlanta and Baltimore...

I picked the Broncos to win 5 games before the season started, and so far they've proven me they're better than I thought. But this week, the tail won't wag the dog, and the mentor will prove once again, that even if he likes his apprentice, and even if this apprentice is more prepared than others that left before him, it's all business on the field. And when you've taught the opposing coach virtually everything he knows, and you have superior talent at key offensive positions, that should cause business to boom...whether Laurence Maroney is effective or not...

New England 24 Denver 20. A close cover, but a cover nonetheless...

Minnesota Vikings (-10) @ St. Louis Rams

Lock it up, kids. It's the "Put It On the Beard" Lock of the Week. I now that's not really what it's called, but my original name is just too long for me to consistently type out. Especially since I'm short on time...

As for the match up, while I'm fully behind my "pick against the Rams" strategy, this 10 point line looks a little shady to me. I know it's a road game and the Vikings are coming off of a short week and an emotional game on Monday Night, but to just be favored by 10 against a team that averages 6 points a game and is coming off of a shutout just doesn't seem kosher to me...

Oh well. My instincts are telling me not to over think this one, so I'll just go against a few often telling trends, and stick with my original strategy. That's kinda like triple reverse trusting my instincts anyway, right? So it's all pretty much the same in the end...

PS - If Minnesota covers, and Brett Favre gets hurt, I'm counting that as 2-0. Just to give you the heads up...

New York Giants (-15) vs Oakland Raiders

3 straight weeks, and 3 straight road covers for the G-Men. So why should this week be any different? Healthy Eli or not, I don't think it's really gonna make a difference. Besides, healthy or not, you think it's really gonna matter. I mean it is the Raiders we're talking about here...

Cleveland Browns (+6) @ Buffalo Bills

Derek Anderson is my fantasy QB this week. Just thought I'd give you fair warning...

And now that LeBron has kicked Braylon Edwards out of Cleveland, I like the Browns' chances to thrive. LeBron helping the LeBrowns by having his buddy get in a fist fight with the team's #1 wideout?...WITNESS!

San Fransisco 49ers (-2.5) vs Atlanta Falcons

I know the Falcons are coming off their bye week, and the Niners are probably due for a downer after their most impressive win under Mike Singeltary, but I'm gonna go ahead and pencil them in for the big home W. They're not world beaters, and even with Crabtree their offensive probably still isn't quite there yet, but I'll take my chances with the skinny line at home against a team that I feel is at best just as good as their opponent...

Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) @ Detroit Lions

It's not quite "pick against the Rams", but with Daunte Culpepper taking the reigns this week in MoTown, and the Lions fresh off their stinker against the Bears, it may be time again to assume that the Lions will most likely lose each and every week. Not that Stafford was some sort of difference maker, or anything, it's just this team still isn't all that good. Getting a win was nice, but one win does not a reliable underdog make. They pull this off, maybe I get back on board. Until then, they're losers. Which is appropriate, because they represent possibly the biggest shithole of a city this country has to offer...

You can't spell Detroit without T-E-D, friends. It's true, and you know it's true. And you know it's meaningful too...

Kansas City Chiefs (+8) vs Dallas Cowboys

One of the coolest things about working with Andy Gresh and Scott Zolak during my days at 790 The Score in Providence, was their weekly "Locks and Shocks" segment every Friday at the end of their show. Complete with the Tracy Morgan "Wanna Wanna Wahhhh" sounder, the segment featured picks by the hosts of favorites that were sure to cover, and underdogs that were sure to win outright. A tough task, especially the second part, but that's undoubtedly what made it so interesting and so much fun. Ahhh, those were some good times, lemme tell ya...

But enough of memory lane. The reason I brought that up was obviously because I feel the Chiefs are headed for an outright win this week as an 8 point underdog. As I've mentioned several times this year, I feel the Cowboys are headed for a world class implosion, and what better way to start that implosion than with back to back losses heading into their week 6 bye...

Giving Jerry Jones 2 weeks to think about how his team just dropped 2 straight, and one to a team that was 0-4? That's a recipe for disaster, right there. That is, of course, if you're a Dallas fan. For the rest of us, it's just going to be really funny...

And I for one can't wait until Tony Romo makes a crack about Wade Phillips' gullet. Right in time for Thanksgiving, too! Ohhhh, I love the holidays!...

Here's the rest of the slate. The Panthers almost made it into the Top Picks this week, but the rest of 'em are just 6 of one and pick 'em. Then again, a shootout at the University Of Phoenix could be a good bet too. I for one can't wait until one of the players says "University of Phoenix" when they're introduced on MNF. Sure would be a lot funnier than when they say all their high schools. That's just getting played out...

Somebody grow a sack and say NETTTS, ITT Tech or the Karen Gibbs Modeling School already! I would be totally grateful...

Carolina Panthers (-2) vs Washington Redskins

Philadelphia Eagles (-15) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) vs Cincinnati Bengals

Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals OVER 49

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) @ Tennessee Titans

Seattle Seahawks (pick) vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Monday Night
Miami Dolphins (+3.5) vs New York Jets

I'd be remiss if I didn't take this time to thank my good friend, and nappy associate, Jared Hutter, for offering to take me to the Jets/Dolphins game at the Meadowlands while I'm in NYC for the Patriots' bye week. So, thanks, friend. I'm sure we'll have a great time...

That being the case, I'm gonna try to get all my Jet hatred out of the way right here and now. Ya know, to be respectful. If I don't do it now, Lord knows the embarrassing drunken things I could end up saying at the game, and the repercussions that would more than likely follow. I don't wanna give you a disturbing mental image or anything, but I'm pretty sure it would involve a fireman's hat being lodged in a less than pleasant body cavity...

So take the Phins, this week. I know they have QB issues and the Jets have a great defense, but I like the chances the Wild Cat has of succeeding in Prime Time. Ya know, just back to the theory that big things happen in Prime Time. I guess that could mean the Jets force a bunch of Wild Cat turnovers, but I'm gonna chose to ignore that possibility and forge ahead with the home team and the points...

Oh, and Jared. I'm gonna need that Mo Lewis jersey to wear to the game that weekend. I figure it's the closest thing to a Patriots shirt I can wear without getting spat on. And besides, we owe that guy so much...

Thanks, Jared. And Thanks to you too, Mo. You're way cooler than that other Mo that used to be in town. Oh and just a heads up. It's probably not a a great idea to get in the car wash business. Ya know, just in case you were looking into it...

Last Week: 8-7-0 (Top Picks: 4-4-0)

Overall: 35-29-0 (.547)

Top Picks: 11-11-0 (.500)

Lock of the Week: 1-1-0

You know what's a good feeling? I'm walking out of Cumby's the other day, and a guy that's entering opens the door for me so I can walk out. He eliminated the "do I open it? is he gonna open it?" confusion that can often happen in those situations, and for that I am grateful...

So as a sign of my gratefulness, I did the one thing I now how to do in those situations. I saw he was proudly wearing a rather fresh looking Wisconsin Badgers hooded sweatshirt, so after thanking him for holding open the door, I said "Thanks man, and hey, make sure you beat Ohio St. this weekend". Sure enough, I knew I'd judged him correctly, as both polite and a man who wouldn't wear a team logo hoodie without accepting the responsibility that comes along with it, when he replied "I don't know, man. We're nearly 3 score underdogs, it's gonna be tough. But thanks. Go Badgers!"...

A man wearing a team themed shirt, and actually knowing something about the team. It brings a tear to my eye. This week's picks, hooded stranger, mysterious visitor from the North. These picks, are for you. You bring a tear to my eye, sir. And it's moments like that which make living in this harsh world of $4 college sweatshirt bins at Bobs and Modells, just a little easier to stomach...

I salute you, good sir. And Go Badgers!...

NCAA Top 25 Picks
(4) LSU (+7.5) vs (1) Florida

(2) Texas (-32) vs Colorado

(3) Alabama (-6) @ (20) Mississippi

(5) Virginia Tech (-13.5) vs Boston College

Wisconsin (+16.5) @ (9) Ohio St.

(10) TCU (-10) @ Air Force

(11) Miami OVER Florida A&M

(12) Iowa (-7.5) vs Michigan

(13) Oregon OVER UCLA

(14) Penn St. OVER Eastern Illinois

(15) Oklahoma St. OVER Texas A&M

(16) Kansas (-19.5) vs Iowa St.

Arkansas (+3) vs (17) Auburn

(18) BYU (-16.5) @ UNLV

(19) Oklahoma (-25) vs Baylor

(22) Georgia Tech (+3) @ Florida St.

(25) South Carolina (-9.5) vs Kentucky

Last Week: 8-8-1

Overall: 33-24-2 (.576)

I leave you for the weekend with a few final thoughts. A bonus, if you will, so feel free to continue with the gratefulness. Oh, and if you're still saving your applause, this would be a good time to use it...

Game 1 for the Sox wasn't pretty, but a 5-0 loss on the road shouldn't be the end of the world. Granted it's never good to start a series off getting out pitched, outhit and shafted by the umps, but it's by no means a cause for immediate concern. A win in game 2, and the momentum is right back with Boston. Worst case scenario, they head back to Boston down 0-2, and even THAT isn't the end of the world. It's not as pertinent in a 5 game series, but the saying "a series doesn't start til someone wins on the road" still holds some water, especially considering the Sox comeback history and their ability to dominate LA @ Fenway Park...

Hey, game 1 was just a case of a big pitcher stepping up, and a big player (Hunter) making a great play. Game 2, well excuse the pun, but it's a whole new ballgame. And to use one final cliche, "you're only as good as your next day's starting pitcher", and inconsistent or not, I like Boston's chances with Josh Beckett on the hill...

Believe me, this wasn't part of the plan, and this was far from an ideal start. But by no means is it time to panic. Panic time will come when Torii Hunter hits a seed at Fenway that goes "wicked fahhh and almost broke that Citgo sign, kid"...

And finally, how can FX have such good shows as Nip/Tuck, It's Always Sunny, Rescue Me and allegedly, Sons of Anarchy, yet still think it's a good idea to produce a show about a fantasy football league? That just sounds idiotic, doesn't it? And dear God, if I feel that way about it, as someone who eats and sleeps fantasy football, who the Hell is this show supposed to appeal to? And what about the other 35 weeks out of the year that aren't during the football season? What the Hell, man? How's that supposed to freakin' work?

Whatever, me even taking time out to talk about this is just a huge waste of every one's time, so I'm just gonna go ahead and stop. What I will say, is that if you haven't seen this week's It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia, you really need to check it out. Let's just say Danny Devito gets a handjob under the table from his non-blood niece, who's name is "The Snail", and "the gang" spends the entire episode drinking wine out of soda cans. Now that's good TV, people...

And that's it, dudes, so go out and enjoy your weekend. Oh, and if you happen to have the opportunity to try one of the new Sam Adams Coastal Wheat, do it. They're smooth and delicious. And I'm pretty sure that foregin voice-over guy just said the same thing. Always un choice excellente?...

Have a good one!

Teddy Williams...



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