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Friday, October 17, 2008

NFL Week 7 Picks


Well, that was unexpected...

Just when I was prepared to compare the demiss of the '08 Red Sox to the presidency of George W. Bush, the Sox pull themselves from the fire with a 7 run, come-from-behind win for the ages. Very impressive. Even if it was capped of by David Jonathan Drew, that listless hick...

So now they travel back to Tampa. They still have to win 2 games on the opposition's home turf, but they have that game 2 mentality back. Why? Because they still have Beckett and Lester left to throw! Granted it doesn't sound like as much of a luxury as it may have just a week ago, but it's still something to cling to, isn't it? And I for one am ready to cling...

Now it's the Rays that are back on their heels a bit. They're the ones who've altered their rotation, they're the ones who blew a 7 run lead in one inning, and now more than ever they have to be feeling the fact that they're the ones that have never been there before. Will that be enough to help the Sox overcome their 2nd 3-1 ALCS deficit in 2 years? We'll have to wait for Saturday. But after last night's heroics, they even have this realist thinkin' that maybe when it comes to this team in the playoffs, anything is possible...

After all. When JD Drew is getting game winning hits, what the Hell else am I supposed to believe?!?...


OK enough baseball. I know this is a "baseball town" 'n whatnot, but it's time to breakdown ways to win you all money on this week's slate of NFL games. So sit back, relax, and peep the hotness...



Week 7 Picks
San Diego Chargers (pick) @ Buffalo Bills


Perhaps I'm being a bit nearsighted, but after watching the Chargers dismantle my Patriots last Sunday night, I gotta make them one of my top picks of the week. They dominated at the point of attack on both sides of the ball, and the emergence of Vincent Jackson will only help to bolster their already explosive offense...


I like that the Bills are coming off a bye and that they're at home, I just think they're running into a bit of a buzz saw...




Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Miami Dolphins


There's no way that "Wildcat" offense works against a legit defense. There's just no way. And you know Ed Reed and friends are gonna be extra pissed after being worked over last week by Peyton and the Colts...

I know the Dolhpin defense is more than capable of bringing enough exotic looks to keep Joe Flaccid on his toes, but I'm willing to bet that it's Chad Pennington that's going to spend most of the afternoon on the run...




New York Jets (-3) @ Oakland Raiders


OK. Let's establish the obvious. This is a shady line. Why the 3-2 Jets are only favored by 3 at the 1-4 Raiders is beyond me. The Jets have won 2 straight, the Raiders have lost 3 straight. The Jets are the 2nd highest scoring team in the Conference, the Raiders have given up the 12th most points in the Conference. So what gives? Goes Vegas have the lowdown once again? Are they set to pull our pants down? Well, probably. But I'll believe it when I see it...


Look for my man Favre to light it up to my man Cotchery, as the Jetropolitans build a big lead and never look back...




Cleveland Browns (+7) @ Washington Redskins


Two teams headed in opposite directions? Well, not quite. But I do believe last week's performances were more indicative of who these 2 teams really are...


Cleveland finally decided to show up on Monday night against the Giants, and even without Kellen Winslow's swollen pair were able to hand the defending World champs a world class beat down. The Skins on the other hand, dropped a shocker at home to the previously winless Rams just a week removed from positioning themselves at the top of the power laden NFC East...


Simply put, the Skins aren't as good as we thought, and the Cleveland Browns just aren't that bad. This should be a relatively close game, which is why I suggest you take the points...




Indianapolis Colts (-2) @ Green Bay Packers


Peyton and friends really got the ball rolling last week, and I don't expect a little 'ole trip to Lambeau Field to throw any sort of hitch in their giddy up. The healthier this team gets, and the more they're going to start looking like the Indy teams of old. Granted Jospeh Addai is out this week, but I don't expect him to be sorely missed. His versatility is just the icing on the cake when this offense is clicking, and Dominic Rhodes should be able to serve as a more than adequate replacement in his stead...


The Packers are good, and they'll have the home field, but they just quite aren't ready for Prime Time...


Yet...




St. Louis Rams (+7.5) vs Dallas Cowboys


St. Louis smells blood, as well they should. Romo's gonna play with a broken pinke, PacMan's headed to rehab, Dallas is adding a new WR to their already enigmatic offense, and the Cowboys are coming off a brutal defeat at the hands of the lowly Arizona Cardinals. Mind you that doesn't totally cover up for the fact that the Rams are pretty awful themselves, but it goes a long ways towards swaying mu judgement...


Listen, if Brad Johnson starts and/or plays the majority of the snaps, I like the Cowboys. They'll keep the offense simple by pounding the ball on the ground and should be able to easily grind the Rams right out of it by the start of the 2nd half. But seeing as Romo is gonna try and play hero, I'll take the home team to keep this one close and possibly pull off an upset that would leave Big D spinnin'...

That's when you'll really need your popcorn...

...and maybe a bottle of pain killers and a saucy, "walk of shame" lookin' PR rep by your side, just for good measure...NEXT QUESTION!...




Tennessee Titans (-7) @ Kansas Shitty Chiefs


Seven points seems like a lot to ask from the Titans on the road, but seeing as it's the Chiefs, I'm willing to make an exception. Kerry Collins and the offense will do their part to keep the game even, while my boy Keith Bullock and the vaunted Tennessee defense will do its part by putting a 7 spot of their own up on the board. Either Bullock, Jevon Kearse or Cortland Finnegan will take a turnover to the house, and the Titans will walk away with a 10+ point win...

24-10 sounds about right. Somethin' in that ballpark...



And here are the rest of my picks for the week. Six games, six home teams, and only one underdog. About as exciting as Hellen Keller's porno collection...(bump, bump, 3 vertical bumps, bump, no bump, ahhhhhhhhhh I'm about to blow!....)


Cincinnati Bengals (+10) vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Chicago Bears (-3) vs Minnesota Vikings

Carolina Panthers (-1.5) vs New Orleans Saints

New York Giants (-9) vs San Fransisco 49ers

Houston Texans (-6.5) vs Detroit Lions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10) vs Seattle Seahawks



Monday Night
New England Patriots (-2.5) vs Denver Broncos


If I were you, I wouldn't listen to me at all when it comes to picking a winner in this one. I need the Patriots defense to do well, and I need about half the Bronco's offense to do poorly....for my fantasy team. So while you might think that I'm picking the Pats because I am a fan of theirs, you would be sadly mistaken. Like I always say, "When the Patriots start paying me money, I'll start cheering for them to do well more than my fantasy team". Until then, I know which side my bread is buttered on...



Last Week: 9-5-0

Overall: 49-35-2 (.581)

Top Picks: 19-13-1 (.591)


I have to admit. It's a little tough for my pride that my overall picks and my top picks are getting so close in percentage. Then again, I'm willing to take wins anywhere I can get 'em...



Really been workin' the middle of the road these past 3 weeks with my college picks, but this week I think I've stumbled onto some gold...

Now usually, in a normal week, I have to convince myself to take a few upsets. You know, games where I just really don't know but figure "there have to be upsets" so I pick it? Well this week that wasn't the case, which always makes me feel really confident in my selections. For instance, picking Hawaii, Michigan St., Vanderbilt, Virginia and Navy all came quite naturally. Throw in a favored, but unranked, Boston College over (17) Virginia Tech in Chestnut Hill, and I'd say I've got enough varitety in my picks for even the staunchest of college football experts...

The only picks I'm really split about are the Texas/Missouri game and the size of the spread in the USC/Washington St. game. I was close to taking the Tigers to dethrone the newly #1 ranked Longhorns, but I figured since I had to pick a a winner, and I figure the game to be close, I'd go with the home team and lay the points. With USC, it's not that I doubt their ability to win, but winning by 43 points is a tall order for any team. Granted I made one of the biggest scored of my life when I bet on the Oklahoma Sooners as a 55 point favorite, but it's just not something I like to make a habit of...

Anyway, my advice to you this week is to either pick with me, or pick 100% against me. When I have gut feelings like this week, I either do really well, or I totally stink the joint up. So buyer beware. While I've made 17 decisions and laid them out nicely here before you, the ultimate decision is really yours. Don't screw up!...


NCAA Top 25 Picks
(1) Texas (-5.5) vs (11) Missouri

(3) Penn St. (-23) vs Michigan

(4) Oklahoma (-20) vs (16) Kansas

(6) USC (-42.5) @ Washington St.

(7) Texas Tech (-20.5) @ Texas A&M

(8) Oklahoma St. (-16.5) vs Baylor

(22) Vanderbilt (+15) @ (10) Georgia

(20) Michigan St. (+2) vs (12) Ohio St.

(13) LSU (-3) @ South Carolina

(14) Utah (-21.5) vs Colorado St.

Hawaii (+25) @ (15) Boise St.

Boston College (-2) vs (17) Virginia Tech

Virginia (+5) vs (18) North Carolina

(19) South Florida (-24) vs Syracuse

(21) Wake Forest (-1.5) @ Maryland

Navy (+3.5) vs (23) Pittsburgh

(25) California (-2.5) @ Arizona



Last Week: 8-7-1

Overall: 72-47-3 (.602)



Well there you have it, pimps. The Sox survive to see a game 6, and you have all the top notch football betting advice you could possibly want. Now if you'll excuse me, I have to tend to my Forsted Flakes before they get soggy, and get set to kickstart what I'm sure will be another fine weekend. And if....(cough) I mean when the Sox pull it out and make it to the World Series for the 2nd straight year, I'll be right here to tell you not only how it happened, but what miraculous thing is going to happen next...

So make sure to check back next week..

Marty McSuperFly, signing off...

...and Peace in the Middle...

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