NCAA Tournament Guide Part I

Championship Week is in full swing, kids, and that can only mean that the NCAA Tournament is right around the delicious corner. I know it's true too, because bids are being handed out to schools we've never heard of, and I'm starting to itch my arm and grind my teeth like Keith Richards that time he had to ride in that NO SMOKING elevator for 45 seconds.

For this year's tourney, I've decided to provide all my loyal readers with a guide that should help them in making informed decisions when it comes time to fill out their bracket. I'll admit that I'm holding back some of the extra juicy and insightful shit to protect my own bracket, but for the most part, this guide is a direct link to the college basketball genius that is Rooch, and should give you a good idea as to who I think has what it takes to do some damage over the next month. I hope you enjoy...

Here are the squads that have already punched their ticket to the Big Dance...


We're In Like Flynt...
Austin Peay (24-10) Ohio Valley Conference
-Their 6th rated strength of schedule out of conference may impress some, but that # represents who the Governors played, not who they beat. In truth, their biggest wins all season came against Belmont back in November and December. They may have 5 guys averaging 11 or more points per game, but this just isn't a team I feel will be able to pull off an upset as a likely 13 or 14 seed...


Winthrop (22-11) Big South Conference
-The Eagles were able to make some noise last year, beating 6th seeded Notre Dame in the first round, and given the right match up, could make some noise again in this year's bracket. Their wins this year, conference strength, and style of play might not point to them playing Cinderella in '08, but never count out a team with tournament experience...


Drake (28-4) Missouri Valley Conference
-The Bulldogs got their first Valley crown since 1971, and are now headed to the Big Dance as a likely 5 seed or better. Good news for the Bulldogs, is that there's been a Missouri Valley team in the Sweet 16 for the past 3 years in a row. It also doesn't hurt that they're 9-3 in their last 12, and 8-2 this year against the RPI top 100. Bad news is, their win @ Butler on Bracket Buster weekend is by far and away their best win all season long. Part of me wants to be down on the Dogs because the Valley hasn't been up to par this season, but the other part likes their balanced starting 5 and their ability to score almost 75 points a game. This team could make the Elite 8, or get bounced in the first round. I know it's the same story every year, but with this squad in particular, it's all about the match up...


Cornell (22-5) Ivy League
-We're playin' hoops, not buildin' rockets. If they're lucky enough to avoid the 64/65 game, they'll be promptly bounced in the first round by one of the Nation's perennial powers. Again, thanks for workin' on the cures to all those deadly diseases, but leave the bball to the schools that spend your "education" budget on booze, strippers, and the best drugs money can buy...


Belmont (25-8) Atlantic Sun Conference
-Like I said, Austin Peay's 2 biggest wins were against Belmont, and I think "Peay" has about as good a shot at winning a tourney game as Mike Greenberg has of growing an actual set of male testicles. When that metro breaks a sweat, then Belmont will win a game. So don't hold your breath...


San Diego (21-13) West Coast Conference
-If you're team is on the bubble (Syracuse!) then you're not pumped for the San Diego Torero's right about now. With their upset of Gonzaga in the WCC finals (their 2nd conference tourney title in the last 10 years....guess who has the other 8?) San Diego assured that the league will get 3 bids to the dance. While it's bad news for the boys on the bubble, I don't see SD's inclusion into the tourney as bad news for anyone else. Sure they beat Gonzaga and St. Mary's in their conference tournament, but the fact that it was held on their home court just isn't doin' it for me. If anything, this game showed some chinks in the Gonzaga armor, rather than helping San Diego state their case as a team to watch in round 1. To my point, San Diego went 0-6 this year against teams ranked between 50-150 in the RPI, and were 3-2 in their last 5 games before their tournament run. Just looks a little too fluky for my tastes...


Siena (22-10) Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
-To be honest, I was pumped for Rider to do some work in the NCAA tournament, so now I'm just bitter that Siena beat them for the MAAC title. Truth is, though, that with a 3 headed scoring monster averaging more than 48 points a game, the Saints have just as good a shot as any mid-major of pulling a first round upset. They light it up at better than 38% from 3, and while they give up over 70 points a game, they've shown they can hang, as they're usually good for nearly 78 a game themselves. If they can get in a game with a team that wants to run with them, they could be in business. But if they get matched up with a tough defensive team in round 1, it could be a quick trip for the boys from Loudonville, NY...


George Mason (23-10) Colonial Athletic Association
-This ain't the George Mason from '06 that ran to the Final Four as an 11 seed, but that doesn't mean this team can't win a few and make a run to the Sweet 16. Coach Jim Laraneaga is back, and he brings with him Will Thomas and Folarin Campbell, who both played integral parts on the '06 squad. They're another team that's tough to get a read on because they haven't really played anyone all season long, but I think we all remember what happened the last time this team was counted out and left for dead. Seeing as they'll probably end up a double digit seed, they're gonna need a good match up for me to push them through to the second round, but that's saying a lot for a team that based on their resume, wouldn't normally get a sniff of a first round W...


Davidson (26-6) Southern Conference
-They played the 8th toughest schedule in the country out of conference, but didn't win any of those tough games. They also come into the tourney as the hottest team in the nation, having won their last 22 games in a row. But again, who the Hell have they beaten?! I know the Wildcats impressed in the pre-season with tough games against UNC, Duke and UCLA, but that was 3 months ago. I know Stephon Curry can score with the best of them at more than 25 a game, but I wonder if they weren't good enough to beat any good teams before, why does beating up on a bunch of scrubs all season make them any more ready to beat them now? Granted they'll be facing lesser teams than Duke, UCLA and UNC in the first few rounds, but I just wonder if even those "lesser" power conference teams will give the SoCon champ the same issues that the big boys did earlier in the year...

Now these next teams aren't technically "IN" yet, but are playing they're best ball at the right time of year...


Peaking at the Right Time...
Kentucky (18-11)
-After a lousy start to the year, the Cats have used their impressive SEC run to move them from bubble-boys, to tourney locks. Bad early season losses to Gardner Webb and George Washington, have been erased from memory thanks to a win over Tennessee and a 12-4 record in conference play. They might not be as dangerous as they could be after losing second leading scorer Patrick Patterson about two weeks ago, but going 2-1 in his absence has shown they still should be OK without him. The biggest thing the Cats have going for them, is their loaded with talented seniors, and they get great grades when it comes to the "eye" test. Their athleticism, size and experience are going to be problems for most teams in the field, is just consistency that might end up biting them in the ass. Be on the look out for sophomore big man, Perry Stevenson. With Patterson out, the lanky 6'9" sophomore has stepped up to the tune of 11 points and 10 rebounds a game, up from the 6 + 5 he'd been averaging all season long...


USC (20-10)
-Their weekend win over Stanford stamped their ticket, but it's this teams potential that has me jumpin' on their bandwagon like I was from...well...southern Califronia! Heralded freshman OJ Mayo brings the funk from the outside, while senior big man Taj Gibson brings the noise from the block, making this Sweet 16 team from a year ago even more dangerous this time around. If the Trojans can avenge their only loss in the last 6 games when they play Arizona St. in the Pac 10 tourney, they'll really make their case as a team to be reckoned with. But even if they lose, they have the talent and the coaching to make trouble for any team they might meet in the first 3 rounds of the Big Dance...


Georgetown (25-4)
-I started signing their praises last week, and I'm realizing that I may have been late to the G'Town party, but I haven't missed it. Sure most of the top shelf booze is gone, but there are still some jello shots left, and I hear a rumor there's a chick in the john givin' out free Portuguese Dufflebags....whatever those are...Georgetown controls the pace of games, which is death to most opponents, and if Roy Hibbert is scoring nearly 17 a game, like he has over the last 5, then that means bad news for almost everyone in the field. I know, Hibbert's a stiff. That's why I'm sayin' if he's dumpin' in 17 a game while ripping down 7 boards, then it's gonna free up room for guys like Wallace, Freeman, Ewing, Summers, and Doc River's white son to make a lot of plays. With the Hoyas, it's all about the guard play and the defense, and both seem to be clicking right now at the most opportune time possible...


Wisconsin (26-4)
-The Big 10 is down, but Wisconsin is legit. I know those two statements don't totally jive with each other, but the fact that the Badgers have perched themselves atop the league standings, and won 7 in a row to close out the year, has to give them a clear edge over the rest of the conference. Let's also consider the fact that Wisco got bounced in the second round last year as a #2 seed, by Sweet 16 Cinderella, UNLV and Lon Kruger. You can bet this team hasn't forgotten about that, and that experience, combined with their tough D, could make them the one Big 10 team to watch during the run to the Final Four...


South Alabama (26-5)
-I know the National media better than they know themselves, so lemme give you the heads up on Southern Alabama. A lot of people are going to pick them as a chic Sweet 16 possibility, and for good reason. The Sun Belt regular season champs seem poised for an at-large big even though they didn't snag their conference tourney bid, thanks in large part to wins over Mississippi St. and Western Kentucky, along with close losses to Vandy and Ole Miss. They sit 26th in the latest RPI rankings, which is amazing for a small conference school, and at 3-3 against the RPI top 100, they've proven they can hang with a lot of team's that are gonna make up this 65 team field. Now the dilemma is, do you take the trendy pick, or don't cha? Barring something major changing my mind, I can already tell ya which way I'm goin'...


Memphis (30-1)
-Losing to Tennessee certainly wasn't ideal, but don't look at it as the end of any March dreams for Calipari and his Tigers. They haven't lost since they were nipped by the Vols, they have more NBA talent than any other team, they have an experienced coach and they've been in the Elite 8 for 2 years straight. I know even I was saying the Tigers were overrated after their home loss to Tennessee, but being the 5th best team in the Nation (where I had them ranked) still means you have a great shot at making the Final Four, doesn't it?...


While those teams are lighting it up and making their case for higher seeds, this next batch is a group that I feel is headed in reverse. They might have strong resumes and big dreams, but if they don't flip the switch soon, they could be one-and-done on the tournament's opening weekend...

Backin' Their Way In...
Michigan St. (24-7)
-I haven't been high on the Big 10 all year, and Michigan St. is no exception. I have no idea who they're going to go to in crunch time (Drew Neitzel or Raymar Morgan), and while I respect Tom Izzo as a coach, I just don't see this team making any sort of run. Their computer profile is impressive, but going 7-5 over their last 12, including a loss to Penn State, isn't exactly instilling confidence...


Indiana (25-6)
-See Above. I'm not thrilled about their mid season coaching change, and they seem like a team that peaked about a month ago. Eric Gordon and DJ White are great players, but will that be enough to grab them a few March wins? Maybe. But I can't say their play of late has exactly helped change that "maybe" to a definitive "yes". Getting blown out by Michigan St., and losing on the road to Penn St. certainly isn't helping their cause, let's just put it that way. All the talent is there to make a run to the Final Four, I just don't see them as a team that's able to flip the switch and make that kind of run...


Vanderbilt (25-6)
-I was really high on the Commodores (and no, that's not a type of weed!) right around the time they beat Tennessee, but ever since they have been a little disappointing. Maybe that's a bit of a stretch, but with nothing but big time games left to come this year, it hasn't exactly been encouraging to watch Vandy drop 2 of their last 3, and needing OT for that only win. Sure, one of the losses was in OT too, and they were both on the road, but these just aren't positive developments. If they can make a run to the SEC finals, then maybe I'll chalk those games up to "character building", but until then, it looks like this is another squad who's best ball might be behind them...


Texas A&M (22-9)
-The Aggies dipped in and out of my top 10 for much of the early season, but their play of late leaves them in danger of dipping right out of the field of 65 alltogether. They're 2-5 in their last 7, and that stretch includes home losses to both Nebraska and Oklahoma St. Pretty gross. They still have their 22-9 record to fall back on, but if they don't grab a win in the Big XII tourney, this talented squad could possibly miss the tournament all together...


Marquette (22-8)
-First off, this isn't a knee jerk reaction to the Eagles getting slammed at the Carrier Dome. Truth be told, I haven't really been a Marquette fan from this season's opening tip. I respect the Big East, and I respect Tom Crean as a head coach, but I just don't see why this team should be feared in a one-and-done scenario. In fact, to find the last "quality" win the Eagles have, you need to go all the way back to a 26 point win over Notre Dame on January 12th. Yeah. I know they nearly beat Georgetown about a week ago in OT, but it's those losses that speak to their inconsistency. Basically, they've played their best ball, and they can't be trusted in big spots, both of which are key ingredients for turning yourself from big conference power, to early round upset victim...


And Then There's UCLA...
If you know what to make of this weekend's effort from the Bruins, then by all means clue me in. Their record will tell you they went 2-0 in close games against Stanford and Cal, while those watching the games will tell you both W's were gifted to the boys from Westwood by the officials. Hmmmm. On one hand, I wanna give them credit for hangin' in there in close games, and being able to come back quickly from large deficits. On the other hand, I wanna know why the most talented team in the country is struggling with lesser teams on a consistent basis? I guess this wouldn't such an issue if the Bruins weren't my current front runner for National Champion, but can I trust them to be there if they keep having to come back in the final minutes and get help from the zebras? Not likely. Hopefully they can throw together some solid games in the Pac 10 tournament, or I might be looking towards Tobacco Road for my new championship contender...


With the games coming fast and furious all this week, a lot of this is subject to change. So make sure and check back here on Friday, for Part II of my NCAA Tournament Guide. It will be my last post before the field of 65 is released, and it's gonna be packed with all the info you're gonna need to make the picks that bring home the bacon...

And I hate to end on a sad note, but sometimes it's gotta be done. My career aspirations took a big hit yesterday around 1 in the afternoon, when I was told that my station, 99.7 FM and 790 AM The Score in Providence, would be undergoing a format change. That's right, in a matter of minutes, I went from being an up-and-comer with a great opportunity in front of me, to a lowly producer at a station that may or may not be already blasting the best of the 50's, 60's and 70's. Now if you think this setback is going to end my dreams, you better think again. A door may have closed on this pimp, but as we speak I am in search of the window that has undoubtedly opened. I knew this was the nature of the business I chose, and no matter how cruel and unusual the termination of the station was, I'm not gonna let it get me down. So we we're run out by the big bad boys from Boston. So what?! I'm a man on a mission, kids, and if you think something like this is gonna make me re-think me plan of sports-world domination, then you might not know me so well after all. It was a great run at The Score, but I'm movin' on to bigger and better things.

The one thing I will need from you from this point forward, is support. I know all of you out there believe in me and my undeniable skills, and I look forward to proving all of us right as I make my march towards the top of the sports radio mountain.

Catcha on Friday...