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Friday, November 14, 2008

NFL Week 11 Picks


Geez, man...

I'm used to late week nights, but one that ends with a big tease and a kick in the junk isn't exactly my idea of a good time...

I mean, damn. I'm used to watchin' epic comebacks, and classic games. Guess it's just been a while since one of my squads has come out on the losing end...

It was so good, so painful, while at the same time, being oh so simple. The Jets killed the Pats on 3rd down (8 for 11), Dustin Keller was a menace, Matt Cassel made himself a boatload of money in his upcoming free agency, and Brett Favre's performance left me scratching my head, and 2nd guessing my fantasy football roster decisions...


Oh, and I gotta answer this question here, as I'm sure I'll be asked it about 15 times over the next 4 days. NO, I don't think the Pats should have gone for 2 after Moss' miraculous TD grab even though they just scored on 4th and Goal from the 16. I get that the 2 pointer would essentially be a 4th and Goal from the 3, and that you're not guaranteed the ball in overtime, but going for the sure 1 will virtually guarantee that you don't lose. It's not playing not to lose, mind you. It's just making the smart play. And I'd rather take my chances with the smart play, and rely on the strength of my team, than try and convert a play that's only good a little better than 1 out of every 3 attempts...


It was a great game. Sure the Pats made a few mistakes that may have cost them. But rival or no rival, no matter how gay their head fireman of a fan may be, sometime you just have to take your licks, tip your cap and move on to the next game. The Jets have proven they can win in Foxboro, and that they're a force to be reckoned with. But proving that you can win in the playoffs, when all the chips are down? Well, as of right now, you'd still have to file that one under "seeing is believing"...

Anyway, as for the rest of this week, forgive me if I'm blunt, but feel me for the reasons. I'm tired, I'm disheartened, and I see my fantasy football destiny slipping from my ever scheming fingers...

Lucky for you, I've chosen to make up for my lack of time and effort, with a pick and a one-liner for each of this weekend's games. They're quick. They're funny (debatable). And they're guaranteed to pad your wallet.......as long as you hold on to your betting slips...Bam!

Enjoy...


Week 11 Picks
Green Bay Packers (+1) vs Chicago Bears

The Packers are at home, and the Bears are coming off a physical, just miss downer against the undefeated Titans....

Indianapolis Colts (-7) vs Houston Texans

The Colts are back, and the Texans are the Texans. They'll want revenge from their week 6 meltdown, but the Colts are clicking, and should roll them like a Mexican dime bag...

Miami Dolphins (-10) vs Oakland Raiders

I don't think anyone would have believed you if you said this week 11 tilt would have a 10 point spread, but that's the beauty of the NFL now, isn't it? Al Davis and Bill Parcells could not have their struggling franchises headed in more opposite directions, and I expect that to be on full display...

Philadelphia Eagles (-8) @ Cincinnati Bengals

It's gonna snow, so 1 of 2 things will happen.

1) Late in a close game, Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid will start chokin' like they always do, and the Campbell's Soup prodigal son will end up flopping around like a dead fish having a seizure...

OR

2) A blitzing Philly defense, in the snow no less, will make Ryan Fitzpatrick wish he was back at Haahhhhvid throwing down and outs to guys with more degrees than Phoenix, Arizona on the 4th of July...

Seeing as it's the Bungles, and Marvin Lewis is awful coming off the bye, I'll go with #2, and take the Eagles with the points...

Just beware of #1. When McNabb starts ralphin' up that can of Sirloin Burger, the Bengals very well could sneak in and cover...

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) vs Minnesota Vikings

The Viking defense is good, but their a little suspect against the pass. Cadillac Williams is back in the mix for the Bucs, and he should help open some lanes for Jeff Garcia and the Tampa Bay receivers...Oh, and did I mention that my fantasy hopes are virtually pinned to Garcia's metrosexual right arm? Yeah...GO BUCS!...


...and no, I have no idea where I found that picture either. Gooooooo Intraweb!!...

Detroit Lions (+14.5) @ Carolina Panthers

The Panthers had trouble covering the 9 against the Raiders, and as odd as it may sound, the win-less Lions are better than Oakland. Might be a stretch to say they'll cover on the road, but a mistake prone Jake Delhomme should keep this one a little closer than it should be...

San Fransisco 49ers (-5.5) vs St. Louis Rams

St. Louis. Tell me how Mike Singletary's bare ass tastes...

Arizona Cardinals (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks

I've said it before, so I'll say it again. Playing it Seattle just ain't the challenge it used to be...

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) vs San Diego Chargers

Snow's in the forecast, and one of the teams is from California. Done and done...

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Reverse fantasy logic says the Jaguar defense burns me by lighting Kerry Collins up. Real logic sees a struggling Jacksonville offense get shut down, and a methodical Tennessee offense put up more than enough points to move them to 10-0...

Dallas Cowboys (-1) @ Washington Redskins

Tony Romo is back, so getcha popcorn ready. With all the turmoil surrounding Big D, I expect the healthy Boys to come out chuckin' and never look back. Jerry Jones says they're "absolutely" gonna make the playoffs, and a convincing win here would help give the old coot's statement a little validity...


OVER/UNDERS
I went 2-0 with my over/under picks last week, which means I think I'm on a roll of some kind and will continue picking them until realize I was just getting lucky. Buyer beware...

Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons OVER 50.5

Pass...Pass...Pass...Score...Kickoff...Pass...Pass...Pass...Score...Kickoff...Repeat...

Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants UNDER 44.5

Run...Run...Incomplete Pass...Punt...You get the picture...

New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs OVER 49.5

Reggie Bush...Reggie Bush...Reggie Bush...Loves Kim Kardashian's luscious round ass...and scoring touchdowns...Eh screw it. Even without him, these two should have no trouble covering this number...

Larry Johnson is finally back, and although it will be detrimental to my fantasy team (God, what isn't), I think he makes the emerging KC offense all the more dangerous. Now if only Sperm "should have been swallowed" Edwards actually knew what he was doing, those poor fools in Missouri might have a shot at winning...


And for the record. OVER on 4 feet the distance a quarter would bounce off the USDA approved massive honey glazed ham pictured above...again, dare I say...BAM!...

Monday Night
Cleveland Browns (+5) @ Buffalo Bills

Romeo Crennel spent the last week convincing the press his team hasn't quit. This Monday, Brady Quinn and crew will prove their coach, ain't no fool. They're talented enough to keep it close, but for a team that needs wins, that's gonna serve as very little consolation. Sorry, Romeo. But I see a http://www.romeomustdie.com/ website coming to a Cleveland sports radio station near you. I mean you gotta figure the folks for that DMX movie are done usin' it, right?...


Last Week: 9-4-0 (Top Picks: 3-2-0)

Overall: 81-59-3 (.577)

Top Picks: 32-24-1 (.570)


Here, allow me. "If he's so good at picking games, then why are his "top picks" not nearly as good as the rest of the games he picks?"

Answer: I don't know why that is, and I could NOT care any less. I said at the start of the season that picking all the games could turn out to be a mixed blessing, and as it turns out, I was right on the money. So there....


And here are this week's NCAA picks. I hate to be brief, but I hope you like upsets!

Ahhh, of course you do...


NCAA Top 25 Picks
(1) Alabama (-22) vs Mississippi St.

(3) Florida (-21.5) vs (24) South Carolina

(4) Texas (-13) @ Kansas

Stanford (+24.5) vs (6) USC

Indiana (+36) @ (7) Penn St.

(8) Utah (-30) @ San Diego St.

Idaho (+36.5) vs (9) Boise St.

Illinois (+10) vs (10) Ohio St.

Colorado (+17) vs (11) Oklahoma St.

(12) Missouri (-28) @ Iowa St.

Auburn (+9) vs (13) Georgia

(16) BYU (-5) @ Air Force

Maryland (+3) vs (17) North Carolina

(19) LSU (-18) vs Troy

(20) Florida St. (-6.5) vs Boston College

(22) Cincinnati (-3) @ Louisville

(23) Oregon St. (-3) vs California

(25) Tulsa (-4.5) @ Houston



Last Week: 9-7-1

Overall: 113-74-6 (.601)


So there ya go, kids...


Here's to hoping for all our sakes, that good things come in relatively small packages, and what I might be lacking in insight, I more than make up for with ability to see into the future....


Until next time. It's been real. It's been weird. It's been real weird. I'm out...

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