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Friday, September 25, 2009

NFL Week 3 Picks: And You Can Put It On The Bearrrrd...YES!



Greetings, again, good people, and welcome to the home of all things Rooch...

I was gonna start this week out with a rant about how McDonalds has balls to tell you their new Angus burger is made with "real beef", but I decided since I don't eat that shit, I'm not even gonna bother. I mean, if you wanna keep shoveling down those MSG coated cat patties, that's your business, and I'll leave you to it...

My business is picking games and making snide remarks, so I'll just stick to that, and give you what you came here for...

Enjoy...

Week 3 Picks

New England Patriots (-3.5) vs Atlanta Falcons

Any way you slice it, this is a statement game...

If the Pats lose, they're 1-2, and the virtual Camelot created around Foxborough will come crumbling down faster than a Drake's coffee cake in the lockjaw ward at a mental hospital...

Should Atlanta win, well, I think we all know what ESPN and friends will do with Matt Ryan and head coach Mike Smith now, don't we? Talk about flavor of the week. And not like they wouldn't deserve it or anything, it's just in this knee jerk world where NOW is always best, the former BC QB and his formerly anonymous coach will become the latest gold standard for how to turn around a franchise. I'll admit, it's not unimpressive. Only problem is, the ball washing can't begin if the Falcons don't first come away with the victory. Which I don't think they will...

If you're asking why I think the Pats are going to win, by now my reasoning should be pretty obvious. If I'm picking the Patriots to win, it's because I'm figuring Tom Brady is going to have a big day. I don't really have a lot of logic to support this school of thought, other than he's done it before, and I fully expect him to sooner or later start doing it again. I think his receivers will begin to get up to speed, and his ability to get them the ball in the right spot will, as in seasons past, cover up the deficiencies the rest of the team may possess...

And the o-line, you ask? How can he do all this precision passing if the Falcons are up in his face as the Jets were? Two reasons.

1) The return of Wes Welker: No matter how atrocious the offensive line play has been, or may continue to be, with Wes Welker back in the fold, it becomes much less of an issue. Matter of fact, with Welker back in the game, pressuring Brady could actually work to the Patriots advantage. Julian Edleman was good last week, but essentially in numbers only. Post game analysis showed that while he did make some nice catches, more often than not he was in the wrong spots. For an offense that works almost completely on timing and rhythm, that's obviously not a good thing. With Welker back in the fold, that rhythm should be much improved, allowing Brady to thrive against an Atlanta D that, while aggressive, has given up 350 yards per game through the first 2 weeks...

2) The running game: Fred Taylor is averaging 4.2 yards a carry, yet for some reason only has 17 carries. Something's gotta give. Like I chronicled in my post earlier this week, it's the threat of the running game that's important more than the actual stats. That's why it's important for New England to actually establish the running game early, and what better chance to do it than against a blitzing defense. Belichick, though apparently resistant to the run since he was handed this record breaking passing attack, should still use the blitzing Falcon D to his advantage early, and have Maroney and Taylor dancing through the Dirty Bird secondary...

Of course, if Tom Brady's still dinged up, as some insiders claim, then all this wishful thinking about the offense getting back on track may be all for naught. Luckily, I'm not one of those insiders. And that's no fan talk. I think Tom Brady, Wes Welker and Randy Moss are just too good when they're healthy to prevent this offense from single-handedly winning games...

And who knows, maybe it's the Patriot defense that makes a statement in this game. The much maligned group is 5th in the league in allowed yardage, and we'll find out if that's a product of them playing 2 suspect offenses to open up, or if they're actually better than we've all given them credit for...

I'm choosing the former, myself, but like I said, it shouldn't really matter. Look for Matty Ice and Tom Brady to sling the ball around the yard, until a late Falcon mistake gives the Pats a 7-10 point cushion...

Oh and if the Pats lose again this week, or even fail to cover, I'm putting myself on 'Pats Probation' for the next 3 weeks. That's right. If the Pats don't cover, I'm picking against them the next 3 weeks. What? I don't like betting on losers, sue me. And besides, maybe it's just my incredibly bad sports karma these days that's forcing them into mediocrity, in which case I view it was my duty to help turn the team around...

Yeah, cuz I'm wicked noble like that...

Teddy Williams...


Houston Texans (-4) vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Ladies and Gentleman, if you please, I'd like to call your attention to the debut of the RoochNation "You Can Put It On The Bearrrrrrd....YES!" Lock Of The Week. I borrowed the name from infamous Chicago White Sox announcer, Ken "Hawk" Harrelson's home run call (you can hear him in the video, and see him in all his Elvis-like glory at the top of the post), and combined it with the fact that I am well on my way to having a full and lustrous beard. A combination that ranks right up there with Peanut Butter and Fluff, but slightly behind Jack Daniels and Coca Cola. Mmmmm that's a tasty adult beverage right there...

As for the game, and why I picked it, it's a simple case of the haves and the have nots. The Texans have an effective offense and home field advantage, while the Jaguars don't have anything that even remotely resembles a good football team...

It pains me to say that too, because I've been a big fan of Jags head coach, Jack Del Rio, for quite some time. I'm just afraid after this week 3 loss even he might find himself squarely on the hot seat, something once thought uminagineable to both Jags fans and football insiders alike. His once proud defense is giving up 375 yards and 23 points per game, and their anemic offense, at a shade more than 14 points a contest, is little more than Maurice Jones Drew and a bunch of crappy wideouts...

I like David Garrard and his game management skills as much as the next guy, but you have to be in a close game in order to manage it in the first place. And when drawn into a shootout with Matt Schaub and the finally potent Texan offense, leaning on Garrard and the suspect WRs is, to say the least, going to be a very risky proposition...

Lock it up, beard lovers. The Houston Texans are this week's Pick to Click...


Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) vs Chicago Bears

From the lock of the week, to having your cake and eating it to. And delicious cake, at that...

Here's the deal. If Seneca Wallace starts at QB for the Seahawks, then my pick stands. IF Matty Hasselbeck gets the nod, I'm taking the Bears. Weird logic, I know, seeing as I've never respected Wallace as a QB, but I've a got a 'forrest through the trees' school of thought that could see the Seahawks grab a much needed home win. This year, Hasselbeck has a new toy in veteran WR TJ Houshmanzedah, but has yet to really utilize him. With Wallace at the helm, look for him to look to open the offense up, and use the big play maker to burn the Bears D for at least 1 score and in all likelihood an ass load of yards. Hasselbeck has yet to really get the ball to Housh as much as you'd expect, and it's almost as if he's trying to be too cute. Ya know, use him more as a decoy than as an actual weapon...

It's a bold call, considering the Bears have a very good defense, but it's the wild card of Wallace calling the shots that increases the chance that something unexpected might happen. In this case, I expect the "unexpected" to be the opening up of the passing game, and a shootout between Wallace and Bears QB Jay Cutler...

And ya know what, if Wallace plays I'm taking the OVER 37 too. Why not. Just ship all my eggs into the shadiest basket of all time. What the Hell...

Oh and this just in. Frosco, whom I'm playing this week in fantasy, is starting Seattle 3rd string RB, Justin Forsett against me. Based on Yahoo projections, Forsett is slated to put up a big ole GOOSE EGG, merely another piece of evidence that the Seahawks are due for an offensive explosion...

God I love being right, and oddly enough, I even love it when it's about my own demise. It's just more comforting that way...



Baltimore Ravens (-13) vs Cleveland Browns

Though they may have given up 436 yards last week to Big Philly Rivers, don't expect Brady Quinn to have nearly the same success this week against the Raven's secondary. The "other" Brady has just a 66.9 QB rating through the first 2 weeks, and with no hope of running the ball this week against the league's top ranked rush D, all the pressure is going to be on his shoulders. It was all on him last week in Denver, and how'd that work out? Lost by 21, that's how. And last time I checked, 21 is more than 13...

Toss in the fact that this is a road game, and that's just a recipe for disaster. Almost enough of a perfect recipe to make this the Lock of the Week, but there's no way I'm kicking this thing off by picking a double digit favorite that that gets upset...


New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills OVER 51.5

This one's just a case of "ride 'em til he bucks ya", or for my older readers"dance with the gal that brought ya". Drew Brees has 9 TD passes so far this season, and he should be good for at least 2 more against the Bills in Buffalo. Add to that the Bills themselves are averaging close to 25 points a game, and the Saints D gives up an average of nearly 25, and I like the chances that for the 3rd straight week, I'll hit by taking the Saints and the OVER...

OH and keep an eye out for when TO gets in the endzone. Rumor has it he's planning on wearing a fake mole on his face, and ripping it off and lighting it on fire as a way to taunt Brees. Chants of "Fire in the Mole!" will be heard all throughout the stadium between choruses of that gay "Let's Go Buffalo!" song. What ever happened to "Dick Jauron Has Got It Goin' On", anyway? I always though that was a much catchier tune...


San Fransisco 49ers (+7) @ Minnesota Vikings

This is just a lot of points for a team that doesn't suck, playing a team that's quarterbacked by Brett Favre and has a dinged up Adrian Peterson. As with the Pats/Falcons, this could be a major statement game for Singletary and his Niners, and while I don't see San Fran taking it down, I do like their chances to cover the touchdown against a team that let Detroit hang around for nearly 3 full quarters....


Green Bay Packers (-6.5) @ St. Louis Rams

IF the Packers don't cover this spread, it could mean more bad news for my fantasy fortunes. So even with tackle Chad CLifton on the sidelines, and the fact they're visiting a Ram team that surrendered just 9 points last week, I'm taking the Packers in a blowout...

Hey, everyone needs good karma, right? And nobody needs more good vibes right now than Beard Rodgers and the suddenly sputtering Green Bay offense. Go get 'em, Aaron! Show us that all bearded guys aren't hippies and terrorists!..

Here's the rest of the Week 3 slate, for your viewing and gambling pleasure...

New York Jets (-2.5) vs Tennessee Titans

Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5) vs Kansas City Chiefs

New York Giants (-6.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Detroit Lions (+7) vs Washington Redskins

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals

Miami Dolphins (+6) @ San Diego Chargers

Denver Broncos (-1.5) @ Oakland Raiders

Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals UNDER 49.5



Monday Night
Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys OVER 46.5

It's a PrimeTime game with the absence of a PrimeTime defense. Through the years I've come to learn that's usually a sign that the game's gonna be a shootout. That logic has treated me well in the past, and I expect it to continue to treat me well come Monday night...


Last Week: 10-6-0 (Top Picks: 2-4-0)

Overall: 17-15-0 (.531)




If this were a crappy high school newspaper, and not a highly respected and widely followed sports blog, I might have titled this week's college picks something like "Upset Weekend" or "Miami, FSU, Continue to Live In Gator's Shadow". But like I said, this isn't some rag tag publication, it's the Nation. That rhymes, friends, and you know it rhymes. And if this were a high school paper, you wouldn't have the benefit of the gratuitous cleave shot, either...

So no title, just picks. Keep an eye out this week for a lot of close games in the top 10, and take special notice of the Indiana/Michigan game. On my trip to the future I saw bad things happening to the Wolverines this weekend, and as Dr. Emmett Brown as my witness, I'm sticking to my guns...

It's your kids, Marty! Something's gotta be done about your kids!!!...

Get some...

NCAA Top 25 Picks
(1) Florida (-21.5) @ Kentucky

UTEP (+36.5) @ Texas

Arkansas (+17.5) vs (2) Alabama

(5) Penn St. (-5) vs Iowa

Oregon (+6) vs (6) California

Mississippi St. (+13.5) vs (7) LSU

(8) Boise St. (-17) @ Bowling Green

(11) Virginia Tech (+2.5) vs (9) Miami

(12) USC (-45.5) vs Washington St.

(13) Ohio St. (-14) vs Illinois

(14) Cincinnati (-16.5) vs Fresno St.

(15) TCU (+2.5) @ Clemson

(17) Houston (-1) vs Texas Tech

South Florida (+14.5) @ (18) Florida St.

(20) Kansas (-13.5) vs Southern Miss

(21) Georgia (-11.5) vs Arizona St.

Georgia Tech (-2.5) vs (22) North Carolina

Indiana (+21.5) @ (23) Michigan

Stanford (+7) @ (24) Washington

(25) Nebraska (-27.5) vs LA Lafayette


Last Week: 11-9-0 (.550)

Overall: 11-9-0 (.550)


There you have it, kiddos. Week 3 in all it's glory. Hope you all benefit from my insight and knowledge, and line your pockets with money that will some day be used to buy yours truly a congratulatory beverage. But no chick drinks. Anything with an umbrella and your gonna have to explain to your boss why you have an exotic umbrella lodged in your septum...And it'll be your septum if you're lucky...

Now before I go off to enjoy a weekend full of football and the season premier of Family Guy, I'd like to thank everyone out there in the Nation for all the words of encouragement you've all passed on to me over the last few months. I swear I knew people were eatin' this up, and it's always glad to have your instincts proven right. So, sincerely, thanks for stopping by, and thanks for your continued support...

And hey, feel free to keep the comments coming, both positive and negative. I can take it. After all, that's why I grew the beard. It's a soft man-shield, porotecting my sensitive insides from the harsh realities the world dishes out on a daily basis. I figure, if the world can't take me down, then any one liners you through at me aren't gonna be able to put a dent in my man-shield, either...

Have a good one, folks, and I'll catch you on Tuesday...

Teddy Williams...
100...

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