Friday, October 05, 2007

Week 5 Picks...The Mistake Meets It's Maker

Usually, in any given week, it's tough for me to actually find 5 games I "like" as my 5 picks of the week. This week, however, is a refreshing exception. Now, I still instituted my new rule of not picking any teams I lost with the previous week, and I still managed to find 6 games this week that I view as "locks." If you think that's good news, you'll love to hear that I'm taking FIVE home favorites, and only one road underdog, the 3-1 Detroit Lions. I know, the normalcy of the whole situation scares me too, and the fact that I'm even thinking that the Lions are going to win on the road makes me question my own sanity, but check it out, I have some "logic" to back me up...

First up, there's the Pats and their college like 16.5 number at home against the Browns. Now, granted, the Browns are much improved offensively, but riddle me this. If the Browns defense gave up 5 touchdown passes to Carson Palmer, and the Patriot defense held Palmer and friends to 13 points on their own turf, then shouldn't Cleveland perform similarly, if not worse, against the vaunted Pats O and D? That's what I thought. So far at least, thanks to the odds makers, there hasn't been a safer expression than "Gimmie the Pats, and the points." Besides, at the very least you gotta think good ole Billy the Cheat would love to stick to his old team, and one of his former soldiers, Romeo Crennel. At the same time, there's nothin' Cleveland fans would love to do more than stick it to their former head honcho. Too bad for them, none of Bill's former Brownies are still around, so it looks as if the proper motivation might by lacking in the "revenge" department. They'll be no mistake by any lake in Massachusetts this weekend. Pats roll...

Next game, has the New Orleans Saints, coming off a bye week to host the tumultuous Carolina Panthers. Sean Payton's had 2 weeks to prepare, and with the Panther offense still struggling to find any sort of rhythm, I really like the Saints chances to at least seemingly right the ship, and get a much needed home win. For my third choice, I'm still goin' with the Falcons....which is to say I still think they're the worst team in the NFL. If they burn me this week, I might jump off their backs a little. But if the Chiefs don't suck, and the Browns don't suck, then it has to be someone, right? Vince Young and the Titan D should have more than enough to keep Joey "the Pig" Harrington at bay...

Now the most intriguing match up of the week could very well be the dual home game known as Giants/Jets. Both squads answered a lot of questions the last few weeks, and this game should go a long way in determining if either team has an actual shot at the playoffs. Eli has looked real good so far this year, no matter how bad Chris Mortensen thought his injury was, and Chad...well Chad should be on the next plane to see Dr. James Andrews. He just looks like he's putting his all into every throw, and they just aren't going anywhere! Both defenses are still a little shaky, but I like Eil to hit Shockey or Plax for multiple scores on the way to a nice win for the G-Men...

Another team I like in a big way, is the Indianapolis Colts. I know the Bucs are much improved (mostly because I predicted they would be), but Indy is the next best thing to the Pats right now (sorry Cowboy fans), so you have to like them until they let you down. In a perfect world, Peyton keeps that radar lock on Dallas Clark for another week, but either way, that receiving corps, and RB Joseph Addai should have little trouble finding the end zone 3-4 occasions...

Last, and more often than not least, we have the lone road selection, and lone underdog selection, the Detroit Lions. The Skins are also coming off a bye this week, much like the Saints, but that doesn't worry me as much here. Not to say Joe Gibbs isn't a great game planner, but I just don't think his team matches up very well. The Skins are gonna try and control the clock and the ball with their running game, but with a banged up Clinton Portis, they might not be as effective as they would like. Even if he were healthy, their style still puts them in position to have to score touchdowns more often than not against a high octane Detroit offense that's really clicking. Even if Washington pulls this one out, I don't see 'em doin' it by more than a field goal, so I'm takin' the skinny 4, and runnin' with it!

Week 5 Picks
New England Patriots (-16.5) vs Cleveland Browns
New Orleans Saints (-3) vs Carolina Panthers
Tennessee Titans (-6.5) vs Atlanta Falcons
New York Giants (-3) vs New York Jets
Indianapolis Colts (-9) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Detroit Lions (+4) @ Washington Redskins

Monday Night
Dallas Cowboys (-10) @ Buffalo Bills

*I'd be lying if I didn't let you know that I originally had the Bills and the points as my Monday night pick. I know I took a crack at the Cowboys earlier, but in fact, I actually do think they're a real good team, I just can't say I'm thrilled by the match up. It's a road game, it's against a team from a superior conference (let's not kid ourselves, right?), and it's a team with a lot of speed that's capable of making big plays. I still see the Boys pullin' this one out, but you have to figure Tony Romo is due for at least one "decent" game, at some point, right? Eh, even if it is this game, I still think Big D can squeak out a 12 point win or so.

Last Week: 3-3-0

Overall: 10-12-2 (.460)

NCAA Top 25 Picks
(1) LSU (-8) vs (9) Florida

(2) USC (-40) vs Stanford

(23) Purdue (+7) vs (4) Ohio St.

(5) Wisconsin (+2.5) @ Illinois

(6) South Florida over Florida Atlantic

(7) Boston College (-20) vs Bowling Green

(19) Texas (+11) vs (10) Oklahoma

(12) Georgia (+1) @ Tennessee

(13) West Virginia (-26.5) @ Syracuse

(22) Clemson (-5.5) vs (15) Virginia Tech

(16) Hawaii (-39) vs Utah St.

(25) Nebraska (+7) @ (17) Missouri

(18) Arizona St. (-9) @ Washington St.

(20) Cincinnati (-3.5) @ (21) Rutgers

(24) Kansas St. (-3) vs Kansas

Last Week: 9-13-0

Overall: 58-44-1 (.568)


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