Friday, September 12, 2008

NFL Week 2 Picks

Well it's week 2, you gambling degenerates, and it's time to make some cakes. It's another full slate of games we have in front of us, and I've done my best to comb through and pick out the ones that are sure to make you a winner. I'm sure a lof of you are still bummed about Brady's busted knee, but nothin' can turn that frown upside down faster than a fist full of casheesh, right? So let's get down to bidness...

Week 2 Picks
Indianapolis Colts (-2) @ Minnesota Vikings

*A lot of people were on the Vikings bandwagon to start the season, but not me. I'm with the Colts. And that being the case, I find it hard to fathom that a team I picked to go 13-3 this year is gonna start the year 0-2. The Minnesota defense is good, and Adrian Peterson is a beast, but I just can't picture Peyton and Co. throwing together another stinker to go along with their opener against the Bears. Look for the Indy offense to throw a couple quick TDs on the board in the early going, throw the Viking defense back on their heels, and then shove Joseph Addai down their throats for the rest of the game...

Green Bay Packers (-2.5) @ Detroit Lions

*OK, so I know I just said taking road favorites is a quick way to go broke, but when the home team sucks, I tend to make exceptions. And in this case, not only do I think the home team sucks, but I happen to be one of the bigger fans of the road team, the Green Bay Packers. The Lions proved in week 1 against the Falcons that they're extremely vulnerable to the quick strike offense, and that's exactly what Green Bay brings to the table. Aaron Rodgers should have plenty of time to sit in the pocket and pick apart the Lion secondary, while the fast Packer D should be good enough to both get to Jon Kitna, and pose some problems for Lion wide outs Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson. I expect this game to be a shootout, but I just don't see any reasonable scenario that tells me Detroit will be able to keep pace...
...Oh yea. If Jon Kitna gets a concussion during the game and finds God again, then this pick is null and void. And he will be deemed as certifiably insane...

Cleveland Browns (+6.5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers

*Just like Indianapolis, I'm not buying that the Cleveland team I saw in week 1 is the one I'm gonna get from here on out. I don't think they're world beaters, and I never did, but getting nearly a touchdown at home is just too good to resist. Cleveland should be playing with a hint of desperation after being pushed around at home last week by the Cowboys, and I'm counting on that determination to help keep this game close. If pressed to pick a winner, I'd probably have to go with Big Ben and the Steelers, but since I think it's gonna be close, I have no choice but to go with the home team and the touchdown. Just like the Green Bay game, I expect this one to be a shootout. Remember last season when Carson Palmer and Derek Anderson duked it out and tossed 11 combined touchdowns? It won't be that extreme, but that's the type of game I think we're gonna see...

Denver Broncos (+1) vs San Diego Chargers

*In sports betting, the lines are made in order to create equal action for both teams, and aren't always indicative of what the outcome might be. That being said, of all the lines this week, this one confuses me the most. Denver is at home, they just kicked the shit out of Oakland to start the season, and the Chargers just lost Shawne Merriman, not to mention a heartbreaking home game to the Carolina Panthers. Now usually when a line doesn't make sense, it means Vegas knows something we don't, but in this instance, I'm gonna try and outsmart the odds makers. I'm sure they have some stats about Jay Cutler and the Broncos in-division at home that support this line, but I'm just gonna use the eye test. Besides, when I picked the games before the season, I had these two splitting their two home games this year, so I'm sticking with my guns...

New York Giants (-8) @ St. Louis Rams

*As bad as the Rams looked in week 1, I'm still a little weary of taking to Giants and all these points. Then again, if it wasn't for the Giants ridiculous road record in '08, I don't think the term "David Tyree's Helmet" would even be part of the American lexicon. So until further notice, I'm always gonna be picking against the Rams, and I suggest you do the same...

New York Jets (-1) vs New England Patriots

*And finally, there's this little game. The fan in me wants to take Tom Brady and the Pats just like I did 16 times last year, but this ain't Tom Brady and the Pats now is it? Without Tom Tear-iffic, the New England offense is no longer king of the hill, which for all intents and purposes, makes this "just another game". So, that being the case, Im gonna be "that guy" and take the home team that's not getting nearly enough points. The J-E-T-S hold distinct advantages in both the passing game and the secondary, and their overall defense should give Matt Cassel a lot more problems than that of the lowly KC Chiefs. I expect Mangina and friends to unleash Kerry Rhodes on the young Patriot QB, causing a turnover or two. And I expect Brett Favre to be protected just well enough by the Jet offensive line, so that he's not in position to make a few of those Favre-esque turnovers. More or less, there's only two ways I see this game going. A Jet blowout that has Belichick scrambling for a new QB, or a hard fought game that may instill confidence in Cassel, but sees the home team come out on top. Either way, as much as it pains me to say, I'm taking the Jets, and feeling pretty good about the fate of my betting dollars...

And here are the rest of my picks for week 2...

Oakland Raiders (+4) @ Kansas City Chiefs

Cincinnati Bengals (pick) vs Tennessee Titans

New Orleans Saints (pick) @ Washington Redskins

Carolina Panthers (-2.5) vs Chicago Bears

Atlanta Falcons (+8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Seattle Seahawks (-6) vs San Fransisco 49ers

Houston Texans (-4) vs Baltimore Ravens

Jacksonville Jaguars (-4) vs Buffalo Bills

Arizona Cardinals (-5.5)
vs Miami Dolphins

Monday Night
Philadelphia Eagles (+7) @ Dallas Cowboys

*After rivals Oakland/Denver and Green Bay/Minnesota took to the field in week 1 on Monday, week 2 finally gives the nation a rivalry we can sink our teeth into. Both Philly and Dallas romped to wins in week 1, and thanks to their explosive offensive outputs in those games, have really set the entertainment bar rather high for their Monday Night showdown. This one figures to be a fast paced shootout as well, but with points coming from both the offense and the defense. That being the case, I'm giving the nod to the visiting Eagles. Again, it pains me to take a team I don't really like, but I truly think their blitzing schemes and a healthy Donovan McNabb will ultimately give them the edge. And not just in this game, but in the division as well...

Last Week: 7-9-0

Now, for the first time in 2008, I give you my NCAA top 25 picks for the week. This week's games are highlighted by the USC/OSU showdown on Saturday night, but there are plenty of other juicy match ups for you to help wet your betting whistle. Just make sure you don't sleep on Purdue and Fresno St., my top two upset picks of the week. Check 'em out, and make sure to steer clear of Pete Carroll and the poop deck...

College Football Top 25 Picks
(1) USC (-10.5) vs (5) Ohio St.

(2) Georgia (-7) @ South Carolina

(3) Oklahoma (-20) @ Washington

(6) Missouri (-26.5) vs Nevada

(7) LSU (-40) vs North Texas

(9) Auburn (-10.5) @ Mississippi St.

(21) Fresno St. (+1.5) vs (10) Wisconsin

(11) Alabama (-27.5) vs Western Kentucky

(12) Texas Tech (-27.5) vs SMU

(19) South Florida (-3.5) vs (13) Kansas

(14) East Carolina (-13) @ Tulane

(15) Arizona St. (-22) vs UNLV

Purdue (+8) vs (16) Oregon

(17) Penn. St (-26.5) @ Syracuse

(18) BYU (-8) vs UCLA

(22) Utah (-24.5) @ Utah St.

(23) California (-14) @ Maryland

(24) Illinois (-24) vs Louisiana Lafayette

Last Week: 11-9-0

Overall: 25-15-1 (.622)
You'll notice that I have compiled a hefty record despite not posting and picks, but that's because I'm in a top secret college picks league that I didn't let you know about. Yeah, so suck it. What you should also notice, is that I've been doing a pretty good job so far this year. So bet with me, and you'll be a least in terms of increasing your bank roll. As far as popularity, you're on your own...

So good luck this weekend, homies, and I'll catch you on Tuesday. I'll have the latest on the legit Baby Rays, the Roid Landis comeback tour, and my hilarious takes on the ins and outs of this upcoming weekend in the NFL. So come on back. Besides, if you stop reading this on a regular basis, you're just gonna slip back into the dumbass abyss that you're brain has for so long calling home...

And I'm OUT like the Yanks...


sean said...

Cheap shot!

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