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Friday, September 19, 2008

NFL Week 3 Picks

If you've looked at the games this weekend in the NFL, and you aren't pumped. Well, then I just don't know what I can do for ya. There's a full slate of big time match ups this weekend, and thanks to yours truly, you're about to know exactly where to put your money in order to maximize both your financial gain, and your entertainment experience. Check it out...


Week 3 Picks
New England Patriots (-12.5) vs Miami Dolphins

Joey Porter and Curt Schilling. Two of the most legendary gum-bumpers of our time. So it's only appropriate that on the same day Curt unleashed his pent up hate against Manny Ramirez (http://www.projo.com/redsox/content/projo_20080918_curt_schilling.8a0e1417.html), Porter ran his mouth and guaranteed victory for his 0-2 Phins against the Tom Brady-less New England Patriots. And while Manny won't likely have a coherent response to Red Light's latest barbs, safety Rodney Harrison has already labeled the boisterous linebackers pre-emptive smack as, "Joey being Joey". And that's just what it is. Porter's always been one to make guarantees and call out opponents, but it's a little different when you're playing for the lowly Dolphins, as opposed to a contender like the Pittsburgh Steelers. But hey, what does the guy have to lose, right? He's team's lost 20 of their last 21 regular season games, and they're playing a squad that's run off 22 straight, and has been installed as nearly a 2 touchdown favorite. It's a win-win for him. They happen to pull the upset, and he's a genius. They lose, and it's just another week. The Patriots move on, and we forget about the declining blabbermouth until be decides to call someone else out a few weeks down the road.

As for the play on the field, I see this game serving as yet another chance for Matt Cassel to build some confidence. The Pats should able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The running game will give him time to pass and give his WRs separation, while the defensive pressure will give him plenty of possessions to work with, and could even put a few points on the board for extra cushion...

Are the Patriots back? Not in every sense of the word. But they proved to me last week they're still plenty good enough to beat up on the worst team in the division. And the Dolphins are the current gold standard of NFL sucking...


Oakland Raiders (+9.5) @ Buffalo Bills

So after hearing Lane Kiffin say he hadn't talked to Oakland owner, Al Davis, in two weeks, I decided to make the Raiders my new squad. As long as they keep winnin', and as long as Davis keeps stewing in his bitter hatred for Kiffin, I'm gonna keep pickin' 'em, week after week. Why? Because I think it's freaking hysterical! Al Davis, the legendary control freak, and he seemingly has no control over his team. And why? For what? Because he suddenly changed his mind about the guy he hired to run his team? I mean is this guy nutty, or what? And does he really think that by threatening to destroy Kiffin's career, he's gonna convince the coach to sign Davis' letter of resignation and walk away from a guaranteed $2 mil? I mean, come on...



What he should do, is one of two things. Either fire him and be done with it. OR Just let him do his thing for the rest of this season, and figure out what you really want at the end of the year. At best this team was goin' 8-8 this year anyway, so even if you hate the guy, bringing in who you really want probably won't make too much of a difference...


But, seeing as Davis doesn't operate that way, then this drama is likely to continue. Kiffin will hang by a thread week after week, until the Raiders finally lose. And since I want this freak show to continue, I'm gonna take Oakland every week until they finally lose, and Kiffin gets the axe. See to me, it's like watching "Christopher Walken starring in a Woody Allen remake of Tales From the Crypt". And for the life of me, I just don't want it to go away...

Oh, and for the record, I know the Bills are the better team. It's just that considering the the strategy I'm putting into effect this week with the Raiders, who the "better team" actually is becomes rather irrelevant...




Philadelphia Eagles (-3) vs Pittsburgh Steelers

To be blunt, I see the Steelers as a boot leg version of the Cowboys, so I'm taking the Eagles. I like the way Philly matches up in the secondary with the Pittsburgh wide outs. I like the fact that Big Ben's shoulder is a little dinged up. And I like the fact that an explosive Eagle passing attack is finally getting Reggie Brown back in the fold after a pre season hamstring injury. Granted he's no TO or anything like that, but you gotta like his chances of actually holding onto the ball before crossing the goal line, unlike rookie show-boater DeSean Jackson. And take a look at that play he made in high school. One time is acceptable, I guess. But two times? (video) Well that's a trend, folks. And while it may be entertaining, it's antics like those that will give fans, coaches and fantasy owners plenty of ulcers, and reasons to hate...

The only thing that really bother me in this one is the A-Rodian tendencies of Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb. They're money for the 1st 3 1/2 quarters, and then all of a sudden they lose it. Maybe it's the pressure just getting to them. But I'd prefer to think it's the fact that they're dippin' a little too much into the Reid brothers extensive pharmaceutical department. Hey, I'm all for meth. Just leave it to washed up child actors, porn stars and truck drivers...

Green Bay Packers (+3) vs Dallas Cowboys

On paper, this figures to be a virtual recap of last week's Dallas and Philly Monday Night track meet. Both offenses ooze with delicious weapons in the both the passing and running game, and both defenses are based on hyper aggression. And just like in the Dallas/Philly game, I see this one being a high scoring, back and forth game that goes down to the wire...


I don't like the early turn around for the Cowboys after such a big game on Monday Night, and I like the fact that Green Bay is getting points. Rodgers will continue to roll, I'm takin' the Pack...

Tennessee Titans (-5) vs Houston Texans

I was high on the Texans before the season began, but this whole Hurricane Ike situation isn't sitting well with me. When your family is living in a shelter and your house is floating down what used to be Main St., football can't possibly be the first thing on your mind. And while I respect those priorities, I just can't bring myself to pick them to cover any sort of spread at all. I'll put my money on the NFL's 2nd best defense instead, and hope that Kerry Collins continues to do enough not to screw shit up..



San Fransisco 49ers (-4) vs Detroit Lions

If anyone knows the Lions, it's Mike Martz. He helped build the current team, as seeing as he did a shitty job at it, he should have no trouble carving it up with his latest version of the greatest show on turf. Besides, I just traded JT O'Sullivan in my fantasy league, so you know he's bound to have a huge game. My only worry for the 9ers, is that they've given up 8 sacks in their first two games. But a heavy does of Frank Gore in the 1st half should open the play action, and give the surprising mobile O'Sullivan a chance to find some open targets. Detroit will be 0-3, and we can officially start like the 10th annual discussion of how embarrassing GM Matt Millen is to the game of football. Oooo, I love the holidays!...






New York Giants (-13.5) vs Cincinnati Bengals

Logic tells me the Bengals aren't this bad, but until they actually show up for a game in '08, I'm gonna be picking against them on a fairly regular basis. They're defense is a mess, and from a fantasy standpoint, the unthinkable has happened. In recent years, guys like TJ Whosyourmomma, Ocho Cinco, and Carons Palmer were all guys you'd love to have on your team. Now, I'd sooner bet on the fact that head coach Marvin Lewis is gonna get canned, rather than even suggest that this team has any chance in Hell of covering a spread...

And let's not let the ineptitude of the Bengals distract from the fact that the Giants have begun their '08 title defense in rather impressive fashion. The defense has recovered nicely from the loss of Strahan, Umenyiora and Kawika Mitchell, and Eli has come out of the gate showing the confidence that propelled the middle of the road G-Men to one of the biggest Super Bowl upsets in modern football history. It also doesn't hurt that they covered a similar spread last week against the lowly Rams, who at this point, are just Missouri's version of the struggling Bungles...


And here's the rest of my week 2 picks. I like Gus "You Rot" Frerotte to light it up and cool down the Panthers. I know Steve Smith is back from his two game suspension, but I;m just not ready to admit that we live in a world where the Carolina Panthers are 3-0...

I like the Browns to finally show up, and show the world how bad the Ravens really are. Romeo Crennel is feelin' the heat, and after two tough home games, I like Derek Anderson and that potent offense to finally start to score...



As for the Falcons and the Chiefs? Let me put it this way. I have so little faith in KC starter and Coastal Carolina alum, Tyler Thigpen, that I actually picked up the Falcons Defense just for this week 3 match up. And in a week where Bobby Thigpen's single season save record has already been broken, I can't say I like the chances with a QB that shares his namesake...


One game I advise you stay away from all together is the NFC West showdown between St. Louis and Seattle. Neither team has shown they're any good, the point spread is huge and I never like my chances betting for or against any team who has a coach on the hot seat. Well, that is unless his name happens to be Lane Kiffin...



Atlanta Falcons (-5) vs Kansas City Chiefs

Chicago Bears (-3) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints OVER 51

Indianapolis Colts (-5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Washington Redskins (-3) vs Arizona Cardinals

Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs Carolina Panthers

Cleveland Browns (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens

Seattle Seahawks (-9) vs St. Louis Rams


Monday Night
New York Jets (+9) @ San Diego Chargers

Am I taking the Jets because I have Brett Favre and Jerricho Cotchery on my fantasy team? You bet your sweet ass I am. At least partly. Fact is, while I've been outspoken in my disgust with Brett Favre's antics over the past few seasons, he's a beast under the National spotlight that is Monday Night Football. The only question, is whether Eric Mangini will let Brett Favre be Brett Favre, or if he'll continue to force the veteran to play a run-first, grind it out style...





And I for one am gonna take a lot of stock in how Mangini attacks the Chargers D. Last week in New England, instead of attacking the Patriot secondary with Favre's rocket arm, the Jets instead pounded the ball with Thomas Jones. That fed right into the strength of the Patriot defense, allowed them to control tempo, and thus gave them the upper hand and the 9 point victory. I think it's very simple, but Mangini has to understand. The only way the Jets can win with Favre, is if they let him be Favre! From my understanding, you got this guy for the potentially monstrous risk/reward potential, correct? So why not let him do this thing?!..


I'll have faith in the "Man-Genius" on this one and bet he turns Brett loose. He has to realize now that it's his teams best chance to win, and that strategy should at the very least keep them within a touchdown in this tough road battle...


Oh and watch out for Darren Sproles. Monday Night? And with LT a little gimpy? You just know that slippery little midget is gonna pull some shit and take one to the house...


Last Week: 8-6-0 (Top Picks: 5-1-0)

Overall: 16-15-0 (.516)


For my college picks this week, I've gone to a very simple strategy to avoid hitting any sort of major slide. I went a little nutty last week, and ended up at .500, but this week I'm trying to take the smart money and put together a solid performance. For instance, I'm going with home dogs NC State, Toledo, Air Force and even picking Auburn in their SEC uber-showdown with #6 LSU. I figure, it's college football. Home teams rule. And even when they don't win, the underdogs always seem to make the games closer than they should be...

NCAA Top 25 Picks
(3) Georgia (-7) @ Arizona St.

(4) Florida (-7.5) @ Tennessee

(5) Missouri (-34) vs Buffalo

(10) Auburn (+2.5) vs LSU

(7) Texas (-29) vs Rice

(9) Alabama (-9.5) @ Arkansas

(11) Texas Tech (OFF) vs UMASS

(12) South Florida (-28.5) @ Florida International

(13) Ohio St. (-20.5) vs Troy

(14) BYU (-28.5) vs Wyoming

NC State (+7.5) vs (15) East Carolina

(16) Penn St. (-28.5) vs Temple

Boise St. (+10.5) @ (17) Oregon

(18) Wake Forest (+4) @ (24) Florida St.

(19) Kansas (OFF) vs Sam Houston St.

Air Force (+8) vs (20) Utah

(23) Clemson (OFF) vs South Carolina St.

Toldeo (+7) vs (25) Fresno St.

*OFF means that the team I didn't pick is so bad, that Vegas won't even let you take the better team with any sort of point spread. Like UMASS. They're beat...


Last Week: 8-8-1

Overall: 32-23-2 (.586)


Well, there you have it. I've laid out the games this week, targeted the ones that will help you rake in the cakes, and the rest is up to you...


I hope everyone has an enjoyable weekend, and if you see me in the streets...well, then holler. Cuz from what I've been told, that's the protocol for players, when you actually do see them in the streets...

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