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Friday, October 16, 2009

NFL Week 6 Picks: Ripped-Off From the Headlines...



The closer we get to the World Series, the more I'm beginning to question how on earth I didn't predict that the two final teams standing would the the Yankees and the Dodgers?!? I mean, it's not like I had the Sox winning it or anything. Matter of fact, I had the Rays. But how did I, the king of basing my predictions on what would be the best possible "story", completely whiff on spotting the potential for such a dream match up? Especially when both teams were considered top tier contenders heading into the season?!? Dammit!!!

It's got the West vs East thing goin'. Then of course there's Joe Torre coming to the new Yankee Stadium, or as he probably refers to it, "The House That I Built". It's even got a little Red Sox/Yankee thing with the involvement of a certain dredded left fielder. And yes, that's how I intended to spell "dredded", but you're free to interpret the usage of the word any way you wish...

Then again, trying to predict story lines never works out. I know, right? Who'd a thunk it? Newsflash: Predicting the future is not easy...

Matter of fact, it's trying to attempt such things that make you pick Hollis Price + Qantas White to lead the '03 Oklahoma Sooners to the Final Four in their hometown of New Orleans and miss out on a freshface youngster leading an upstate New York school on an improbable championship run...

What was the name of that school, again? They had ugly colored uniforms and some small white kid who was wet from 3? No? Yeah, me either. For some reason I was too busy drinking in the streets and dodging/igniting random flying objects in the immediate aftermath of that team's victory, so I can't really recall all the details...

Wait! I got it!...nope...lost it...I wanted to say Arizona there for a second, but that was nearly a decade earlier, and they definitely aren't from upstate New York. But hey, "Simon Says Championship!", right? How did I not see that headline comin?!?!...

Yeah, that's why I stick to predicting football games, and have long ago stopped trying to prophecize outcomes by closing my eyes and imagining possible newspaper headlines. Well, that's a lie, actually. I still consider it a hobby. And I'm still pretty damn good at it, to be honest. Not to say I still employ it as a betting strategy, as that would contradict everything I just wrote, but I do enjoy imagining them just in case. You know, so that way I can belittle all the various publications when they essentially copy an idea I had come up with weeks before...

I know, it's truly a sad existence, but hey, whatever gets you through the day right? Some people watch crappy reality TV shows, I imagine fake newspaper headlines. Whatever gets you through the day...

Oh, and I write a blog too. And in that blog I make football picks. Actually, I'm pretty sure that's how this whole thing got started. So check 'em out. And if "Good As New: Brady + Moss Return to From as Pats Torch Titans" OR "Remember the Patriots?" happen to appear at the top of a publication near and dear to you before the weekend is out, just remember...that gave me wood...

Gross...

Anyway. Simon Says, on with the picks!...


Week 6 Picks
New England Patriots (-9) vs Tennessee Titans

I say it frequently, and while I know a lot of you don't find it sincere, I have to say it again. I really wrestled with whether or not to take the Pats against the spread this week...

Now those of you that have been following me for a long time will know that I made my name in the early going often picking against the Pats right in the middle of their dynastic run. They obviously still won a bunch, it's just they sucked at covering. And look at how well that worked out for me. My team won, I looked smart, and I got respect for having the balls to pick against my own team. It was, dare I say, how life should be all the time. ME always being right, and everyone having a subtle, yet strong respect for me and my powers of intuition. IT would be a world, where, if Hank Hill were to described it, all he would have to do is take a longing look into the distance, and let out a proud, almost religious sounding, "Utpoia..."...

Good ole Hank. He'd probably find me far too liberal for his liking in real life, but seeing as he's a cartoon, he's subject to my whims, and I've forced him to be my friend. None of you watch the now cancelled "King of the Hill", though, and instead of trying to convince you it's totally worth your time, I'll just move back on to the actual game...

So as I was saying, I wrestled with this one a bit, mostly because of the monster point spread. Oh their 3 wins this year, only one (against Atlanta) has been by more than 6, and that includes a home tilt with the lowly Bills on opening weekend. Fortunately, during my wrestling, I decided that this was the weekend the Patriots offense would finally start to click, which is why I eventually took them to win, took the points, and signed sealed and delivered them as the "You Can Put it on the Bearrrrrrd....YES!", lock of the week. That's right, kids. Patriots, gonna cover. Lock it up...

Matt Light being on the shelf doesn't worry me so much, mostly because that even though they have a tough defensive front 4, the Titans blitz fewer than almost any other team in the league. Besides, everything I've seen and heard from rookie fill in, Sebastian Vollmer, has been very good and I've never been a big fan of Light. I know I've hid my true feelings about the left tackle hidden for a long time, but I think the play of the line this week will go a long way towards proving to people that he's long been one of, if not the, most overrated and overpaid player on the team...

I feel bad for Jeff Fischer and his 0-5 Titans, I really do. But a road game against a sleeping giant? Yeah, it just doesn't look good. Mustaches or no mustache, Jeff, you could be in for a really long Sunday...

The Colts beat the Titans last week 31-9, and that's the score I'm goin' with this week. The Titans could make a game of it if their able to run the ball early with Johnson and White, but I see a quick punch in the mouth from the Pats setting the tone, and leaving the announcers all game to focus on whether or not the Titans should start Vince Young, and whether or not it's possible that the NFL's longest tenured coach is in jeopardy of losing his job...

Hey, you gotta talk about somethin' during a blowout, don't ya?...


Pittsburgh Steelers (-13) vs Cleveland Browns

Philadelphia Eagles (-13) @ Oakland Raiders

"I hate the freakin' Eagles, man!" - The Dude

How true, dude. And while you're takin' it easy for all us sinners, I'll have to do abide by doing a little sinning of my own. I hate the Eagles, I hate the Steelers, and I loathe everything their cities and their fans represent. Philly Cheese Steak sucks. Keystone ber sucks. The coal industry sucks. And statues of fake boxers suck, too. Lucky for those Ted-laden fan bases, not only are their teams good, but they have ridiculously favorable match ups this week. One's going up against JaMarcus Leaf, the other, Derek "I just came off the worst game in NFL history" Anderson...

Pretty much, it's 6 of one and pick 'em as far as I'm concerned. It's two good teams, playing two bad teams, and you know their gonna win, so you just hope and pray they cover the number...

"You sayin' the carpet pissers did this?"...


Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs Baltimore Ravens

When the week began I was seriously considering taking the Vikings as my bearded lock of the week, until I finally came to my senses. Trust Brett Favre? Trust that Vicodin scarfin', Wrangler jean wearin' senior citizen with my lock of the week? Yeah, not a chance...

I still like their chances this week at home against the Ravens, though. Baltimore is good, but if they lost to the Pats in Foxboro, I can't say I like their chances in the raucous Metrodome on Mall of America Field. That just sounds menacing, doesn't it? Mall of America Field? I know I'm frightened...


New York Giants (+3) @ New Orleans

This one's for NFC supremacy, and as the spread will tell you, the odds makers think these two teams are basically even. I'm taking the Giants, not just because I think they're gonna win, but because I don't wanna start the trend of NOT picking undefeated teams when they're being spotted a full field goal. I don't care if their opponent is undefeated too, it's just good business, and not a selection I want to get into the habit of making...

Funny picture of Eli though, right? That might be photo shopped, but that totally happened...


Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks OVER 46.5

Last season, Arizona won both their match ups with the Seahawks, and the two teams scored a total of 101 points. This week, Arizona is coming off scoring 28. and showing signs their offense is back on track, while Seattle finally has a healthy Matt Hasselbeck and themselves are fresh off a 41-0 spanking of the Jags. I know sometimes in this divisional battles teams can tend to know each other too well to really score, but history shows us this rivalry has no such issues...

Look for Warner and Hasselbeck to air it out early and often, and for this 46.5 to be a mere blip in their rear view mirror as they motor towards a 38-35 type of outcome...


New York Jets (-9.5) vs Buffalo Bills

Another pick that was a candidate for the lock this week, the Jets should have no trouble with the Bills this weekend in the Meadowlands. I know a lot of people would look at the "short week" for the Jets because they played on Monday night as an excuse to pick against them, but not me. I like trends, and all, but when it comes to making picks, I tend to rely mostly on talent. Especially if there isn't any blatant headline that I'd like to see...

Then again, a picture of Mark Sanchez on the ground under a headline reading "GROUNDED", sure does have a nice ring to it, doesn't it?...Or better yet, how about a split picture of Rex Ran making a sour face and TO dancing in the endzone with the headline "Rex-ican Hat Dance"?

Yeah, that last one's not gonna work. Would be funny though, wouldn't it? Especially if he still had those flowing locks, as opposed to that spare tire...Arrrrrrriiiiba!...


As for the rest of the picks, I sat on the fence on whether to pick the Skins to "win one for Zorn", but ultimately sided with KC. And as is custom, I threw up my hands in the NFC south tilt between Carolina and Tampa, and decided the safest bet would be for me to take the OVER. Seeing as me record in that division is about 0 for a trillion, I'd just go ahead and steer clear of that game all together...

Kansas City Chiefs (+6) @ Washington Redskins

Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) vs Houston Texans

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 40

Green Bay Packers (-13) vs Detroit Lions

Atlanta Falcons (-3) vs Chicago Bears


Monday Night
Denver Broncos (+3.5) @ San Diego Chargers

Denver wins this one, and you can all but hand them the AFC West title. I still don't think their "undefeated" or "#1 seed" good, but up against the enigma that is the San Diego Chargers, I'll take my chances. Again, I don't wanna start a trend where I'm picking against undefeated teams that are being spotted points. And this 5-0 team isn't even playing against another 5-0 team. So I got that goin' for me, which is cool...Thought I was gonna say "nice"there, didn't ya? Well I'm just full of surprises. That, and after the brilliant Caddyshack parody I heard in this past week's Family Guy, I can't even bring myself to attempt a Caddyshack line myself without feeling unworthy and outdone. Well played, Mr. MacFarlane. Well played...

Last Week: 10-4-0

Overall: 45-33-0 (.577)

Top Picks: 16-14-0 (.533)

Lock of the Week: 2-1-0


Now if I didn't know any better, I would have thought that I didn't take my own advice and made these picks based on some grandiose plan. I have Florida and Alabama steamrolling towards an eventual undefeated SEC title tilt. I have 3 ranked Big XII teams being upended by their lesser conference brethren. And of course, for reasons I've still yet to figure out myself, have Notre Dame covering the 11 points their being spotted in their annual showdown with rival USC...

But fear not, loyal followers, all these picks came completely organically. I didn't look at the "big picture", I didn't visualize any fictitious headlines, and I didn't try to imagine the story lines that could pop up based on potential outcomes. This is just me, in all my prolific handicapping glory, picking the best possible sides for you to bet on, and providing you said information in a neat and orderly fashion...

I mean, why mess around with all sorts of gimmicks and gadgets when you're ill at picking winners, right? What? Do I need to change my name to "Steely Bolt" and start giving you these things on 900 number? Nah, I don't think so. And trust me, the last thing you want to see is me in a Cowboy hat...although I bet for my commercial they would let me sit on a car surrounded by a bunch of hot chicks in bikinis and wear a gold chain with a platinum $ hanging on it. But you know what, they would probably just take all that stuff away when the shoot was over and leave me lonely and chain-less, anyway, so it's probably best for everyone that I not take that route...

Anyway, here are the picks. I may be alone and without a pimp necklace, but I still know how to pick winners, dammit!

Enjoy...

NCAA Top 25 Picks
(1) Florida (-25) vs Arkansas

(2) Alabama (-17) vs (22) South Carolina

(3) Texas (-3) vs (20) Oklahoma (Dallas, TX)

(19) Georgia Tech (+3.5) vs (4) Virginia Tech

(25) Notre Dame (+11) vs (6) USC

(7) Ohio St. (-13.5) @ Purdue

(9) Miami (-14.5) @ UCF

(11) Iowa (+3) @ Wisconsin

Colorado St. (+23.5) @ (12) TCU

(14) Penn St. (-17) vs Minnesota

Texas Tech (+11) @ (15) Nebraska

Missouri (+7) @ (16) Oklahoma St.

Colorado (+9.5) vs (17) Kansas

(18) BYU (-17.5) @ San Diego St.

(23) Houston (-17) @ Tulane

(24) Utah (-16) @ UNLV


Last Week: 11-6-0

Overall: 44-30-2 (.592)


Now go out and win some money, kids. I'll see you in the funny pages. Or maybe, perhaps, the headlines? Muuahahahahaha....

Have a good weekend...

Teddy Williams...

100...

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