NCAA Tournament Guide Part II

We're so close now I can taste it. With Championship Week in full swing, and Selection Sunday only hours away, it's as if the tournament is a tornado, that's just beginning to gain momentum. And if that's the case, then you can go ahead and label me the stereotypical "old woman in a rocking chair" that always seems to be caught up in those twisters. I'm fully enthralled with the action, I can't wait to get my hands on a bracket, and it's taking all my willpower not to try and predict my picks before they're even presented to me. What can I say? The NCAA Tournament is to me, what it would be for a SUDAFED truck to jack-knife in front of a meth cook's mobile home. Jackpot, baby! No more food stamps for this guy!! And NO more washin' my clothes in the swimmin' hole!...

That being the case, I couldn't help but start taking a look at some of the "facts" when it comes to making this year's picks. Like I just said, it's too early to make really strong predictions, but there are a lot of tendencies out there that are worth taking stock in before you take a pen to your bracket. It's a "sweet science", molding the perfect bracket, which is why it's important to have an intricate balance between obvious trends, and gut feeling.

That's why, in Part II of my 2008 NCAA Tournament guide, I'm providing you with my gut feelings and analysis, along with some solid stats from the last 3 years of the Big Dance. Why three years you ask? Well, 2004 was the last time I won an NCAA pool, something up until that point I had some with extreme regularity, and I hope by looking at these numbers I can see some of the reasons my brackets went to shit. Also, I think 3 years gives me a big enough sample group to show some broad trends, while being small enough that it still remains pretty specific to what's going on right now in college hoops. As always, you'll have to make your own choices when it comes to filling out your bracket, but it's my goal is to make sure you feel confident and informed when doing so. Not so informed that you can beat me, but just enough to make you think you have a shot. Muuahahahaha! Just kidding....or am I? Take a look, and judge for yourself....

The most important thing when it comes to winning a NCAA Tourney pool, is picking the right champion. You can win without it, but that's extremely rare. And you can lose with it, but that's a different issue all together. You're best shot at taking home the cakes, is picking the right team to cut down the nets, plain and simple. Here's a look at the teams that will need to be on your line labeled CHAMPION, if you're gonna be callin' yourself the #1 Stunna...


The Favorites
North Carolina
-They're the #1 team in the country, they're likely to be the #1 seed in the tourney, and they have the recently named #1 player in the country in Tyler Hansbrough. If that's not enough, I can make the argument that Hansbrough isn't even the best player on his own team. Yeah, that's how dangerous this team is. Anything short of a Final Four will be a disappointment for Roy Williams and the Heels, but don't think they don't feel they have a legit shot at the top prize...


UCLA
-If North Carolina is the most talented team in the Nation, then the Bruins are a clear #2. They have a great post player in Kevin Love, a great swing man in Russell Westbrook, and a great point guard in Darren Collison. Oh, and they have arguably the best coach in division 1, Ben Howland. They've played a lot of close games coming down the stretch, but I'd say that did more to build their character than it did to shake their confidence. They've been to 2 straight Final Four's, and I wouldn't bet against them making the 3rd time a charm...


These next teams are not quite elite, but these 3 squads also have more than enough firepower to cut down the nets. They're problem, is that unlike the top 2, these squads have been fatally exposed at one point or another during the season, which keeps me from having complete confidence in them. Basically, they'll need to pickup their game in order to get the job done, but it's something their perfectly capable of doing...


Next In Line...
Memphis
-Nobody should question the Tigers' talent, but a lot of people feel it necessary to always question their resume. They've run into trouble the last few years after reaching the Elite 8, but seeing as this is the most talented of those teams, I'd give them a great shot at reaching the Final Four. Once they make it there, anything can happen...


Tennessee
-Bruce Pearl is a great coach, and the Vols play great defense. Out of the first 4 teams I've mentioned, I think Tennessee would be the most likely to be upset early, yet I can easily see them in the National Final. They take a lot of loose shots, and they tend to get worked a little on the boards by the bigger teams, but if they can keep the game going at breakneck speed with their aggressive D, then they'll continue to mask those weaknesses and continue their winning ways...


Kansas
-I've been a staunch believer in the Jayhawks over the last few years, and that faith has cost be dearly to say the least. As usual, the talk has begun about how they're the most talented team in the country, and how they're once young team has matured, but I'm just having trouble buying into it for the billionth time. They are talented, for sure, and I wouldn't have them here it I didn't think they could win it all, I'm just telling you to beware. Not only have they been knocked out twice in the last 3 years in the first round by a double digit seed, but head coach Bill Self is 0-3 in Elite 8 games, losing once with Tulsa, Illinois and Kansas...


Next up, we have the "real good" teams, that are gonna need to play well and get some breaks in order to grab the title. I mean I'm pretty sure the champ is gonna come from the group of 5 teams above, but if one of these next 5 teams managed to make a memorable run, it wouldn't totally shock me...


I'd Believe It If I Saw It...
Georgetown
-The Hoyas only play in close games, which means you can't count them out to sneak their way to the Final Four. They bring back a lot of experience from the Final Four team from a year ago, and they're battle tested from the gauntlet that is the Big East regular season...


Duke
-Coach K is gonna get every last ounce of energy out of his boys AND Duke is gonna shoot so many 3's it'll make Antoine Walker blush. If they can stay hot, they can go a long way. If they go cold? Well, we all saw what VCU did to them in the first round last year. That's what makes Duke a scary team to play, and at the same time, a scary team to pick...


Texas
-Kevin Durant may be gone, but Texas probably has a better shot at cutting down the nets this year than they did when the one-year-wonder strutted around the Austin campus. They shared the Big XII regular season title with Kansas, and have some of the best wins of any team in the field. You like Texas if you think Damion James is going to emerge as a breakout player, but if you think it'll just be the DJ Augustin show, then it might just be a limited engagement. He might be the best PG in the country (ESPN 1st team All American), but if TJ Ford couldn't carry Texas to the title, then I don't see Augustin being able to do it either...


Xavier
-I've been a big fan of the Musketeers for most of the season, and that feeling translates to their tournament chances. Drew Lavender is an All American type player, and Sean Miller is probably the best "unknown" coach in the country. They might need a favorable draw to make it to the Final Four, but this is another team that I wouldn't bet against in any single game, which is why I really like their chances...


Stanford
-The Cardinal finished second in the Pac 10, so we know they can ball. The question with them, is whether or not they can control the pace of the game. If they're forced to run up and down, they won't be able to hang. If the game stays in the half court, though, the Lopez twins will be able to dominate the paint, and find Anthony Goods and Mitch Johnson to make some plays on the perimeter. The lost to a good Louisville squad as an 11 seed in '07 , and I expect that experience to help them get through the first few rounds a lot easier this time around...


This next group of teams could just as easily bust out in the first round as they could make a run to San Antonio. More or less, I feel these teams have the general ingredients to make a title contender, but haven't necessarily put all those pieces together up to this point of the season. If they can flip the switch, they'll be really dangerous, but it's gonna take a nice little leap of faith to keep them moving forward in your bracket...


Darkhorse Title Contenders
Notre Dame
-You're eyes tell you they can't be good because they have so many white dudes on the floor, but the Irish are gonna be a tough match up for virtually every team in the field. Harangody and Kurz provide the beef inside, McAlarney launches the 3's, and Jackson keeps them steady at the point. In a nutshell, you can hang your hat on virtually every aspect of the Irish's game. They're a complete team. They might not be the most talented, which may in the end be their downfall, but they have enough to give even the best team's a tough fight if they don't bring their A game for 40 minutes...


USC
-You always have to be on the look out for the breakout player that could carry his team to the Final Four a la Dwayne Wade in 2003. OJ Mayo could be that guy. He was highly touted, struggled at times this year, but is playing his best ball of the season at the most opportune time. It doesn't hurt that he's got a good supporting staff and a solid coach, but the Trojans are no better than a Sweet 16 team if Mayo doesn't bring the funk night after night...


UCONN
-They have a 7 footer who's not a total stiff, a coach with 2 National titles, and a point guard that on some nights looks like one of the best in the country. That's the key. If AJ Price can play at the star level that he has at times this season, he could definitely lead the Huskies to the promise land. Sure, losing to West Virginia in the Big East tournament wasn't ideal for Connecticut, but trust me, this team still has the talent to raise some Hell...


Wisconsin
-Call the Badgers the poor man's Georgetown Hoyas. There's no real star on this team, which provides their greatest strength and their greatest weakness. I know they're gonna play smart on offense, and solid on defense. I'm just not so sure who's gonna take the big shots with the clock winding down, and the game on the line...


Aside from picking the right champ, it's important to pick out some solid upsets. We can't look at match ups because the bracket isn't out, but here's a look at a few of the lesser known teams that could be poised to do the damn thing in the first few rounds. These are the teams that have been to the dance before, know what to expect and could be primed to make a run on opening weekend...


Little Guys With Big Experience
Oral Roberts
-This group is in the tourney for the third year in a row, but are still in search of that elusive win. I picked them last year as a 14 to upset Washington St., and they let me down. If you're thinking of picking them just so you can write "Oral Rob" on your bracket, I would have to advise against it. It's things like that make it hard for you to win a pool for 3 straight years...


George Mason
-Do I even need to warn you about these fools? I said right here in 2006 that they didn't deserve to even be in the field, and then they went on their memorable run to the Final Four. Don't let that one mistake doubt my credibility, and don't let what this team did 2 years ago cloud your judgment...


Virginia Commonwealth
-As mentioned in regards to Duke, VCU won their first round game as an 11 seed a year ago, and have arguably a better team this time around. Guard Eric Maynor was the star in that one, and coming off a season where he averaged nearly 18 a game, expect him to be hungry for more...


Davidson
-The Wildcats nearly pulled the trick on Maryland last year as a 13 seed, and while they should have a much better seed this year, look for them to be gunnin' hard for at least the Sweet 16. We all know Stephen Curry can score (25.1 ppg), but I was also impressed when he was shut down in the Bracket Buster on the road against Winthrop, and Davidson was still able to pull out a 13 point win. I still think they bit off more than they could chew with their monstrous pre conference schedule, but I also think it could very well be time for all that experience to start kickin' in...


Butler
-Just because they've been ranked in the top 15 for most of the year, doesn't mean the Bulldogs have any one's respect. Most people I talk to dismiss Butler rather quickly, and while I don't think they're this elite squad, I think counting them out could be a big mistake. Remember, this is basically the same team that was beaten in last year's tourney by the Florida Gators, and it's tough to judge how far they could have gone in another portion of the bracket. Mike Green and AJ Graves are in the top 10 when it comes to back court tandems, and that alone should be good enough for a 2nd straight Sweet 16 appearance...


This last group of teams represent another "type" of team that seems to do well come tournament time. These are teams that may not have been "great" at any time this season, but have quietly played enough good competition that they care capable of hanging with, and beating, any team they face in the early rounds. Basically, they won't be intimidated because they've played in plenty of big games already this year. In games surrounded by so much hype, it's important to believe you "belong", and not be overwhelmed by the opposition, or the magnitude of the stage they're playing on. UNLV and Vanderbilt were those teams a year ago, and these are my candidates this time around...


Layin Low.....
Washington St.
-I had the Cougars in and around my top 10 for most of the year, but as they struggled a bit down the stretch, they began to fall out of favor. That being said, they're tested tough from their battles in the Pac 10, they play great defense and they have solid guard play in Derrick Lowe, Kyle Weaver, and sharpshooting Taylor Rochestie. There's a reason they were a pre season top 5 pick, and if they get hot from outside, then they'll be a tough out for even the best teams in the land...


BYU
-Thanks to being in the Mountain West Conference, the fighting Mormons probably managed the 25 quietest wins in the country. They have 3 guys scoring more than 13 points a game, led by juniors Trent Plaisted and Lee Cummard, probably the best duo in division 1 you've never heard of. Both averaged more than 15 points and 6 boards a game this year, and at 6'11" and 6'7" respectively, the provide great athleticism and playmaking ability both on the wings and in the post. Cummard is especially versatile, shooting better than 44% from 3, while averaging more than a block and a steal a game. They fell in the first round last year in an 8/9 game to Xavier, but if they can avoid shooting themselves in the foot at the foul line (63%) I see them being a dangerous team that could advance as far as the Elite 8...


Pittsburgh
-Jamie Dixon is a great coach, and DaJuan Blair is one of the best freshmen in the country. Combine that with their newly found confidence after their OT win over Louisville and the Panthers could be mighty dangerous. They return a few pieces from their Sweet 16 team of a year ago, and if Ronald Ramon can catch fire, then they could be making a repeat appearancein 2008...


West Virginia
-If Joe Alexander continues to play out of his tree, it's going to be tough to bet against the Moutaineers in any first round game they play. Dude is averaging 29.8 points per game over the last 5, helping push WVU into the field, and if he keeps it up he could help land Bob Huggins in the Sweet 16. I'm not high on Huggy as a tourney coach after all those years underachieving with Cincy, but even he can't deny Alexander if the kid continues to light it up...


Gonzaga
-It's hard to imagine Gonzaga being underestimated after all the March magic they've produced in the past, but they're recent run of tourney failures has left a sour taste on many a tongue. This year's squad let St. Mary's bear the cross of the WCC for most of the year, despite being the better team, and are now primed to make their traditional March noise. They're conference tourney final loss to San Diego probably slid them a little further back in the pack, but I still think they have an advantage over many teams when it comes to talent and coaching...


Mississippi St.
-They Bulldogs are the one team in the SEC that nobody seems to be talking about, and that usually means one of two things. 1) They'll be bounced in the first round to a chorus of "I told you they sucked" OR 2) They'll make a run to the Elite 8 and give credence to the fact that I believed the SEC was one of the best conferences for the entire season...


Utah St.
-They still might need the WAC's autobid to make the tourney, but if they do come away with that title, they'll officially be hotter than Hansel. Since dropping 3 straight road games in early February, Utah St. has run off 6 straight wins by an average of almost 19 points. That run not only put them into a 4 way tie atop the conference standings, but it's also put them in prime position to be the perfect team to pull a first round upset. 3 point asassin, Jaycee Caroll, made over 100 this year from beyond the arc, and converts at a mind boggling 50.2%! Yeah, good luck trying to keep him under wraps...


St. Joesph's
-They beat Xavier just a week ago, and are probably playing just as good as any non-elite team in the country right now despite not being entrenched in the field of 64. Senior Pat Calathes (whose little brother Nick plays for Florida) will be a real tough match up for any squad. At 6'10" he provides a solid post presence, but at the same time is better than 40% from 3 point range, meaning the opposing D will need to follow him wherever he goes. Phil Martelli's crew has all 5 starters averaging 10+ points per game, and 4 of them grabbing 4 or more rebounds. They're balanced, they're well coached, and they're peaking at the right time...



Granted, there are teams that didn't make any of my lists that are still gonna win games, but the ones I did touch on are the squads that I feel peeps needed a heads up about. Teams like Indiana, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Drake and Marquette are also teams that you need to keep an eye on, they just aren't teams I feel fall into these crucial, bracket-shaping, categories.


Now like I said off the top, the tournament is as much a numbers game as it is an athletic competition. I referred to it as a "sweet science", if you recall, where the best bracket will come from a balance of gutty picks, and outright facts. That being said, here's the breakdown of some of the trends I uncovered from over the last 3 years. Follow these trends at your own risk, but make sure to double check them when you're thinkin' about picking that 15 seed to go to the Elite 8. Some things just make sense, while others, tend to defy logic. It's you're job to figure which is which, and I'm here to lend a helping hand. Here's some of what I've uncovered...

Picking the upsets in the first round are key, but it's important to weigh the likelihood of the upset against the impact it might have on your bracket if you're wrong...

Each Seed's Record in Round 1
1: 12-0
2: 12-0
3: 10-2
4: 10-2
5: 9-3
6: 7-5
7: 9-3
8: 5-7
9: 7-5
10: 3-9
11: 5-7
12: 3-9
13: 2-10
14: 2-10
15: 0-12
16: 0-12


Breakdown
-I take a few things away from these numbers. Firstly, I noticed that while many people talk about the 5 vs 12 and 7 vs 10 match ups as the most likely to see an upset, the better seed in those games are 18-6 over the last 3 years. On the flip side, the 11 and 9 seeds are dead even at 12-12 with their "better" counterparts over the same stretch. Aside from the obvious schism when it comes to the 10 seed, this list will basically tell us what we all know to already be true. The top 5 seeds hardly ever lose in the first round, but all the other match ups are essentially crap shoots. We all want to sprinkle in those big seed upsets, but remember not picking one of those will probably hurt you less than taking a huge leap of faith with an obvious underdog...


Lookin' for that ultimate Cinderella? Well they aren't as uncommon as you might think....or are they?...

Double Digit Seeds to Reach the Sweet 16
2005: (13) Wisconsin-Milwaukee + (10) North Carolina St.

2006: (13) Bradley + (11) George Mason

2007: none


Breakdown
-After George Mason's run to the Final Four in '06, all the talk was about how even the talent across division 1 hoops was. A year later, 7 out of the top 8 seeds made the Elite 8, and not one double digit seed made it to the Sweet 16. It's probably a safe bet that at least one of these puppies will make it that far this year, but don't go nutty by putting 4 or more of these guys through to round 3. Remember, pushing too many of these teams forward in the early rounds can often cost you big time down the road in terms of points...


As I mentioned before, most "Cinderella" runs stop at the Sweet 16. Don't believe me? Well judge for yourself...

Elite 8 Appearances by Seed
1: 9
2: 6
3: 3
4: 2
5: 1
6: 1
7: 1
11: 1

*8-10 and 12-16 have zero total appearances


Breakdown
-Interesting note here. Every #2 seed in the last 3 years has made it out of the first round, but only 6 have managed to make the Elite 8. Granted, that's the second highest % outside of the #1 seeds, but it still comes off as a little disconcerting. What this list does tell me, is that it's likely to see about one 3 and one 4 seed in this year's Elite 8. I know it gets dicey when you're trying to put seeds and NOT teams in certain position, but I'd say it's all in how you want to look at it. I don't like making picks based on strictly numbers, but I like the fact that the numbers and the history back me up when I'm pushing a #3 seed into the Final Four. Figures lie and liars figure, I get it. But look at this more as finding a happy medium than trying to fit into an ever-changing mold...


This last trend looks at how the major conferences have been represented in the last 3 Final Fours...

# of Final Four Teams by Conference
Big 10: 3
SEC: 3
Big East: 2
Pac 10: 2
ACC: 1
Colonial: 1

*the Big XII and Conference USA haven't had any teams reach the Final Four in the last 3 years.


Breakdown
-Out of all the trends I've looked at today, I must admit this one appears to be the least relevant. What it does tell me, is that no matter how much people think the landscape of the game might be changing, the big boys are still the ones that do the dancing when all the chips are down...


So there you have it! I've given you the title contendenders, the possible Cinderella's and teams that might look normal but have the potential to be flat out dangerous. If that wasn't enough, I even gave you a bunch of numbers that will help you push those #3 and #4 seeds through to the Final Four, while at the same time not allowing that #12 seed to romp all the way to San Antonio. What you decide to do with this information, is up to you, but if you use MY guide as YOUR guide, I bet you'll feel better about your picks than you ever have before. Note, I said you'd feel better, NOT do better. So don't come cryin' to me if you happen to lose your pool.


Most importantly, I hope this stuff will help you make the picks that will make the tournament the most enjoyable for you. I know it's fun to win these things, but the real fun comes in the excitement and the endless possibilities that this thing provides. It's a month long celebration, bitches! So go out there and win yourself some loots!!


Speaking of. I'm panicking again as I do every year because very few of you have signed up for my NCAA pool. Every year I invite a ton of people and give everyone fair warning. Yet every year a bunch of you tools come up to me during or after the tourney and say (often drunkenly) "Dude why didn't you do a tourney pool this year?". So help me God. This year, I'm reserving the right, right now, to give a swift elbow to the throat of anyone that pulls that trick on me this season. I'll have this info again on Teusday when I break down the actual bracket, but here again is the info to gain access to my NCAA Tournament pool. Hope to see you there...

website: http://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/t1
private group name: Kelvin Samsung
league ID: 9283
password: glenriversmd


OK I'm outta here to fill my head with some more college hoops, my stomach with some fine hops and barley, and my lungs with......the freshest air the East coast has to offer?? Well you know how I roll, so make sure to get at me. The anticipation is killing me, but we're only a few days away!! Wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!....