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Friday, October 02, 2009

NFL Week 4 Picks



Welcome back my friends, to the show that never ends, I'm so glad you could attend, come inside, some inside...

Emerson, Lake & Palmer? Anybody? No? Judging by that gay albumn cover, I can't say I blame ya...

OK. Well come inside, anyway. There's a weekend's worth of delicious picks to be had for you, even if you're not so familiar with old time rock that's often used in MLB playoff preview commercials...

So get some...

Week 4 Picks


Baltimore Ravens (+2) @ New England Patriots

Naturally, we start the week off with the New England Patriots. The team that has seemingly replaced the Red Sox in the pantheon of Boston sports (hence, no MLB playoff stuff today), and the team that I predicted so prophetically would start the season 2-2 and get physically knocked around by the Baltimore Ravens...

And ya know what? Seeing as my predictions have been so on point so far, I figure I might as well stick to my guns. No matter how unpopular they might be...

So I'm taking the Ravens and the points this week against by beloved Patriots for the exact reason I predicted back in late August. They're going to get in Tom Brady's face, pressure him, knock him down, and just flat out make it difficult for the Patriots to get their already inconsistent passing game on track...

On defense, I'd like to believe this "bend but don't break" unit has what it takes, but with the inability to pressure the QB, and the Ravens strong rushing attack, I tend to doubt it. And it's not like I'm in love with Raven's 2nd year QB, Joe Flacco, or the Ravens WRs, either. It's just that they've proven time and again, that if given time to let the plays develop, they can make opposing defenses pay on a pretty regular basis (and believe me, there are plenty of good statistics to back this up, I'd just rather you take my word for it). Granted most of the defenses they've played so far haven't been much to look at, but seeing as I still haven't figured the Patriots defense out myself, I'd have to lump them in as average as the time being as well...

That being the case, I'll take my chances with the Ravens and the points this weekend as they travel to Gillette. I know it's not very "fan-like" of me, but as usual, I don't care. I'll still be rooting for the Patriots to win, despite what many of you might think. When the Pats win, I do really enjoy it. It's just I don't think my passion for the team I like should ever get in the way of what I truly enjoy the most. Being right. Hey, what can I say?

But how about this. I'll meet you Patriot-lovin' fools halfway. New England 21 Baltimore 20. Ravens cover, Pats win, and you don't have to go around calling me a hater. I know you will anyway, but that's OK. IF you could understand half the shit I was saying about you, not only would you not be reading my blog, but you would have long ago de-friended me on Facebook. But please don't, especially if you're a chick. I need all the friends I can get, especially friends that like to post pictures of themselves and their attractive friends on a fairly regular basis...

PS - I could do without all the "which dumbass character from which crappy TV show are you?", quiz requests. Hot photos, YES. Dumb quizzes, NO. Glad we're all on the same page...


Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 41.5

Every week, if possible, you wanna try and find that one game that has that one team in it that really, really needs a win. Not like Detroit needed a win, but a team that you know is good but that just hasn't quite played up to snuff. Last week, despite being on the other side of my Lock of the Week, the Jacksonville Jaguars were that team. This week, it's the Jags opponent, the 0-3 Titans, that are in dire need of a win to prevent their season from slipping away before Halloween...

Again, the Titans early struggles were something I predicted right along with the Pats physical run in with the Ravens, so to shy away from that now just wouldn't make any sense. But along with their early struggles, I also predicted/saw on my trip to the future, that Jeff Fisher and the Titans rebounded nicely from their rough start, beginning with a resounding win in week 4 against the division rival Jags. A team that themselves are destined to spend the season in the AFC South's basement...


New York Giants (-8.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs

They blasted the Bucs 24-0 last week in Tampa, so another double digit road win shouldn't be too much to ask...

I wish I had more for ya, but sometimes it's just a case of good vs bad. This, my friends, is one of those cases...


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins OVER 37

Call me crazy, but I see a sketchy shootout breaking out in this battle between two teams on the skids. Sure it could very well end up 13-10 or 9-7 like the Skins game against the lowly Rams, but that result just seems to make too much sense. Seems, well, just seems to perfect. Especially with Tampa Bay starting their rookie QB, Josh Freeman, and likely being without the service of their major free agent acquisition, running back Derrick Ward...

But hey, with neither defense living up to their past reputation, I'm sure one of these teams is bound to light the other one up. Ya know, as sure as anyone can be about a real sketchy, "nobody saw it comin'" blowout between two teams with a combined 1-5 record, and a combined scoring average of just 27 points per game. To quote Ace Rothstein in Casino, "That's why they pay so well"...

And pay they will...


San Fransisco 49ers (-9.5) vs St. Louis Rams

Can you say "And you can put it on the bearrrrd....YES!"? I know I can...

This week, for my bearded lock, I'm taking some of my own advice, combined with some words of wisdom and encouragement from a fraternal brother from the West. This week, as I poured through the dozens (literally) of Facebook messages and emails regarding the steady improvement and entertainment value of The Nation, I came across something that really got me thinkin'...

The message was from "Uncle" Mike Lundin, a fraternity brother of mine from Syracuse, a fellow member of the lower tier of the media world, a good friend, and a big supporter of everything I do here at Rooch Nation. Mike wrote to tell me, that while he really enjoyed a lot of the work I did, there was just a touch of East Coast bias. Something he wrote off as understandable, considering where I'm from, but something that I try to avoid with every word I write. Not just East Coast bias, but any sort of bias...

Specifically, he wanted to know why I hadn't really mentioned the 49ers and their quick and impressive 2-1 start. Well, here ya go, Uncle Mike Fresh off their near miss last week in the final seconds against Brett Favre and the Vikings, I'm installing Mike Singletary and his new look Niners as this week's "Pick to Click", locking them in as my can't miss selection of the week...

When it comes to the Nation, you don't get much more love than that...


New York Jets (+7) @ New Orleans Saints

It's possible I can't see the forest through the trees on this one, but with a full touchdown to fall back on, I think I'll take my chances. Sure the Saints have won every game so far this year by at least 18, and the blitzing Jet defense might be more trouble than it's worth against a quick passing attack like that of New Orleans, but until Brees and friends do it against a quality opponent, I'm not gonna be fully on board...


Denver Broncos (+3) vs Dallas Cowboys

A short week and a trip to the Mile High air don't bode well for Tony Romo and his inconsistent Cowboys. Not that I'm buying into Denver and their 3-0 hype, but with a 3 point cushion and a strong defense at home, I'd rather be on their side of the spread than to be banking on a team that's performance is about as reliable as their head coach's chin is singular...

That, and a 4-0 Denver team, with Josh McDaniels at the helm, will make for a very interesting match up next week when the Patriots pay a visit to Invesco Field @ Mile High, or whatever it is their calling that thing these days...


Now, if you dare go against the most sage advice I can offer, here are the rest of my picks...


Detroit Lions (+10) @ Chicago Bears

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns

Houston Texans (-9.5) vs Oakland Raiders

Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts OVER 44

Miami Dolphins (-2) vs Buffalo Bills

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) vs San Diego Chargers


Monday Night
Green Bay Packers (+3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings

If there's any justice in the world, Aaron Rodgers will light up the Minneapolis skies with touchdowns to every viable receiver he's got, while Brett Favre breaks his leg in the 1st quarter and is forced into yet another tear filled retirement announcement after the doctors are forced to amputate...

...then in 2010, Favre, fresh off his win in the Paralympic games, becomes the first player in NFL history to play in a game while using a prosthetic leg. It's short lived, though, because after just 2 games on his new "magic legs", he's shot and killed by Tavaris Jackson's son. Just like in Bronx Tale, Favre will be waiving to a friend across the bar, when Jackson's young son creeps up, and blasts him right in the dome. Finally, it will all be over...

...well it will really be over when Rasheed Wallace buys the leg on eBay, and starts tossing it around for good luck. A fitting ending, if you ask me...


Last Week: 10-7-0 (Top Picks: 5-3-0)

Overall: 27-22-0 (.551)

Top Picks: 7-7-0 (.500)


After going 14-7-1 last week, I'm not going to mess with what I did to get me there. Plenty of underdogs, and very little reasoning. Two teams to keep an eye on, though, are Oregon and Cal. A week after the Ducks laid a 39 point beatdown on the Bears in Eugene, I like Cal to bounce back against USC, while I expect the Ducks to take a small step backward in their battle with Pac-10 doormat, Washington St...

The rest of the picks? Eh, well they're pretty much a crap shoot. Lucky for you, I'm good at craps...And C-lo, too. I'm good at C-lo...

NCAA Top 25 Picks
(3) Alabama (-15.5) @ Kentucky

(4) LSU (+3) @ (18) Georgia

(5) Boise St. OVER UC Davis

Duke (+16.5) vs (6) Virginia Tech

(24) California (+8.5) vs (7) USC

(17) Miami (+7.5) vs (8) Oklahoma

Indiana (+17) vs (9) Ohio St.

(10) Cincinnati (-26.5) @ Miami (OH)

(11) TCU (-24) vs SMU

(12) Houston (-15) @ UTEP

(13) Iowa (-20) vs Arkansas St.

(15) Penn st. (-7) @ Illinois

Washington St. (+33.5) @ (16) Oregon

(20) BYU (-17) vs Utah St.

Vanderbilt (+8.5) vs (21) Mississippi

(22) Michigan (+3) @ Michigan St.

Mississippi St. (+6) vs (25) Georgia Tech


Last Week: 14-7-1

Overall: 25-16-1 (.607)


So there ya have it, kids. Done and done...

As per usual, I wish you good luck with your weekend gambling, and encourage you to come back on Tuesday for a complete recap of how right I was, and how I may or not be a wizard with access to some sort of crystal ball...

I'll also have an MLB playoff preview, the story of Scott Zolak's battle with BarStoolSports, why Chicago failed for their Olympic bid, my mission to collect $100 from a fantasy baseball degenerate and plenty of reasons as to why you can feel more than justified in ignoring the NHL and the NBA...

Juicy stuff, to say the least...

So have a good weekend, boys and girls. And I'll catch you on the flip side...

Teddy Williams...and his frozen head being used for batting practice?

100...