Friday, October 23, 2009

NFL Week 7 Picks: Perverts and Predictions...

So I got about a third of the way through writing my post for earlier in the week, and I just hit the wall. Not a mental block or anything like that, just a lack of desire to finish going down the road on which I had embarked. I didn't wanna write about how the Patriots 59-0 win was borderline boring, and you didn't wanna read it. I mean, to clarify, I was pleased with the Patriots improvement and are encouraged at the strides it seems Brady and the offense have taken, it's just it was over so fast, and the more out of hand it got, the less I felt I this game was actually going to teach me about the state of the team...

So I scrapped it. It wasn't hard to walk away, considering my busy schedule, a half assed head cold and back logged DVR programs to watch, but there was a part of me that felt bad for letting down my loyal readers. You turn to me for hilarious insight on the MLB Playoffs (which have been amazing, at least the ALCS), the week 6 wrap up and Steve Phillips grotesque sexcapades, and this week, I let you down. And believe me, I had plenty of insight into Mariano's spit-fest, the poor MLB umpiring, and again, Steve Phillips and the "Double Bag Suprise", but that's a moment in time that's passed, and my musings on those topics will have to be left to your imagination. To help you along, I will admit that there was a Dana Jacobsen reference in which she was wearing a leather saddle and trying to shove an empty bottle of Belvedere up her...well, like I said. You'll just have to use your imagination. Or go to Deadspin after you're donw here. They've been doin' a great job at carving up the sex freaks at the 4 letter network, and believe me, it makes for some mighty funny reading...

Oh and sorry about that Dan Jacobson image. I'm just so used to making fun of her man-dudeness that sometimes I forget how an image of her getting sexual pleasure from a liquor bottle might make the avgerage person just a wee bit squeamish. So again, I truly am sorry...

But to make it up to you, the loyal gangsters that you are, I've decided to unleash a deluxe edition of my weekly picks, this time picking every game as a "Top Pick" instead of just a precious few...

OK, you caught me. While I am eager to make amends with my loyal fanbase, there are two other factors that weighed heavily into my deciding to pick all 13 of this week's games...

1) A quick look at the numbers, and you realize my "Top Picks" are actually dragging down my overall winning percentage. My new feature, the "And You Can Put It On The Bearrrrrrd...YES! Lock of the Week", is helping my cause @ 3-1 and 3 in a row, but in general my "Top Picks" are holdin' me back. They're struggling to stay above .500, while the rest of my picks are cashing in at nearly a 63% clip...

So I figure, why not put my suspicions to the test? Is it me overanalyzing the picks that I write about from week to week? IS that what's clouding my judgment? It stands to reason that's the case, and the numbers bare it out, so what better way to determine if it it's true than by picking every game during a week in which I find the schedule to be rather easy to navigate. Oh yeah, that's #2...

2) I looked at the spreads this week, and while I usually have trouble selecting an adequate number of "Top Picks", this Sunday's matchups presented the exact opposite problem. With exception to maybe one or two games, I like them all! I went down the list, and one by one, I made quick and "simple" decisions as to which side of the number I'd rather be on. Granted in my experience, decisive action like this usually leads to a humbling disaster, but seeing as it jives so well with my mea cupla, I figured I'd just ignore those creepy voices in my head, and give it a shot...

Besides, I know it's what the people want. And who am I to not give the people what they want?...

Week 7 Picks
New England Patriots (-14.5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers + OVER 42 (London, UK)

So as I was saying off the top, the Patriots and their lopsided Tennessee beatdown were one of the main reasons I didn't end up posting my normal Tuesday afternoon recap. I mean, what was there to say, really? Brady's back? The Pats are the Pats again? Or maybe I could have pose the question as to why was it snowing only in Foxboro, MA and nowhere else in the area? What was the deal with that, anyway? Ah, see this is why I stopped when I was writing on Tuesday. I had a whole "Snow-Gate" conspiracy figured out where Belichick had Bon Jovi fly the snow in on his private helicopter, but it wasn't funny, it wasn't interesting, and I knew there was little chance that anyone was actually gonna enjoy it...

The good news is, it appears that Brady and the Pats are back, at least against shitty teams. Lucky for them, and lucky for us, the betting public, that's exactly who they have on tap for this week's tilt across the pond. Granted I have become a believer in what head coach Raheem Morris and rookie QB Josh Johnson are eventually gonna do down in Tampa, it's just they're at least a year away...

I look for the Pats to jump on Tampa early with, surprise surprise, the passing attack, and leave them in a hole that they won't be able to get out of. They simply don't have the passing game themselves to play from behind, and while Johnson might make some nice plays outside the pocket, it won't be nearly enough...

Brady to Moss reigns supreme for another week, the British people will still refuse to acknowledge that our football is the real football (although they do have a point, literally) and the Patriots will move to 5-2 with their second consecutive 20+ point shellacking...

Patriots 38 Tampa Bay 11

Soccer: It's "Kick the Can" for Mexicans and Eurotrash. Real men play football...or at least fantasy football...

"Anything to declare?"

"Yeah. Don't go to England!"

Indianapolis Colts (-13.5) @ St. Louis Rams

Oh, so did I mention the Pats were my lock of the week? Not the OVER, mind you, just the Pats and the points. Well yeah, they are. And so are the Colts...

I'm reverting back to my "Pick Against the Rams" strategy, and who better to be on the other side of the ball than the well rested Colts? How this could possibly end up a competitive game is beyond me. Hell I'd take this game at 15, 17, and maybe even 20, and if the Colts were at home, I'd prolly spot them an even 25...

Yeah, the Rams suck. And it doesn't hurt that Peyton Manning's ill, either...

Green Bay Packers (-7.5) @ Cleveland Browns

It's always a risky proposition taking a road team that has issues protecting their QB, but it seems this week, I'm just a glutton for punishment. Despite being sacked a league worst 25 times, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers has still managed a 101 QB rating and should have no trouble carving up the hapless Cleveland secondary...

And that's not even accounting for the fact that Cleveland is already 0-2 at home this year, and is coming off a week where the majority of their locker room was ravaged by the flu. Yeah, cuz that's exactly what that they needed...

Oh and for the record, if the Browns fire Eric Mangini this year, then that goes more towards proving they're inept than it does that he's a bad coach. 6 games into his Patriot's tenure, Coach Bill B. Hoodsworth was only 2-4. Imagine if the Kraft's had given him the boot? It's tough to remember, but that's exactly what many local media members were calling for. Even a certain few that now find their tongue's and lip's firmly up against Billy's brown spot. Not saying I like Mangini, or think he's a good coach. I'm just sayin' that judging a man on less than half a season would more be a reflection on indecisive management...

Ah, whatever. Mangini's a terd. His team is beat. And they're gonna lose...

Fire his ass, already...

New Orleans Saints (-6.5) @ Miami Dolphins

It's only a matter of time before the Saints lose, and while a tough road game in Miami might be the perfect spot for it, I just don't see it happening. I talked to Giants special teamer, Zak Deossie, yesterday for the Brown Football Coaches Show on AM 790 (ding!), and he made it perfectly clear that the Saints team that beat his Giants down last week are by far and away the best team he's ever seen in his 3 years in the NFL. More to the point, he called them "complete"...

Strong words for a man that won a Super Bowl in his rookie year against the 17-0 Pats, but he's the pro with an Ivy League degree, and I'm just a schmuck still living in his parents basement. That being the case, even though I still have reservations about their defense, I'll take the Saints and the points. If they're nearly as complete as Zak claims they are, they shouldn't have any trouble handling the Wildcat, an Lord knows Brees shouldn't have any trouble on his end...

Could this be the last time I trust an Ivy Leaguer? Could be. Then again, I'm gonna need someone to do my taxes when I start making serious money. Ahhh, what am I talking about? I know enough Jewish kids from Syracuse, I'm sure they got me covered...

Wait. Jewish people are supposed to be good with money, right?..

Oakland Raiders (+6) vs New York Jets

Nothing will be sweeter than the back pages if the Rex Ryan and his once undefeated Jets drop their 4th straight to Rex's former employer. And don't worry, I haven't gone back to predicting games based on possible headlines again, I honestly think this spread is just a little too juicy to pass up. Granted the Raiders only score a touch over 10 points a game, but I just can't in good conscience pick a team on a 3 game losing streak, traveling 3,000 miles, and spotting the home team nearly a touchdown. I just can't do it. Kind of like Sean Salisbury can't resist whipping out his wang and snapping photos of it with his phone...

Bam, ESPN! Bam! Take that, you sexual degenerates!..

Kansas City Chiefs (+5) vs San Diego Chargers

The Chiefs have been money for me this year, despite just being 1-5, and I look for them to cover for the 3rd straight week as a home dog against the division rival Chargers. San Diego is coming off a short week after their disappointing home loss on Monday Night, and KC is looking to build on their first win. Their not having scored a touchdown in the last 5 quarters and their shaky o-line are obviously a concern, but I'll take my chances...

Hey, better to take the team that's at home and coming off a win, than they team that's on the road coming of a loss, right? Yeah, that logic works...

Carolina Panthers (-7) vs Buffalo Bills

The Panthers are doing what many, including myself, thought the Titans would end up doing. They're "rallying around" or "playing for" their coach, John Fox. I know, I know, that all seems like complete bull shit, and I don't totally disagree. The fact remains, though, that after their bye week, the previously 0-3 Panthers have gone 2-0 and have just played a lot better brand of football. OK so maybe it was just games against the Redskins and Buccaneers, but at least it shows the Panthers don't suck, right?..

Now the Bills don't exactly suck, either, having played teams like the Patriots and Saints fairly close, but their o-line issues and an injured Trent Edwards don't exactly point to success on the horizon...

Then again, and not to get in the habit of second guessing myself, but if you wanna take an upset flyer, pick Buffalo backup Ryan Fitzpatrick to finally start utilizing TO, and to torch the Panthers for like 300+ yards. Hey, what can I say? It's an Ivy League type of week, and as a Harvard grad, and the only person I know to ace the Wonderlic Test, Fitzpatrick has set himself up nicely for success...

Actually, that probably means he's gonna be a huge business success in post football life, and that he'll get thrown around this week like the rag doll nerd that he is...

"You like apples? I'm takin' the Panthers and the points. How ya like them apples?"

Yeah, that sounded a lot better in my head. Ya know, when it was in the developmental stages? Now it just sounds gay and out of place. Eh, whatever, I already typed it, and I'm lazy, so I'm keepin' it...

Atlanta Falcons (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys

To be completely honest, I doubt there's a chance I pick the Cowboys as a favorite the rest of the season. Maybe even ever!..

So that's where my head's at on that one...

Chicago Bears (+1.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals

I picked the Bears to make the Super Bowl out of the NFC, and while I'm not exactly in love with that prediction, all is not lost. In my prediction, I had the Bears limping out to a 2-3 start before gaining some offensive consistency and becoming a real force. I know we haven't seen much of that so far this season, as they've struggled to run and Cutler has been inconsistent, but it has to start somewhere...

I mean, not really, but if I'm gonna be right it has to start somewhere. In my world, that "somewhere" is this week in the Ill Natty. Bear down, baby! Bear down!...

San Fransisco 49ers (+3.5) @ Houston Texans

Probably the toughest game of the week for me, and as a weak cop out I'm taking the 49ers because they're my starting fantasy defense. The Texans finally seem to have their passing game clicking, and their defense is improving every week, but after their embarrassing home loss to the Falcons, I like the Niners to come out well prepared and ready to fight. I've ridden Mike Singletary and the "preparation" card to many a win over the past year, and this week, in a game I've deemed a toss up, that's the logic I'm using to help support my decision...

That, and I really need them to show up for my fantasy team, or I could end up owing my buddy Rob 4 Gray's Papaya hot dogs, and I might be forced to smoke something that could very well kill me. It's a long story / it involves breaking the law so don't make me explain it, but trust me. We'll all be better off if the Niners shut down the Texans and there's a good chance their victory could lead to a hot dog buffet for yours truly...

So yeah. Niners...

New York Giants (-7) vs Arizona Cardinals

Normally, with the Cardinals traveling east, this would be a contender for a lock, but something just doesn't feel right. The Giants getting blown out by the Saints really threw me off guard, I guess. Either way, there's no way I'm taking the Cardinals. No way in Hell. Especially after a Cardinal team destined for the Super Bowl came into Foxboro last year and laid an epic egg. They didn't even get off the freakin' bus...

If you have more confidence in the Cardinals than I do, then by all means tack the OVER of 46.5 onto that bad larry too. For me, I'll take the Giants, assuming they'll return to their pre-Big Easy form, and assuming the Cardinals will continue their habit of playing like ass against good teams on the East Coast...

Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 43.5

ESPN's John Clayton said this game was gonna be a shootout and one of this season's must see matchups. I happen to agree 100%. Problem is, in wake of all this sexual perversion going down in Bristol these days, I can't think of John "the Professor" Clayton without imagining the unbelievably weird and kinky shit that the sickos around that joint like to do with his ponytail...

Yes. If you didn't know. John Clayton, that balding bastard, has a ponytail running down that nerdy little neck of his. And now, all I can think of is Chris McKendry strapping one on and and violating Clayton from the back, using his ponytail to gain leverage and really penetrate. Talk about the "World Wide Leader"...

Yeah, sorry. But it was such an obvious pun, I really had to use it...

Monday Night
Washington Redskins (+7) vs Philadelphia Eagles

The only reason to pick the Skins in this game is if you're A) a glutton for punishment, or B) someone who really wants to see the Eagles fail. Oddly enough, I happen to be both...

And it's not even so much that I hate all things Philly (minus "It's Always Sunny"), which I do, but it's moreso that I had a feeling before the season even started that this Eagle team was headed for an epic implosion. And nothing starts an implosion better than back to back losses to hapless teams, with the second one coming at home and on Monday Night...

Get your meth pipe's ready, Reid brothers. Daddy's gonna need a hit like no other after this week. Matter of fact, make it a double. I'm not sure how you do that with meth, exactly. But just add some more cold medicine and another splash of Drano. That should do the trick...

Last Week: 8-5-1 (Top Picks: 3-4-1)

Overall: 53-38-1 (.582)

Top Picks: 19-18-1 (.513)

Lock of the Week: 3-1-0

This week's college picks? Not getting the same special treatment as their NFL brethren, that's for sure. But that doesn't mean I'm not continuing to bring the funk...

Highlights from this week's picks include Auburn and Washington fighting conference foes til the bitter end, Mississippi St. getting a backdoor cover against the Gators, and a sentimental UCONN pick, as they hit the road to face a ranked West Virginia team the same week they lost teammate, Jasper Howard to a tragic murder...

See, I do have a soft spot...

NCAA Top 25 Picks
(1) Alabama (-14) vs Tennessee

Mississippi St. (+23.5) @ (2) Florida

(3) Texas (-13) @ Missouri

(4) USC (-21) vs Oregon St.

(5) Cincinnati (-18) vs Louisville

(6) Boise St. (-25) @ Hawaii

(7) Iowa (pick) @ Michigan St.

(8) Miami (-4.5) vs Clemson

Auburn (+8) @ (9) LSU

(16) BYU (+2.5) vs (10) TCU

(11) Georgia Tech (-5.5) @ Virginia

Washington (+10) vs (12) Oregon

(13) Penn St. (-4.5) @ Michigan

(14) Oklahoma St. (-9.5) @ Baylor

(17) Houston (-16.5) vs SMU

(18) Ohio St. (-16.5) vs Minnesota

Air Force (+10) @ (19) Utah

(20) Pittsburgh (-6.5) vs South Florida

(21) Texas Tech (-21.5) vs Texas A&M

UCONN (+7.5) @ (22) West Virginia

(23) South Carolina (-12.5) vs Vanderbilt

(25) Oklahoma (-7.5) @ (24) Kansas

Last Week: 9-6-1

Overall: 53-36-3 (.592)

So there ya have it. I hope you prosper from my sage advice, but I hope you learned something here today as well. Me? I learned that Connecticut is a dangerous place full of murderers and perverted deviants. Most of which like to do kinky things with gross interns, old nerd's with ponytails and big girls that may or may not resemble middle linebackers. Hey, to each his, her or it's own, I always say. And as long as it keeps the funny headlines and photos comin', I guess I'm all for it...

Sex on, Bristol. Sex on. Just don't let me hear any stories about what somebody caught a male intern doing with Stuart Scott's eye. There's a good chance that would just force my insides to internally vomit, thus killing me with my own poisonous toxins...

Not a good way to go, man. And a painful end that I'd much prefer to avoid...

Nice volleyball talent in that state though, if I do say so myself. Good God, those are some finely shaped rumps! Bump? Set? Spike? Yeah. Sign me up for at least one of each of those...

Have a good weekend, kids!

Teddy Williams...



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