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Thursday, September 04, 2008

NFL Week 1 Picks


What it is, Intrawebbers? I'd like to say my schedule over the past few weeks has prevented me from getting to a lot of delicious stories, but then I'd just be lying. And seeing as you're my friends, and I don't wanna lie to you, I'll just come at you with the truth. I've been a little lazy. Yeah! So sue me. But seeing as I still feel I owe you some tasty treats before I dive into my NFL picks and the Sox drive for the playoffs, I've decided to give you a few notes off the top just to tide you over. What a nice guy, huh?...

-The Bengals cut Rudi Johnson. The Lions picked him up. The Lions waived Tatum Bell to make room for Johnson. Bell then stole Johnson's luggage...and it was caught on tape...although Bell says it was a misunderstanding. Well unless that was a misunderstanding that Tommy Lee and Pam Anderson were having on that boat, then I'm afraid Tatum is shit out of luck...and a job...Open junk, and insert foot, my brotha...

-I never came through with my college football preview, so here it is...

Heisman Winner: Tim Tebow, QB Florida
-He won last year, and although he'll be under the microscope more than ever in '08, he's got the skill and the team to pull the first back-to-backer since Archie Griffin...and then he'll have almost as impressive a pair as his arm candy. Here's a tip, sweetie. You can't sell any apples when you've got melons out front that you're givin' away for free...

National Champ: Ohio St.
-The Big 10 is beat, the BCS loves the Buckeyes and frosh QB phenom Terrelle Pryor is gonna be one of the year's most entertaining players to watch. Oh, and did I mention the Big 10 sucks? As usual, the Nation's best team will either be USC, or the top team in the SEC. But being the best doesn't necessarily get you a title these days, now does it?...

-Sarah Palin. Alaska Governor. Grandmother to a soon to be bastard child. And best of all, sportscaster!...

Ahhh. So this is when 2 out of 3 actually IS bad...Boom goes the dynamite!! And Bust goes the Republican ticket...

-The US Open is in full swing this week, and if the early round action has been any indication, we should be in for a stellar title match. Granted it will probably still end up being Rafa and Federer, but since when has that ever been a bad thing? Personally, in a step out of character, I'm hoping Britain's Andy Murray crashes the party, but I won't be holdin' my breath...

...and thank the Lord, I was able to somehow miss the Williams Brothers showdown on LIVE primetime TV. I can only assume that one of them won, the other lost, and everyone left the match craving adult diapers, Popeye's Chicken and Wayans Brother's movies....yet they had no idea why...


Red Sox Update
Overall: 82-57, 2nd in AL East by 3 games; 1st in Wild Card by 5 games

While the Sox continue playing their most inspired baseball of the season, the buzz around Fenway has mostly been about the incredible hot streak of one Dustin Pedroia. Not only has the little man's hot bat helped fill the void with injuries to Drew, Lowell, and the exodus of Manny, but his in-human month of August even has people around the Hub talking MVP...

So what's my take? Well, there's no doubt he's got the numbers to put him in contention (.333 / 17 HR / 75 RBI)), and the Sox looking playoff bound is always a plus. But I just can't say I see it. For one, up until about 10 days ago, the only guy on the Sox getting any mention for MVP was Kevin Youkilis, and for good reason. While Pedroia may be in the midst of an epic power surge, it's Youk's steady production and defensive flexibility that have made him, hands down, the MVP of this team. Again, not to say that Pedroia hasn't been just as important to the team's success, but when a player on your own team has you out-kicked in On Base Percentage (+.011), Slugging Percentage (+.060), homers (+7) and RBIs (+19), it's gonna be tough to convince a national panel of judges that he's actually the team's most valuable player...

So, while I think Pedroia has been as valuable as they come, it's probably just too close between he and Youk for either to get any serious chunk of votes. If I had a vote? I'd vote for Carlos Quentin (.288 / 36 / 100). His team's in it too, and he's got both Pedroia and Youkilis dead to rights in all the big time power categories. I know living in the NorthEast it's tough to imagine anyone being more important than Pedey and Youk, but that's what they said about Ortiz for MVP in '06 and Beckett for Cy Young in '07. Sometimes you get blinded by the guys you see every day. And while that doesn't mean they aren't outstanding players, it's just that you become blinded into thinking there could possibly be anyone more valuable. After all, it's your team these guys or helping. What could be more valuable than that?...

-While the Sox motor on, having now gone 20-9 since the start of August, those vaunted Tampa Bay Rays finally hit the home stretch with something to prove. And if their opening series against the Yankees is any indication, the Sox could be heading to the '08 post season as more than just a wild card squad. And how great is it being able to cheer for the Yankees with no realistic repercussions? It's a lot like watching a Sonic commercial. Sure, it makes you feel good inside to think about scarfin' down all their delicious items. But there's a piece of you that knows that in the end, all the delicious dreams in the world aren't gonna change the fact that you still curse those bastards out for advertising all the time and NEVER FREAKING BEING ANYWHERE CLOSE TO ME!!...

...at least the Rays and Sox will be playing 6 games together over the next 2 weeks. That'll be more like a Taco Bell commercial. And Lord knows I have no mixed feelings about watching those. Long live the Volcano Taco!...

OK kids, it's time to make you some money, while at the same time boosting my rep. This year, instead of just giving up my top 5 picks of each NFL week, I'm going for the gold and picking every game of every week. I figured no matter what picks I made, people were always asking me about other games anyway, so here's what you get...

Now normally I'd give you a reason why I picked a lot of the games, but seeing as I'm right on the heels of my '08 season preview, I figure what's the point. Before my preview I went through a picked every game of the season, and the picks below directly reflect the results from the preview's week 1 predictions...

As always, the lines I use are the ones available to me on the day I post, and I will not be held responsible for your luck should you somehow obtain a different spread. If you lose by a half point but I push? That's your problem, not mine...

Week 1 Picks
New York Giants (-4) vs Washington Redskins

New England Patriots (-10) vs Kansas City Chiefs

Cincinnati Bengals (-1) @ Baltimore Ravens

New York Jets (-3) @ Miami Dolphins

Houston Texans (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Atlanta Falcons (+3) vs Detroit Lions

Buffalo Bills (-1) vs Seattle Seahawks

Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) @ Tennessee Titans

New Orleans Saints (-3.5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) vs St. Louis Rams

Cleveland Browns (+5.5) vs Dallas Cowboys

San Diego Chargers (-9) vs Carolina Panthers

San Fransisco 49ers (+2.5) vs Arizona Cardinals

Indianapolis Colts (-9) vs Chicago Bears

Picking games in week 1 of the NFL season is a lot like chasing a large pepperoni pizza with an entire chocolate cake. At the time, you think you're making the best possible decision, but no sooner than 24 hours later, and all you're left with is a giant crater in you're colon...

OK maybe it's not a lot like that at all, but it is risky business. Unlike my user-friendly Monday Night picks...

Monday Night
Green Bay Packers (-3) vs Minnesota Vikings

Oakland Raiders (+3.5) vs Denver Broncos

A couple home teams with one getting points? Sounds too good to be true. But then again, that's probably because it is. Anyone else suddenly have a craving for a pepperoni pizza and a bucket full of peanut butter cup?...

Last Season: 65-47-6 (.577)

All Time: 186-124-16 (.595)

If you know sports betting, then you know I've got some chops. If you don't, and to you it just looks like I'm some chump struggling to keep my head above water? Well, you're right too. Hence why I don't bet on these things myself. I've just never felt right about letting a bunch of professional athletes rape my bank account on a weekly basis. Let's see them fork over a fancy dinner and an introduction to their parents. Then maybe we can talk bidness...

Oh, and the best part about my picks? I'm the only guy that will lose, and you'll actually hear about it. You hear right, amigos. I've told stories about losing at Foxwoods, and I'll share my NFL bad beats with you right here after every week's picks. After all, from I hear out there I'm rather unique when it comes to both. Nobody I talk to ever loses betting sports, and nobody I talk to has ever lost at Foxwoods. So at the very least, make sure to come back twice each week to check in on the proudest loser in the land. I figure if I can look good, and sound clever while doin' it, I might actually keep a few of you entertained and comin' back for more...

And seeing as I'm both tying up loose ends and taking care of NFL predictions, there's a little matter called the '08-'09 playoffs that I promised you last week...

2008 NFL Post Season Predictions
NFC Playoff Teams
1. Philadelphia Eagles (12-4)
2. Green Bay Packers (11-5)
3. New Orleans Saints (10-6)
4. San Fransisco 49ers (8-8)
5. Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
6. New York Giants (9-7)

NFC Championship Game
Dallas Cowboys over Philadelphia Eagles

-You say it's gonna be tough for Dallas to win 3 straight road games in the playoffs. I say I've seen weirder shit. And any team with TO, is capable of some weird shit. The Cowboys are the most talented team in the NFC, and while I expect them to turn on the jets come playoff time, and make a real exciting run to the Super Bowl...

AFC Playoff Teams
1. Indianapolis Colts (13-3)
2. New England Patriots (13-3)
3. San Diego Chargers (11-5)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
5. New York Jets (11-5)
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)

AFC Championship Game
New England Patriots over Indianapolis Colts

-You say I'm a homer for the Pats. I say only a fool goes against a team that went 18-1 last year reaching yet another Super Bowl. And yes, I know how vanilla my playoff teams look. But the guy that sticks the Ravens in the playoffs just to look bold and clever, is the same guy that, by his count, should own a full floor of suites at Foxwoods...

Super Bowl XLIII
New England Patriots 30 Dallas Cowboys 24

-There's a lot of questions swirling around the Patriots this season, but that's not gonna stop me from taking them for the 3rd straight year. They still have the best coach and the best QB in the bizz, and barring another miraculous performance like the one we saw last year, they should be able to extend their dynasty with their 4th title in 8 years. And hey, picking the Super Bowl winner before the season starts is a freakin' crap shoot. That being the case, I'm playin the strategy my man Mr. Richard Philipps taught me in Vegas when it comes to craps. When the 4-4 rolls out for the "hard" 8, it's always gonna come again, so make sure to bet it. Well my friends, this will be the 8th year in the Pats dynasty, and they'll be looking for their 4th Super Bowl. Even Tommy Lee can agree that's a hard 8...


Fantasy Update
Week 1: Hanyur's HamFighters vs Rally Monkey #1 (0-0)

So if the NFL season is booting up this week, that can only mean fantasy is here as well. For me, that means Sundays full of cursing out coaches, second guessing lineup changes, and attempting to literally will my team to victory. Not to mention the return to RoochNation of my little Yahoo Avatar logo (above). He's the man, and you will treat him as such, or he will smite you with his lightning bolt and menacing afro!

This year, for the 1st time in what seems like an eternity, I've managed to dodge a match up with Frosco in week 1 and will instead be taking on my main man from the MidWest, Brandon Bilfield. He's a crafty little monkey with an insatiable thirst for all things HTML and Celeland Browns football, but I'm the defending champ. It's an interesting clash, and should likely be akin to a Peter Griffin vs that dude in the chicken suit battle to the death...

Well OK, boys and girl(s), that's it for me. I hope my picks find you well, and I hope you all have a fantastic opening weekend. Personally, I'll be up in Maine until Sunday celebrating my friend Ray's wedding. I'll be swillin back booze, reliving old glories from high school, and most importantly, scouting out the tail in the hopes of landing a Mrs. Rooch Nation at some point in the near future. A tall order, I know (both for me, and her), but I task than I'm nevertheless more than willing to take on...

So until Tuesday, I say Peace in the Middle my friends. And I'm out like Flynt...

1 comments:

Anonymous said...

- "England's Andy Murray".

Erm... the man is Scottish - not English FFS!

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