When I started making my picks this week, I liked how a lot of them followed trends I like to use. You know, like a home team that's only a slight favorite, or a road dog getting a ton of points. Well, after all was said and done, I ended up with 4 road favorites, and a home team (the Colts) favored by almost double digits against arguably one of the best defenses in the league. Sketchy at best, I know, but I do have some logic behind my selections. The Packers are rolling, and the Vikings are offensively inept. Advantage, Pack. The Broncos are inconsistent at best, so far this year, and if they lost at home to Jacksonville, I can't say I like their chances on the road against Peyton and his plethora of weapons. Advantage, Colts. Bills suck. Advantage Jets. Falcons suck, advantage Texans. Nah, it's really more like I feel the Texans are semi-legit, and Matt Schaub wants to stick it to his old team. Besides, don't the Falcons start Joey Harrington? My final pick of the week is the surging Philadelphia Eagles over the G-Men @ Giant Stadium. I was impressed that the Giants were able to hold on last week to beat Washington with a goal line stand, but that seemed more like Gibbs and crew blowing it, than the boys in Blue winning it if you ask me. Basically, the Eagles have both an offense and a defense, and the Giants have an offense....sometimes. Advantage, Eagles. I know picking Philly to win all these games, and riding with Brian Westbrook on my fantasy squad, is bound to catch up with me, but I need these PedoPhillies to win. Some call it selling your soul to the worst sports city in the country, I call in strictly bidness. Yup, that's how I roll...
Week 4 Picks
Green Bay Packers (-2) @ Minnesota Vikings
Indianapolis Colts (-9.5) vs Denver Broncos
New York Jets (-3) @ Buffalo Bills
Houston Texans (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ New York Giants
New England Patriots (-7.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals
*I was a little worried during the middle of the week when this game was taken off the board for a while, but now that it's back, I'm pumped and ready to roll. Again, I fail to see how a team with an average margin of victory of 26 points, is only favored by 7, but then again, I have a below .500 record this season. However, that's not gonna stop me from takin' the Pats, the points, and calling it a stone cold LOCK. More TDs for Moss, Brady and Lord knows who else. Pats roll, 41-16. Where the challenge is peeps? Where the challenge is?
Last Week: 4-2-0
Overall: 7-9-2 (.445)
FYI: I don't like choosing over/unders for my picks each week, but if you want a "sure thing", I'd take the over 46 on the Dallas/St. Louis game. Dallas can't defend the pass, St. Louis loves to pass, and the St. Louis D has little to offer in the form of resistance for Romo, TO, Witten, Barber and CO. Money in the bank...
I am a man of my word, and since I promised I would start giving you my college picks every week, here they are. I could take time to explain why I made each pick, but for both my good and yours, just assume I picked a team to win for one of the following reasons...
1) They are the better team...
2) Both teams are kind of even, but this team was at home...
3) The spread was too big, and I got slightly frightened (see: Hawaii, Texas)
And so help me God. If by posting my NCAA picks, I ruin the good karma I have going in my picks pool, I will strike down upon thee with fierce vengeance and furious anger! Haven't you seen my movies!!
NCAA Top 25 Picks
(1) USC (-20.5) @ Washington
(2) LSU (-40.5) @ Tulane
(3) Oklahoma (-22.5) @ Colorado
(4) Florida (-18) vs Auburn
(18) South Florida (+7) vs (5) West Virginia
(6) California (+6) @ (11) Oregon
Kansas St. (+14.5) @ (7) Texas
(8) Ohio St. (-23.5) @ Minnesota
(9) Wisconsin (-7.5) vs Michigan St.
(10) Rutgers (-16.5) vs Maryland
(12) Boston College vs UMASS (off)
(13) Clemson (-3) @ Georgia Tech
(14) Kentucky vs Florida Atlantic (off)
(15) Georgia (-15) vs Mississippi
(16) South Carolina (-13.5) vs Mississippi St.
(17) Virginia Tech (-18) vs North Carolina
Idaho (+25) vs (19) Hawaii
Illinois (+3) vs (21) Penn St.
(22) Alabama (+2.5) @ Florida St.
(23) Arizona St. (-14) @ Stanford
(24) Cincinnati (-14) @ San Diego St.
(25) Nebraska (-21) vs Iowa St.
Last Week: 12-9-0
Overall: 49-31-1 (.611)