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Friday, September 26, 2008

NFL Week 4 Picks

Well pass me an ACLU card and change my name to John Rocker. The freaking Rays have their magic number whittled down to one, and are about to walk away with their 1st ever AL East division crown. The Sox will be headed to the West Coast barring some sort of miracle, and despite my early season ball-washing of the Los Angeles Mexicanos de Beisbol (AKA: The Angels), like the Red Friends chances to pull the upset. I know they'll have a target on their backs and the Angels will be out for sweet revenge, but there's just somethin' about this time where I'm finding it really hard to write off their chances to repeat. Maybe it's the side of me that wants the Sox to stick it to Manny and the Dodgers that has me all riled up. I don't know. But I know I'm excited for the playoffs to get started. And I know I'll get to all of that at the start of next week, right before the quest for the Fall Classic kicks in to full swing...


As for now? Well, it's football time. And even though the Pats are using their week 4 bye to lick their wounds, I can guarantee ya that I'm sure as Hell ready for some football. Maybe not as "ready" as that roided out country song might suggest, but that's all bound to change after I layout a full breakdown of this week's games.



Week 4 Picks


Tennessee Titans (-1) vs Minnesota Vikings

Two teams. Two solid defenses. Two back up quarterbacks. I like the Titans defense better. I like Kerry Collins better than Gus Frerotte. And I don't like Minnesota's chances of pulling this one out on the road. Besides, since I've turned over a new leaf and started sticking with winning strategies, who better to pick than Titans head man Jeff Fisher? He's the longest tenured coach in the NFL, and if he can handle the mental incapacity's of PacMan and Vince Young, then winning a home game should be well within his grasp...



Denver Broncos (-11) @ Kansas City Chiefs

ESPN posed the question this week; "Which state has the worst professional football teams, Ohio or Missouri?". Well thanks in no small part to the man pictured above, I'd have to agree with 82% of the folks that voted, and say this one's a no brainer. While the Browns and the Bengals have looked just a touch better than complete ass so far in '08, the QB-less Chiefs and the bumbling Rams make the two squads from the Buckeye State look like Joe Montana and the late 80's Niners. And that's enough for me. Whether they're starting Tyler Thigpen, Damon Huard or freaking Len Dawson, I'm taking the Broncos, and I'm taking them in a big way. I know Arrowhead can be a tough place to play, but with KC smack dab in the middle of some whacked-out rebuilding project, I'll take the visiting team every day of the week, and twice on Sunday. Ha!...


New Orleans Saints (-3) vs San Fransisco 49ers

I look at this game, and see a team that's probably a little better than their record, and a team that's probably arriving just a tad too soon. The Saints are 1-2 after a heart breaking road loss to the Broncos. And while the Niners are a slightly surprising 2-1, their 2 wins (@ Seattle in OT and VS Detroit) don't exactly instill a shat-load of confidence. Reggie Bush has started to show his true worth with 487 total yards and 4 touchdowns, and even though the Saints continue to battle injuries on both sides of the ball, they're offense should be good enough to power through San Fran. Not to say the Niners aren't any good, but in what figures to be a shoot out, I'll take the team that that's score 78 points on the year, over the squad that's managed just a measly 77. Ha! again!...



Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) vs Houston Texans

Jacksonville is coming off a big win against Indy @ Lucas Oil Field last weekend, but more than just a W, I think that victory helped get this team back on the right track. After losses @ Tennessee and at home against the Bills to start the season, the Jags scored a big win vs the division rival Colts by doing what they do best. Imposing their will, and running the bean. After rushing for just 97 yards on 35 carries over the first two games (2.77 yards per carry), the bruising tandem of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew exploded against Indy, more than doubling their season output to that point with a very impressive 228 yards on just 45 carries (5.06). I like what the win @ Indy must have done for their confidence, and I like how their o-line rebounded to dominate in the run game. Besides, the Texans still have to be in a wacky head space after Hurricane Ike. That, combined with the fact they haven't actually been playing that well gives me more than enough to take the Jags at home by more than a touchdown...


Cleveland Browns (+4) @ Cincinnati Bengals

So. If the Chiefs have the Show Me State on lockdown, that leaves just one question. Who's the worst team in the state of Ohio? Answer? It's the Bengals. Just don't say it to their faces, or they might get wasted and piss all over you. Or if you're a woman, they might beat you. Lucky for the Browns, Cincy doesn't seem to ever take their anger out on opposing defenses...

...on a side note, this is what the state of Ohio gets for shadily bordering West Virginia, and not letting anyone know about it. Freaking inbreeders by association...



Oakland Raiders (+8) vs San Diego Chargers

I've never been one to quit on a winning strategy, so San Diego or no San Diego I'm stickin' with my main man Lane Kiffin. Not only is he still in limbo about the status of his j-o-b, but now Al "the Crypt Keeper" Davis is messin' with his personal life. Kiffin says his wife is pissed that she's been having to ward off realtors that think they're headed out of town, and that the distinct possibility of him losing his position is beginning to take it's toll on her sanity. Well! That's all I need! Hope you weren't looking for an actual breakdown, because that's my logic behind taking this game. The more dysfunctional this situation gets, the more I like the Raiders. That is until Kiffin gets the boot. In which case I will begin to cry, and search for other quirky gimmicks to plug into my picks each week...



Buffalo Bills (-10) @ St. Louis Rams

You saw what I wrote about the Chiefs, right? Well the Rams are worse. They can't run, they can't pass, they suck on D. I mean if I weren't forced to believe it, I'd have trouble believing they were a pro football team at all for crying out loud! So this one's easy. I'm taking the Bills. It's a big spread for a road team, I know. But that's just how sucky I think the RAms actually are. Scott Linehan: Making Lane Kiffen look like Jef Fisher since 2008...


And here are the rest of my picks for the week. I like Favre and Warner to bust the over with a shootout-type performance. And I like the Bears and the Skins to slow things down, and keep their respective games closer than the spread may suggest. Take a look...


New York Jets (pick) vs Arizona Cardinals

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4) vs Green Bay Packers

Carolina Panthers (-4.5) vs Atlanta Falcons

Washington Redkskin (+7) @ Dallas Cowboys

Chicago Bears (+7) @ Philadelphia Eagles

...Oh, and if I get another email this week from someone telling me they "read my picks, but need to know who to pick in the Chicago game", then I'm gonna ralph down their throat. I pick every game, people! If you read my shit, and don't know who I picked, then you have one of two major issues. You're either lying, or you're a tard. Either way, I suggest you have that issue checked out. Or you might wake on on Monday having to clear some of my vomit out of your throat. Hope you like hot dogs!...


Monday Night


Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) vs Baltimore Ravens

They could be the death of me, but I pretty much refuse to pick the Ravens unless they somehow are at home against the Chiefs or Rams. I can't remember if those games are actually going to happen or not, but more or less I'm just refusing to acknowledge that this team is even the least bit relevant when it comes to the AFC power structure conversation...

I still hate the Steelers, mind you. It's just that I hate being wrong a helluva lot more. And even though head coach Mike Tomlin looks like he should be slangin' cell phones at the mall, and Willie Parker will be watching from the bench, I'm still pickin' Pittsburgh to roll big on MNF...


Last Week: 9-7-0 (Top Picks: 4-3-0)

Overall: 25-22-0 (.532)

Top Picks: 9-4-0 (.692)


Staying on the "sticking with a good strategy" tip, that's exactly what I plan to do this week with my NCAA picks. Last week, I was smart, and took a lot of home underdogs, and that helped propel me to a 15-3 week. So this week, I'm doin' that again, along with another healthy dose of underdogs that I think will make a pretty good game of it. Like I said last week. Home teams do well, and the games are usually closer than you'd think...

Some games of note this week. I like NC State to pull another upset cover for me. I'm picking against Clemson because I don't think I've ever won picking with them. I like Michigan, Florida and Auburn all to pull off big conference wins. And I'm a big fan of doing Fresno St. just like Toledo did last week with the exact same point spread. Rick Neuheisel and the his Bruins are due for a big time game, and even though no logic tells me they should pull this one off, I gotta make 'em my pick. They're at home, they're getting points, and it's the last chance I'm gonna have to say anything nice about the Bruins for the next 6 months...


NCAA Top 25 Picks
(2) Oklahoma (-17) vs (24) TCU

(8) Alabama (+8) @ (3) Georgia

(4) Florida (-22.5) vs Mississippi

(5) LSU (-24) vs Mississippi St.

(7) Texas (-27.5) vs Arkansas

Michigan (+6) vs (9) Wisconsin

(22) Illinois (+14.5) @ (12) Penn St.

NC State (+8.5) vs (13) South Florida

(14) Ohio St. (-18) vs Minnesota

(15) Auburn (6.5) vs Tennessee

(16) Wake Forest (-16) vs Navy

(17) Utah (OFF) vs Weber St.

Maryland (+11) @ (20) Clemson

(23) East Carolina (-10.5) vs Houston

UCLA (+6.5) vs (25) Fresno St.

Last Week: 15-3-0

Overall: 47-26-2 (.640)


Bam! Good luck kids, but I'm out of time. Check me out next week and I'll have a a full breakdown of the playoffs, and a full recap of this week's NFL action...

...and a few racial slurs, dirty puns, and possibly even a video involving several girls, yet only a single cup...

Gross, just kidding...

Or am I?...Guess you'll have to come back and check it out...

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