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Friday, October 24, 2008

NFL Week 8 Picks

Greetings, greetings fellow Friday lovers. I know it might be a lot to ask, but if you could tear yourself away from the World Series for a minute or two, I have a few suggestions on this week's games that I'd like to lay on ya...



Week 8 Picks

New York Jets (-13) vs Kansas City Chiefs

Last week, I went against my own intuition and picked the Jets as a mere 3 point favorite against the lowly Raiders. The line looked shady, I took the Jets anyway, and I paid the price.

This week, I've found the Jets in a game with an equally as shady line, but have this time decided to use the shadiness to my advantage. With the Raiders, the line looked weird because Oakland seemed to be getting too much credit. With the Chiefs, the line is so high, you get the feeling the odds makers would make it higher it they didn't deem it a complete insult to the entire state of Missouri. So this time, I'm siding with the shadiness, taking the points, and putting even a larger chunk of my weekend in the hands of Brett Favre...

And hopefully Herm Edwards will call himself to get advice on how to beat the Jets. That would really help my cause...



Carolina Panthers (-3) vs Arizona Cardinals

Simply put, the Panthers are on a roll. Aside from a blowout loss 2 weeks ago at the hand of division rival Tampa Bay, Carolina's been winning, and winning big. In their last 3 wins, all at home, they've won by an average of 24 points...

With Steve Smith now back and healthy, and Muhsin Muhammad returning to the site of his prime, Jake Delhomme has this balanced offense clicking. And the key word there is balanced. While not a juggernaut, Carolina combines Delhomme's 220 pass yards a game with 119 rushing yards a game courtesy of DeAngelo Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewart. That's bad news for the equally balanced Arizona defense. They're 12th in the league against the run, 20th in the league against the pass, and at 24.3 ppg, give up 12th most points per game. Not even their 6th ranked offense can dig them out of that hole. Especially when the Panthers flash the 3rd best scoring D in the entire NFL...

Look for the Cardinals to keep playing that "butter face" style. They look great from behind. That's when they're able to sling the rock around with reckless abandon, and that's where they'll be for the greater part of this game. And much like tagging a butter face from behind, the idea sounds a whole lot better than the actual result...



New York Giants (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

In this one, I feel it comes down to Big Ben Roethlisberger and how he reacts to the pressure brought forth by the New York Giants defense. I know that sounds rather elementary, but with the Steelers it's actually quite an enigma...

You see, it's possible for the Steelers to be at both their best, and their worst, when Big Ben is being pressured in the pocket. What separated him from the other QBs in the class of '05 was ability to throw on the run, and it's that ability which when honed correctly, is what makes the Steelers so tough to beat...

So, one way or another, Big Ben is gonna be on the run. I'm saying the Giants D gets the best of him, and it's New York that will walk away from this one at 6-1...



Atlanta Falcons (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles

Call me naive, but especially coming off a bye week, I have great faith in Matty Heisman and the 4-2 Falcons. The Eagles are a good team, and I know they're getting healthy, but this 9 point line looks like they're just sticking with the spread they had pegged for this game before the season started. I'll give the Falcons respect for just this one week, and if they actually come out on top in this one, I won't be the only one having a drastic change of heart...



St. Louis Rams (+7.5) @ New England Patriots

I know, I know, I know. The Pats just played arguably their best game of the year, and now I have the nerve to pick against them?!? Well , as usual, it's not quite that simple...

First off, it's a short week for the Pats, and fan or no fan, I never like betting on a team coming off a short week...

Two, this isn't the same Ram team that limped out to that 0-4 start. They may not be the Greatest Show on Turf, but new head man Jim Haslett has made a few key changes, and has these guys actually playing like the .500 team they should be. Bulger is back at the helm, Torry Holt has become a major factor again, and the defense is applying a lot of pressure simply by blitzing a lot more. What a concept?...

That being said, I still like the Patriots to come out with a win in this one, I just don't expect them to blow the Rams out. Two fairly even teams, will play a fairly even game, that will probably be decided by a touchdown or less. I know it's askin' a lot for me to have the Rams cover and the Pats win, but I've always enjoyed wanting my cake while simultaneously eating it...


...oh and let's please stop talking about Tom Brady and his knee infection. Your not a doctor, I'm not a doctor, and to sit here and discuss the minutia of his recovery to me just seems ludicrous. The world renowned Dr. James Andrews says he should still be OK, and that's good enough for me. Let's move on people, there's an actual team on the field that could use some attention...


Here are the rest of my week 8 picks. The more I look at them, the more it's starting to make sense why my percentage of picking these games has my "Top Picks" running for the hills. Sure look like some gimmies out there...


Baltimore Ravens (-7) vs Oakland Raiders

San Diego Chargers (-3) @ New Orleans Saints (London, England)

Buffalo Bills (-1.5) @ Miami Dolphins

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2) @ Dallas Cowboys

Washington Redskins (-7.5) @ Detroit Lions

Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) vs Cleveland Browns

San Fransisco 49ers (-4.5) vs Seattle Seahawks

Houston Texans (-9.5) vs Cincinnati Bengals


Monday Night
Indianapolis Colts (+4.5) @ Tennessee Titans

I've had bad luck this year when I've sided with the Colts, but this week I'm using a few pieces of bettors logic to justify my decision...

1) The Titans are due to lose. They haven't lost, they have to lose at some point, and who better to lose to than a legit team like the Colts. Granted it would be a better situation if the game was being played in Indy, but we can't always have the ideal circumstances now, can we?

2) Make sure you bet the right weeks with an up and down team. That's what the Colts are right now, and after that dud last week against the Packers, they're due for an uptick. They won by 31 2 weeks ago in a romp of the Ravens, and I expect them to more or less return to that form this week as they give it their all against the 6-0 Titans...



Last Week: 9-4-1 (Top Picks: 4-3-0)

Overall: 58-39-3 (.596)

Top Picks: 23-16-1 (.588)

It's a sad state of affairs when my Top Picks have been crushed by by "other" picks the last 2 weeks, but I'm a big fan of taking 'em whenever I can get 'em. I'm selfish like that...


Now it's on to the college game. A place where the sport is pure, the athletes are amateurs, and every booster handshake comes complete with a $50 bill folded up like a paper football. Oh, and every recruiting trip comes filled with beautiful campus tours, an inventory of the legendary library, and of course a ping pong match against two women that prefer to be called, "exotic stage performers"...

This week, not only are there 4 match ups featuring 2 ranked teams, but there are several other heated games that should do more than enough to keep your blood boiling for the entire afternoon. Check 'em out...


NCAA Top 25 Picks
(1) Texas (-12) vs (7) Oklahoma St.

(2) Alabama (-6.5) @ Tennessee

(10) Ohio St. (+3) vs (3) Penn St.

Kansas St. (+20) vs (4) Oklahoma

(5) Florida (-24.5) vs Kentucky

(6) USC (-16) @ Arizona

(19) Kansas (-2.5) vs (8) Texas Tech

(11) LSU (-2.5) vs (9) Georgia

(13) Boise St. (-7.5) @ San Jose St.

Louisville (+5) vs (14) South Florida

(15) TCU (-32) vs Wyoming

(16) Missouri (-21.5) vs Colorado

Rutgers (+9) @ (17) Pittsburgh

(18) BYU (-22.5) vs UNLV

(20) Ball St. (-21.5) vs Eastern Michigan

Virginia (+11.5) @ (21) Georgia Tech

(23) Boston College (+3) @ North Carolina

Virginia Tech (+5) @ (24) Florida St.

Purdue (+1) vs (25) Minnesota



Last Week: 11-7-0

Overall: 83-54-3 (.604)


Uh oh. If you thought I was done for the week you were sadly mistaken my friends. Get your trumpets out, get your wallets ready (no, not for the exotic performers, you sick freaks), because it's time for those little midgets to mount those majestic beasts and make a run for the pile of cash. It's the world's best horses, there's $5 million up for grabs. it's the Breeder's Cup, baby. Get some!...


2008 Breeders Cup Picks
I've never given my Breeders Cup picks before, mostly because I've never bet on the Breeders Cup before. Derby, Preakness and Belmont, just never the Cup. This year, my buddy Sean, after years of trying, was finally able to convince me to take a stab at the Breeders, so here we are. And seeing as this is the only event of the weekend in which I will actually have dollars at stake, I'd figure I'd throw you all yet another bone, and let you use my intuitive instincts to help make you some cakes...

Now, while I've yet to confer with my betting partners and finalize my race day selections, here are just a few notes and a couple bets that, if I were you, I recommend tossing some cakes on. But then again, if I were you then you'd be me, making you the pimp and me the sad, disheartened degenerate looking for betting tips on the Internet...

Bet on Curlin: Everyone in the know is telling me this horse can't be beat. That means 1 of 2 things. Either he romps to certain victory, or he gets upset in epic fashion. He's the 7 to 5 morning line favorite, so you'll need a bunch of cash to benefit from his victory, but sticking him at the front of all your exotics will probably prove a successful strategy. Lord knows that's what I'll be doin'...

The Return of Casino Drive: Remember him? He's the American bred, Japanese raced "ringer" that was supposed to derail Big Brown's Triple Crown bid. Well Casino Drive never saw the track after getting dinged up by a loose rock, and Da'Tara smoked Big Brown in one of the sports most surprising upsets. Now, Casino Drive is back for more, and at 10 to 1 is still being given plenty of attention. You gotta figure if there was that much hype around the horse last time around, that he's gotta be pretty good, right? I say he finishes strong and should be a good bet for the money. Maybe not strong enough to catch Curlin, but at a better price, strong enough to have some action on...

No Good Names: Usually when I look at a racing form, the first thing I try to do is match the most creative name with the most reasonable price. Not very scientific, I know, but over the years it's actually proven a pretty decent method. Unfortunately, there's no such match in this race. The best name is Casino Drive, and at 10 to 1, that's not nearly a tasty enough price to make me feel like I'm rooting for an underdog...


All that being said, check these picks out. Sure to line your pockets with extra coins, these are...


TRIFECTA
(9) Curlin

(2) Casino Drive

(11) Colonel John


TRIFECTA
(8) Raven's Pass

(9) Curlin

(6) Smooth Air


SUPERFECTA
(9) Curlin

(3) Tiago

(2) Casino Drive

(8) Raven's Pass


And don't forget my lock of the week. 60 to 1 that a horse gets euthanized on the track! Sure I may be sick, and may have made that line up myself, but you and I know that's more of a lock than betting on the cleanliness of Al Davis' Depends. Ha!...


...and if you want complete info on the 2008 Breeder's Cup Classic, check here...
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/breederscup08/index


So, bam! That's it for this week. Check back next week for the debut of my college hoops top 15, my '08-'09 NBA predictions, and hopefully an article praising my fantasy team for their outstanding return to prominence.

1 comments:

sean said...

Due, due, due...WHAT DO WE SAY ABOUT THAT? It means it's a team that been under-achieving. I know I got Peyton. Still...Colts are bad and for no good reason.

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